Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Presentation to ISM-Dallas January 10, 2008 A Falling Dollar, $100 Oil, and the Sub-Prime Mess: Is a Recession Inevitable?

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Presentation transcript:

Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Presentation to ISM-Dallas January 10, 2008 A Falling Dollar, $100 Oil, and the Sub-Prime Mess: Is a Recession Inevitable?

Gross domestic product Source: Commerce Department Real Economic Growth Q 2007: 4.9%

Monthly change, in thousands Source: Labor Department Dec. ’07: 18,000 ’ Nonfarm Payrolls

In percent, seasonally adjusted: Source: U.S. Department of Labor ’ U. S. Jobless Rate

Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Nov. 2007: $11.87 trillion Personal Income

Total retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Commerce Department Nov. 2007: $385.8 billion ’ Retail Sales

In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Source: Commerce Department Construction Spending Nov. 2007: $1.17 trillion

Nonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Department of Labor ’ Productivity

Oiloholics

Twin Concerns

History Lesson

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Deficit in International Goods & Services Trade Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance Oct. 2007: $57.8 billion

Index, 2002=100, seasonally adjusted Source: Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production Nov. 2007: 113.9

Bigger Role in Economy

Falling Dollar, Smaller Deficits Source: U.S. Census Bureau, JPMorgan Chase

New private housing starts during the month, in millions, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Source: Dept. of Commerce; Dept. of H.U.D.; Census Bureau Housing Starts Nov. Starts: 1.19

Single-family homes (in thousands) Source: Commerce Department New-Home Sales Nov. 2007: 647,000

Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units. Source: The National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales Nov. 2007: 5.0 million

Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007

Highest Subprime Exposure Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007

Subprime Loans in 2006 Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007 Number of Loans % of Total Loans High Rate Loan Volume High Rate Loans as % of Total Loans Dallas-Plano- Irving 47,207 (15)29.0% (130)$5.162 b (27)22.4% (176) Fort Worth- Arlington 24,638 (37)29.7 % (109)$2.330 b (57)24.0% (135) U.S.3,995, %$632.5 b24.3%

Dip in Household Ownership

Home Value Decline

Construction Lending And Sub Prime Loans

Percentage change from previous month, seasonally adjusted. Source: Labor Department Producer Prices ’

Percentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Prices

From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1987 = 100 Source: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Nov. 2007: 87.3

Index of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 1996 = 100. Source: The Conference Board Leading Indicators Nov. 2007: ’

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Unemployment Rate, U. S., Texas, & D/FW U. S. Dec = 5.0% Texas Nov = 4.1% D/FW Nov = 4.0% U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted

Payroll Employment in Dallas- Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division (annual averages) *Through October 2007 Source: Texas Workforce Commission