® Strategic Threat Assessment: A Regional Approach to Intelligence, Force Structure, & Combined Operations Robert David Steele OSS.NET 3 March 2003 Miami, Florida

® Gorillas Can Be Difficult We are sensitive to your concerns about US unilateralism We need your expertise and investments as much as you need ours Security cooperation today is more complex, non-traditional

® Conflict Facts for LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

® Global Threats to U.S. Security *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

® World War III Players Bacteria/ Environment Nation- States Gangs & Mobs Companies & NGOs Money, Objects, Individuals

® US Incentives for Listening Red Arrows --mass exodus to US/EU/RU Black Stars--plagues that travel Blue Crosses-- investment barrier None of these is subject to traditional military power--but a combined regional force with teeth can apply soft power well.

® Special Challenges Cultural & Historical Intelligence Economic (Trade) Security Intelligence Environmental Security Intelligence Financial (Money) Security Intelligence Medical Security Intelligence National Security Intelligence –Acquisition, Concepts, Force Structure

® New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

® Seven Intelligence Tribes The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans

® OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Creating the World Brain Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams

® Regional Intelligence Center OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Deputy for Collection Country B Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Deputy for Processing Country C Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Analysis Country D Chief of Center Country A Deputy for Counterintelligence Country E Deputy for Covert Action Country F

® OAS CTF Strategists Advise Policy Constabulary Stabilize Failed Areas Domestic Threats Water, Food, Health Citizen Education Regional Network Force on Force Train & Fight Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch Small Wars Control Territory Ground Truth Observe with Warriors Eyes Regional Agile Forces for Peace

® Contact Information Robert David Steele OSS.NET POB 369 Oakton, VA Voice: (703) Fax: (703) Web: