® The C4I Revolution: Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, & Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has Done Improves National Security Robert David Steele OSS.NET 9 January 2003 San Antonio, Texas

® 9-11: Systemic Failure

® 9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot Collection: –Satellites deaf –Spies incompetent Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode Translation: lack of personnel or funds Processing: no single central OpIntel plot Analysis –Did not connect the dots (dots found to have been known) –Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history) Liaison: business as usual, no demands Mind-set: muddled

® 9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog World Trade Center 1st Bombing –Sidelined to law enforcement –Documents not translated –Ignored bin Ladens open declaration of war –No change to visa or border security process Global Terrorism –Ignored warnings on cockpit and airport safety (industry against) –Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as cost of doing business –Accepted lack of action by other nations

® DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

® 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

® World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Companies Citizens

® Conflict Facts for LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

® Ethnic Fault Lines Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

® Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution

® Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

® Asymmetric War Whatever it takes-- –Fight dirty –Fight smart –Sabotage –Bug bombs –Electronic attack –Anthrax = panic –Ju jitsu warfare $500K = $100B loss

® 13 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Vulnerabilities on the Home Front

® Individual as Threat and Target State as Threat and Target Defense Against Weapons Systems Over There Defense of Infrastructure Here at Home Offense Against Fixed Ground Offense Against Distributed Groups OLD NEW PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR

® Unbalanced Power Smart Mobs Liberated Thinking Nomadic Connections Global Grid Power Swarmed Resources 24/7 Always On Geospatial Foundation Reputation is Power Dumb Organizations Stove-Pipe Drones Hard Copy Files File Clerks Weak Link Locked-Up Resources 9-to-5 Compartments Legal Foundation Power is Reputation

® Dealing With Smart Mobs Does Not Work Nuclear Bombs Aircraft Carriers Tanks & Artillery Secret Satellites Not So Secret Spies Young Kid Analysts Political Bluffing Could Possibly Work Deep Understanding Financial Incentives Focused Education Coalition Intelligence Coalition Special Forces Tracking Individuals Killing Individuals

® TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires Just Enough, Just in Time Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital Rolodexes/ Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work C4I Big Picture Four processing quadrants

® Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C Processing Desktop: Generic Analytic Functionalities

® Processing Desktop No Easy Solutions Plan Extend Report Share OSALAT Copernic Collect Excaliber Topic Analyst Workbench Identifier, SIFT, OnTopic, Labrador GMS, Athens Aerotext Intelligent Miner For Text Analyze Content Extractor Information Portal, Comprendium ClearForest Suite CrimeLink Analyst Notebook **C-4-U Scout **CI Spider **Knowledge.Works **Market Signal Analyzer **E-Sense **Corporate Intelligence Service **TextAnalyst **Plumtree Corporate Portal **Powerize **Strategy! **Wincite **WisdomBuilder ** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report Groove? EDGE? MindMap? SYSTRAN+? Other CATALYST Elements?

® New C4I Strategic Priorities Open Source Collection Multi-Media Processing Analytic Toolkits Analytic Tradecraft Defensive Security Leadership Training Culture

® Administrations Shortfalls Unbalanced Staff Failed Intelligence Maginot Line Military No Counterintelligence Education Broken National IT Fragmented Public Health Broken Water - No Strategy Energy - No Strategy

® White House Staff Upgrade

® Security Shortfalls Intelligence Failed, Not Changing the Cultures Heavy Metal Military, Useless 90% of the Time No National Counterintelligence Agency or State & Local Counterintelligence, Private Sector Uncovered

® Prosperity Shortfalls Education and IT fragmented (content, connectivity, coordination, C4 security on Net) Public health unfunded, children falling by wayside No water or energy strategy

® South America Today 15% of the Conflict, <5% of the Budget? GOODBADUGLY Costa RicaHaitiMexico ChileColombiaBrazil UraguayVenezuelaCuba El SalvadorArgentinaAll Others CultureViolencePoverty

® OAS CTF Strategists Advise Policy Constabulary Stabilize Failed States Domestic Threats Water, Food, Health Citizen Education Regional Network Force on Force Train Local Services Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch Small Wars Control Territory Ground Truth Observe with Warriors Eyes Regional Agile Forces for Peace

® Regional Intelligence Center OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Deputy for Collection Country B Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Deputy for Processing Country C Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Analysis Country D Chief of Center Country A Deputy for Counterintelligence Country E Deputy for Covert Action Country F

® Necessary Changes in Emphasis Striking a better balance Must strike a better balance between –technical (-) and human assets (+) –secret (-) and open sources (+) –hard power (-) and soft power (+) –reaction (-) and prevention (+) –unilateral (-) and truly multilateral combined operations (+)

® Proposed Strategy: 1 + iii: Need huge increase in soft power capabilities BIG WARSMALL WAROOTWREAR AREA Base RightsSmall WarsWaterIntelligence Protect CanalConstabularyFoodBorder Patrol Ground TruthHealthPort Security 1iii Electronic Protect Oil TrainingEnvironment Public HealthEducation 50% 15% 20% 15% 250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 38B

® Contact Information Robert David Steele OSS.NET POB 369 Oakton, VA Voice: (703) Fax: (703) Web: