Scenarios and Decision Support Systems Monika Zurek FAO, Rome Greg Kiker University of Florida GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 30 Aug 05

Overview of the talk  Looking into the future  What are scenarios? Why use scenarios?  Decision Support Systems  The GECAFS scenarios component

Looking into the future  Out of curiosity  For scientific exploration  For decision-making Decisions are based on expected outcomes and the trade-offs they imply Decisions involve uncertainty about how the future will unfold  For planning purposes/strategic planning exercise

Sources of Uncertainty when thinking about the Future Ignorance Understanding is limited Surprise The unexpected and the novel can alter directions Volition Human choice matters Source: P. Raskin

Methods for looking into the future Predictions are seen by the public and decision makers as things that will happen no matter what they do. Forecast is the best estimate from a particular method, model, or individual. Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions about drivers and boundary conditions; they often assume that these will not change. Projections lead to "if this, then that" statements. Scenarios……

Scenario Definitions  Plausible stories about how the future might unfold from existing patterns, new factors and alternative human choices. The stories can be told in the language of both words and numbers (Raskin, in press).  Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000).  A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996).  Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what might happen under particular assumptions (MA).

Why use scenarios?  Purpose of scenarios: Information dissemination Scientific exploration Decision-making tool  Understanding all factors influencing the future  Robust strategies that work under different worlds  Different process of stakeholder involvement in scenario development  Understanding and communicating the main assumptions on which people base their notion of the future

Types of scenarios Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios Baseline vs. alternative/policy scenarios Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a combination

Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios exploratory scenarios present -> future to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments to test impacts of implementing specific policies anticipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios) present <- future to investigate how specific end state can be reached to show how to achieve environmental targets Source: Henrichs, EEA 2003

Baseline vs Alternative Scenarios baseline scenarios (also ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios) describe a future development / state in which no new policies or measures are implemented apart from those already adopted or agreed upon alternative scenarios (also ‘policy’ scenarios) take into account new policies or measures additional to those already adopted or agreed upon and/or that assumptions on key driving forces diverge from those depicted in a baseline scenario. Source: Henrichs, EEA 2003

Qualitative vs Quantitative Scenarios qualitative scenarios are narrative descriptions of future developments (i.e. presented as storylines, diagrams, images, etc.). quantitative scenarios are numerical estimates of future developments (i.e. presented as tables, graphs, maps, etc.) usually based on available data, past trends and/or mathematical models. Source: Henrichs, EEA 2003

Boundaries Spatial Thematic Temporal Boundaries Spatial Thematic Temporal Key Dimensions Multi-dimensional space of variables Key Dimensions Multi-dimensional space of variables Current Situation Historic context Institutional description Quantitative accounts Current Situation Historic context Institutional description Quantitative accounts Driving Forces Trends Processes Driving Forces Trends Processes Critical Uncertainties Resolution alters course of events Critical Uncertainties Resolution alters course of events Anatomy of Scenarios Plot Captures dynamics Communicates effectively Plot Captures dynamics Communicates effectively Image of the Future Source: P. Raskin 2002

Steps in a scenario exercise  Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement  Get creative  Think about the long history  Identify main areas of uncertainty (focal questions)  Identify main drivers of change  Develop first set of storylines  Critically assess storylines (consider shocks and surprises)  Decide on modeling capacity  Evaluate scenario implications  Stakeholder feedback session & iterations  Final write up & communication

‚Good‘ scenarios should... ... be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘) ... be internally consistent and coherent ... be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity ... meet the goals of scenario exercise!!!

Decision Support Systems  Many definitions, many visions, many versions…  DSS Integrate Tools Models Databases Visualization (GIS, graphics, charts…) Decision analysis (MCDA, trade-off analysis, linear programming)

Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators User-Defined “Slow and Fast” Time Steps Management Options “Warning Lights” Tabbed panes with several time series charts Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display Reset Button Example DSS: QnD System

Challenges in Building DSS  DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts  Model integration is difficult and technically challenging  Not helpful in unearthing assumptions  Transparency versus Ease of Use  Integration with scenario planning - “More gaps than links”

CARSEA Scenarios Neo-Plantation Economy Quantity Over Quality Growing Asymmetries Diversify Together Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc. Climate Scenarios Precipitation Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency Sea Level Rise QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0 Stochastic relationships Time series values Incremental change Socio-Economic Drivers Climatic Drivers QnD Scenarios Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change Etc…

How the scenarios method has been used so far  Strategic planning exercises during cold war period  Future studies in 1970s (e.g. Club of Rome)  Royal Dutch Shell develops scenarios method for business planning in 1970/80s  Scenarios used as conflict management tool (Montefleur scen. in SA, Colombia)  Scenarios exercises as part of integrated, global, environmental assessments, such as the IPCC, GEO, MA

GEO-3 Scenarios Global Environmental Outlook by UNEP Source: UNEP (2000) The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries. In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals. The Security First scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses. Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.

SRES-IPCC Scenarios Special Report on Emission Scenarios by IPCC  IPCC scenarios widely used (e.g. unfccc negotiations)  GHG emission up to 2100  4 scenario ‘families’ A1 : market driven, … A2 : fragmented dev., … B1 : market & policy, … B2 : local green solution, … Source: Nakicenovic et al (2000)

The Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

GECAFS – research focus 1. Classifying and characterizing the major food systems existing today for GEC studies, 2. Investigating the vulnerability of existing food systems to GEC and its consequences for different parts of society, 3. Sketching plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will effect food systems, 4. Based on the analysis of plausible futures, devising decision support systems for the formulation of diverse policy-instruments to adapt global food system to GEC.

Scenarios Component Research Questions  What are plausible future changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions that will affect food systems?  What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses?  How best can global scenarios be linked to the regional scale in order to capture regional-level factors relevant to food systems?

Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS IPCCGEO3MA A1Policy first Global Orchestration A2 Market first Order from Strength B1 Security first TechnoGarden B2Sustainability first Adapting Mosaic

Linking global and regional scenario exercises Global Scenarios IGPCARSAF Preparatory phase Feedback Regional GECAFS Scenarios

Objectives of the meeting  Update participants on the latest GECAFS developments  Familiarize participants with the concepts, purpose and methodology of scenarios/plausible futures development  Discuss and agree on the main uncertainties for the region with respect to food systems and global environmental change developments  Develop focal questions for the Caribbean GECAFS scenarios and begin the scenario development process  Discuss and decide on scenario quantification

Steps for building the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios  Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement  Get creative  Think about the long history  Identify main areas of uncertainty (focal questions)  Identify main drivers of change  Develop first set of storylines  Critically assess storylines (consider shocks and surprises)  Decide on modeling capacity  Evaluate scenario implications  Stakeholder feedback session & iterations  Final write up & communication