® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele Federal Convention on Emerging Technologies A Forum on Homeland Security Las Vegas, 9 January 2002

® 9-11: Systemic Failure

® Lets Crush the Box

® Conflict Specifics for HIC Levels Off LIC Business is Good Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof High-Intensity ConflictLow-Intensity ConflictInternal War Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

® Conflict Facts for LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

® External Issues Complex Emergencies 29 Countries Refugees/Displaced 67 Countries Food Security 27 Countries Child Soldiers 42 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Peacekeeping Forces 18 UN, 20 Other Landmines 62 Countries Torture Common 94 Countries Corruption Common 78 Countries Censorship Very High 63 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

® Pentagon/IC Focused on 10% of the Threat

® Four Different Threats to America PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING GUERRILLA WAR CULTURAL WAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (BIG WAR) LOW TECH BRUTES (GANGS) HIGH TECH SEERS (HOME) LOW TECH SEERS (POOR) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY TERRORISM ECONOMIC WAR

® Intelligence Failure in Global Collection DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *28 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO

® Intelligence Failure in All-Source Processing 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist

® 11 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Vulnerabilities on the Home Front

® Individual as Threat and Target State as Threat and Target Defense Against Weapons Systems Over There Defense of Infrastructure Here at Home Offense Against Fixed Ground Offense Against Distributed Groups OLD NEW PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR GOVERNMENT IS PRIMARY ACTOR

® Inside Out Targeting Homeland Security First! Leadership Exposed and Often Ignorant Infrastructure Wide Open, Especially Data Population Completely Vulnerable Military Largely Irrelevant for Homeland Defense

® Civil Center Of Gravity State & Local Government, Non-State Actors Information Warfare Information Peacekeeping Open Source Intelligence Education Electronic Electronic Security & Counterintelligence Big SecretNot Secret PrivateSector Private Sector! INFORMATION COMMONS

® Open source information is more complex than secrets… New Intelligence Paradigm SI/TK Selective Importation System High/Firewall Just Enough, Just in Time Default to Validated OSINT SI/TK Validated OSINT OUTIN

® TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW 21st Century C4I

® Policy Intelligence Military Intelligence Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence Minuteman Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education Home Front and International Virtual Intelligence Community International Coalition Options

INFORMATION UNIVERSE Relevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret Decision-Maker Integration, Reflection & Decision RANDOMRANDOM SECRETSECRET EXISTING INPUT normal staff process, counterparts, family/friends OPEN SOURCE INPUT Internet & private sector fee-for-service Information Management Staff Collection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation FIND (free), GET (free), BUY (cheap), TASK (costly) ® 1 2 Ops-Logs-Intel-Real World Disconnects!

® Revolution Needed in Presidential Leadership PresidentCongressJudiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation Oversight Authority

® New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

® New Craft of Intelligence I I Lessons of History China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.Narrowly focused! Digital History Project $5M per year State/Library of Congress NSA Processing Digital History project will, each year, digitize essential Chinese, Islamic, and such other foreign language historical, political, social, economic, cultural, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly translating, visualizing, and modeling critical national security information.

® New Craft of Intelligence II II Global Coverage Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Global Knowledge Network $100M per year CINCs, State, Commerce NSA Processing NGO Data Warehouse and Network ($10M), Global Coverage Network of Operational Planning Groups ($10M), four regional OSINT collection, translation, and digitization centers ($40M), Digital Marshall Plan for Third World ($20M), OSINT Training ($10M), and Future Intelligence Collaborative Environment ($10M).

® New Craft of Intelligence III III National Intelligence Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation Homeland intelligence $1.5B a year Governors Have Lead FBI, State, INS, Army NSA Processing Homeland Security Intelligence Program (HSIP) adds $3B per year to National Foreign Intelligence Program (NFIP). Funds Global Coverage ($1.5B/yr), Homeland Intelligence ($1.5B/yr) to include national and state intelligence centers, two new FBI divisions (economic espionage and counterterrorism).

® New Craft of Intelligence IV IV Spies & Secrecy Narrowly focused! Foreign Intelligence & CI Fences $30B per year DGNI, Consolidated NFIP Get serious! Foreign intelligence and counterintelligence must be restructured via a National Security Act of 2002 with distinct agencies for collection, processing, analysis and geospatial information, new programs for counterintelligence, coalition intelligence and homeland intelligence, CINC-driven ground truth battalions and information peacekeeping programs, transfer of covert action to USSOCOM, elevation and expansion of NIC to include SIOs for states, new DGNI above DCI.

® Global Distributed Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Government Knowledge Intelligence Community 1B10B100B1 TRILLION Real World Dollars for Burden Sharing

® COALITION COMMANDER & STAFF INTELLIGENCE METHODS Requirements Definition Collection Management Source Discovery & Validation Multi-Source Fusion Compelling Timely Presentation Evaluation, Feedback, New Requirements Operational Security OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION Internet Commercial Online (Fee for Access) Gray Literature Subject-Matter Experts Commercial Geospatial Information Direct Ground and/or Aerial Reconnaissance Complex Human and/or Technical Services Create Common Open Source Intelligence for Multi-Laternal Sharing Securely Exploit Bi-Lateral Classified Intelligence from Nations Emerging NATO (SACLANT) Approach

® CINC G-2G-3 PSYOP POLAD PAO CIVIL AFFAIRS PROVOST MARSHAL COMBAT ENGINEERS Exchange with People Exchange with Embassies Exchange with Civil Authorities Exchange with Business Community Exchange with Media OSINT NET Practical Value for Government Operations Exchange with Allies and NGOs

® Homeland Security Intelligence Single national center, 24/7 operational intelligence, geospatial time plot (Army) Individual community intelligence centers for every Governor and 250K Mayor (Guard) Web-based virtual intelligence community for entry and evaluation of citizen inputs Web-based distributed database access for secure exploitation of credit, travel, other non-state, LEA, and USG watchlist databases

® Threats to the I from the T Errors & Omissions Fire Water Dishonest Insiders Disgruntled Insiders Outsider Virus

® GEOSPATIAL 101: MUST HAVE MAPS 10 meter synoptic wide area imagery from SPOT Image Corporation 1 meter precision urban imagery from Space Imaging Corporation <1 meter precision Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) from shuttle mission Decades worth of data extraction at the 1:10,000 to the 1:100,000 level from Russian military maps

® GEOSPATIAL 101: GPS ID FOR DATA Every building, every bridge, every tunnel, every critical infrastructure element. Every mobility platform, both owned and rented--especially latter. Every intelligence report must include GPS information for start, phase points, end points, as well as time and date stamping, both for the described event and for the report itself. From this will come early warning and pattern analysis gains.

® TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires Just Enough, Just in Time Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital Rolodexes/ Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work

® Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C

® Desktop Software Choices Plan Extend Report Share OSALAT Copernic Collect Excaliber Topic Analyst Workbench Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador GMS, Athens Aerotext Intelligent Miner For Text Analyze Content Extractor Information Portal, Comprendium ClearForest Suite CrimeLink Analyst Notebook **C-4-U Scout **CI Spider **Knowledge.Works **Market Signal Analyzer **E-Sense **Corporate Intelligence Service **TextAnalyst **Plumtree Corporate Portal **Powerize **Strategy! **Wincite **WisdomBuilder ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report Groove? EDGE? MindMap? SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements?

® Focus of Effort Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost

® SHOW ME THE MONEY! Striking a New Balance TECHNICAL $$ HUMINT $$ OSINT $$ LIFERS MID-CAREER HIRES DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS IC MANNINGIC DOLLARS UNCLASSIFIED SECRET TS IC PRODUCTION

® OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Virtual Intelligence Community Networks

® Intelligent IT $100B/Year Marketplace Federal smart IT and OSINT: >$5B/year US Corporate business intelligence: >15B/year State & Local smart IT and intel: >$5B/year Global smart IT and shared intel: >$75B/year Value of Common I to Generic T: Priceless

® References ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (495 pages, amazon.com) The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political (forthcoming in April) (pointers) (this/other briefs) (the global network)

® HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE T3 T2 T1

® The Way Ahead National Security Act DGNI in WH with three subordinates: –D/Classified Intel. –Chairman, NIC (++) –D/$1.5B OSINT Homeland Security Intelligence Program –24/7 OpIntel Center –State & City Centers NRO=Technical Collection NIMA=Geospatial/USGS NSA=Processing/ICMAP++ CIA=Analysis/ExpertNet FBI adds econ/CT Divisions New Clandestine Service State/JFCOM new roles –Digital Marshall Plan/FICE++ –Ground Truth Battalions

® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele Federal Convention on Emerging Technologies A Forum on Homeland Security Las Vegas, 9 January 2002