U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Sue Haseltine Associate Director for Biology U.S. Geological Survey David Schad Chair, Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Subcommittee on Climate Change and Director of Fish and Wildlife at the MN Department of Natural Resources Lynn Scarlett Deputy Secretary U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Change Science: Helping Energy, Water, and Wildlife Managers Respond

Climate Change: Impacts on Natural Systems Dr. Sue Haseltine Associate Director for Biology U.S. Geological Survey November 30, 2007

Global average temperature increased 0.74°C in the past 100 years and is expected to increase another 0.4°C in the next 20 years Higher the latitude, greater the warming Average precipitation increased globally and across most of the U.S. © IPCC, 2007 Atmospheric Change Intensity of rainfall events increased over most land areas -- but so did the number of dry days Increased occurrence and intensity of droughts Drought Index Trend

Ocean temperature increased from surface down to at least 3000 m Increase in N. Atlantic hurricane activity Geographic Variability in the Rate of Sea Level Rise (1950 to 2000) © IPCC, 2007 Observed ocean change: (acceleration or natural variability?) Global sea level rise mm/yr during 20th century mm/yr during

Observed change in ice and snow: Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk 7.4% per decade since 1978 Less snow at low altitudes and earlier spring runoff Mountain glaciers declined globally © IPCC, 2007 Glacier Mass March-April Snow Cover in the Northern Hemisphere © IPCC, 2007

Highly Vulnerable Natural Systems Arid Ecosystems High Latitude, High Altitude Ecosystems Cryosphere Glacial fed regions Wetlands and Freshwater Ecosystems Low-lying coastal areas Megadeltas Coral reefs

Examples of Ecological Consequences 1.Higher winter temperatures and drought lead to pest outbreaks and forest die-off in western N. America In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak ( Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos) (2004)

2.Lower soil moisture leads to more intense, frequent, and widespread wildfires Examples of Ecological Consequences Wildfire trend in western USA since 1970 correlates with observed higher temperatures and reduced moisture availability. Source: Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan and Swetnam, Science (2006 ) Wildfires lead to erosion, flash flooding, and habitat loss. Rill erosion on a burned hill slope after the Buffalo Creek Fire (Photo by John A. Moody)

Examples of Ecological Consequences 3.As sea level rise accelerates -- shoreline erosion, wetland submergence, and salinity increase along low-lying coasts Accelerated land loss along AK coast

Examples of Ecological Consequences 4. As sea ice disappears Change in optimal polar bear habitat minus

Examples of Ecological Consequences 5.Changes in species phenology and distribution As geographic ranges of plants and animals migrate poleward, some species will be decoupled from habitats or prey. Current Projected under doubling of CO 2 WARBLER DISTRIBUTION WARBLER DISTRIBUTION (Burkett et al., 2005)

Globally ~20% to ~30% of species will be at increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100 if global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2 to 3°C above pre-industrial levels (medium confidence). “Current conservation practices are generally poorly prepared to adapt to this level of change, and effective adaptation responses are likely to be costly to implement (high confidence)” IPCC (2007) concludes: Bull Trout (FWS photo) American Pika

While precise outcomes on habitats and individual species are difficult to project, present knowledge indicates that many species will very likely be displaced or extirpated.

1.Reduce non-climate stressors on habitats Examples of potential adaptation

2.Adjust harvests of fish and wildlife Examples of potential adaptation FWS Photo 3. Establish corridors for migration Cropped wetlands in the lower MS Valley

Examples of potential adaptation FWS Photo 4. Change management prescriptions for habitats, allow flexibility that is needed to conserve species ecosystem function Example: prescribed fire to reduce fuel load, promote desired vegetation, or control invasive plants 5. Use adaptive management with strong monitoring strategies

USGS works with partners to provide research, modeling, and monitoring to develop strategies for adaptation on the landscape.