The specification notes that you must be able to describe methods of earthquake prediction. You must also understand the social consequences of earthquake prediction. You must be able to describe the measures designed to reduce the impact of earthquakes.

Throughout history, people have attempted to predict earthquakes. seismologists have been working toward a goal to make earthquake forecasting about as reliable as weather forecasting. They aim to predict not only the date and location of a quake, but also the intensity.

Seismic Gap Theory The ``seismic gap'' theory postulates that over the long run all parts of the fault must average about the same level of movement per time. A large and longstanding ``seismic gap'' is usually interpreted to mean that a significant earthquake should be expected.

Detailed Measurements of gases Increased Fluctuation in Radon (and helium) Gas Emission Deep wells have been noted to experience an increase in the release of radon gas in the area around a forthcoming earthquake. However, this data is scarce and it is not known if it is a clue to coming quakes or just a normal occurrence, not related to seismicity.

Stress in Rocks Stress builds up in the rocks adjacent to an active fault. This will continue to build until the fault ruptures and the energy is released. Strain gauges are used to monitor the build up of stress and so indicate when an earthquake may happen. However, it cannot predict an accurate date and time.

Water Levels It has been noted that groundwater levels do rise very shortly before an earthquake. However, this does not always happen and it gives little warning.

Ground levels As stress builds up along a fault, the ground level can change. The ground often tilts or rises in the area of a coming earthquake. Unfortunately, many processes cause the ground surface to rise or tilt which makes this technique difficult to use as a predicting tool. However, this method has been useful in Japan

Changes in P Wave Velocity It is thought that the properties of rocks change before an earthquake and so the velocity at which various earthquake waves travel through them might change as well. It has been noticed that the P-wave velocity changed by about 10%-15% before earthquakes. The velocity decreases for a while, then increases back to normal just before the main shock...at least sometimes. These measurements are very easy to make because the velocity of earthquake waves are precisely what seismometers are built to measure.

Changes in Electrical Conductivity The electrical conductivity of rocks in the area around earthquakes has been known to change just before shocks. The methods success is encouraging because lab results are consistent for almost everyone who performs experiments. This could be a very helpful clue to forecasting earthquakes.

Patterns of Foreshocks and Aftershocks In terms of prediction research, the most effort has been put into studying variation in seismicity rate. But, all of the studying has not produced a definite answer. Seismologists study the pattern of aftershocks and foreshocks. In Italy, China, and California, earthquakes have been successfully predicted using a noticed increase in background seismic activity. Tiny shocks increase in number and magnitude leading up to a large shock. If these foreshocks can be recognized as such in enough time to warn people in the necessary areas, many lives can be saved.

Strange animal behaviour Examples include an intense fear that appears to make some animals cry and bark for hours, and others flee in panic. Equally characteristic is the apparent opposite effect of wild animals appearing confused, disoriented, and losing their usual fear of people. Some other common observations are that animals appear agitated, excited, nervous, overly aggressive, or seem to be trying to burrow or hide.

Animal behaviour and Haicheng On February 4, 1975 the Chinese successfully evacuated the city of Haicheng several hours before a 7.3 magnitude earthquake-- based primarily on observations of unusual animal behaviour. 90% of the city's structures were destroyed in the quake, but the entire city had been evacuated before it struck. Nearly 90,000 lives were saved. Since then China has also had some false alarms, so their system is certainly not fool- proof.