OSS’ 04 OSINT and Global Issues 13 April 2004 Joe Mazzafro APL STILO OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (OEF) OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF) INTELLIGENCE LESSONS LEARNED how OSINT can help OSS’ 04 OSINT and Global Issues 13 April 2004 Joe Mazzafro APL STILO UNCLASSIFIED

What Are We Going To Talk About? What Have We Observed? What Have We Learned? What Have We Relearned? What Do We Need? What Do “We” Think This All Means? How Open Source Can Help What Would I Like You To Take Away? UNCLASSIFIED

The conflict in Afghanistan has taught us more about the future of our military than a decade of blue ribbon panels and think-thank symposiums. These past two months have shown that an innovative doctrine and high-tech weaponry can shape and dominate an unconventional conflict George W. Bush 11 Dec 01 UNCLASSIFIED

National Security Advisor’s Five Lessons Learned from OEF Wars of consequence are not relics of a bygone era There is a need to enhance homeland security; the military has a role in guarding CONUS We have to deny sanctuary to terrorists Terrorists and other adversaries can not achieve access to weapons of mass destructions Global terror demands a global [coalition] solution Condoleza Rice speaking @ SAIS on 29 Apr 02 UNCLASSIFIED

OIF Intelligence Lessons Learned JFCOM: SPEED KILLS; Intel (along with logistics had trouble keeping up with the speed of advance BOB SCALES: NEW STYLE OF WAR Smaller unit size, more maneuverability, increased fire power Own the clock Cultural Awareness needed to contextualize Situational Awareness UNCLASSIFIED

What Have We Observed? The importance of Intel Prep of the Battlefield The positive effects of persistent ISR The importance accurate and available geospacial information The significant value added of “eyes on target” The dramatic impact of EBT and the ability to dynamically retarget There is a both a “home” and an “away”element to fighting terrorism Internet is Al Qeda’s C2ISR backbone UNCLASSIFIED

What Have We Learned? Effective use of multiple ISR systems requires management and is comms intensive MASINT is an effective tool when operationalized Technical sensors are not well suited for fixing people in time and space High demand/low density systems continue to negatively impact operations The poor interface between foreign and domestic intel in our IC UNCLASSIFIED

What Have We Learned (cont.) ? We lack basic intelligence on places where we are likely to fight Geography, economy, political power structure, bios There are quality issues with certain IC products Its hard to share classified intelligence with coalition partners Reach Back for Intelligence didn’t work UNCLASSIFIED

What Have We Relearned? The importance of ALL source analysis Integration/interoperability is the necessary condition for data sharing; THEN YOU HAVE TO WANT TO SHARE You have to understand what is not happening too Intel is competing with ops & log for bandwidth Open Sources are always there UNCLASSIFIED

What Do We Need? More UAVs, especially ones that can be controlled by tactical ground units Improved tactical SIGINT against cell phones and email Tools for video exploitation Better data mining tools and regimes Inexpensive reliable ground sensors A better system for tracking maritime cargo Everybody says they need more HUMINT Language skills; cultural analysis Agents? UNCLASSIFIED

What Do We Need? (Continued) The means to deploy an optimal mix of terrestrial, air breathing and space based ISR assets Dedicated fusion centers for engaged forces with state of the art integration and display tech; more smart push Intel architectures, conops, TTPs, and systems training (this is too complicated for OJT!) UNCLASSIFIED

What Do “We” Think This All Means? HUMINT is often oversold As weapon sys become more “intel centric” the importance of ISR increases proportionately The concept of “shooter to sensor” is emerging Speed matters Intel foot print forward must be reduced Knowledge is like productivity: means you can do more with less IC no longer has a monopoly on relevant info UNCLASSIFIED

How can Open Source Help? Provide context for understanding classified reporting Instant competitive analysis Fill data gaps;provide external QA Reduce size of intel footprint Availability and shareability Adversary perceptions and reactions if not intentions UNCLASSIFIED

What Would I Like You To Take Away? Think of Intel as a modern gun director OSINT is an important input When the IC doesn’t deliver, Operators will find other sources IC’s monopoly is over Its not All Source without OPEN SOURCE Good Intel is like air, comms, and avgas: YOU DON’T MISS IT UNTIL YOU DON’T HAVE IT UNCLASSIFIED