® National Security Policy Survey of the Literature EMERGING THREATS Robert David Steele OSS CEO Updated 19 August 2002

® 2 Plan of the Brief You have 150 books in the lecture handout. Will only cover 50 or so of them now. Complete text reviews for over 350 books are at OSS.Net, at Amazon, and in the red and green books Information Intelligence Emerging Threats Strategy & Structure Blowback, Dissent & International Relations US Politics, Leadership & the Future of Life

® 3 Relevant Readings on Emerging Threats

® 4 Emerson on American Jihad

® 5 Anon on Terrorism in USA Jewish McCarthyism against Palestinians Arabic versions of Islamic charity information Utility of Arabic historical materials & US public records FBI ineptitude

® 6 Peters on Beyond Terror US policy corruption on Saudi Arabia Military built for Soviets, not terrorists US government not sharing information within itself nor with its public and Congress-- needlessly uninformed

® 7 Islamic Levinthian Case study of Malaysia and Pakistan--differing approached to harnessing Islam In the end, both states have to control their fanatics--one did, one did not...

® 8 Latitudes & Longtitudes Only the host society can penetrate itself enough to effectively restrain or delegitimize its own suicide bombers. Outsiders can't. …we have been allowing a double game to go on with our Middle East allies for years, and that has to stop."

® 9 Dearth et al on CYBERWAR Infosphere as critical area of operations Laws in a vacuum PsyOps, deception, information operations, information peacekeeping Critical infrastructure Education vital

® 10 Peters on the New Threat New warrior class consists of thugs whose best path to wine, women, and cash is via war Negotiation with such thugs is futile--sometimes you simply have to go in and kill them Timing is everything

® 11 Pelton on Ground Truth Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud You dont have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security We simply are not grasping essential ground truths

® 12 Shawcross on Endless Conflict Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict Good will without strength makes things worse

® 13 Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."

® 14 Power on Genocide Documents some major modern genocides Discusses what was known, what could be known, and what was ignored Policy and public are turning their backs

® 15 Heidenrich on Genocide 18 genocides going on today--scores more over time Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented Indifference is murder Global force needed

® 16 Klare on Resource Wars Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such

® 17 de Villiers on Water It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment $100M will buy one desalination plant or one major warship

® 18 Helvarg on Oceans Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action

® 19 Thornton on Industrialized Poison Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk Good science is code for value-free policy that risks citizens long-term health for short-term corporate profit

® 20 Garrett on Globalized Disease Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics

® 21 Price-Smith on Health of Nations Emerging and re- emerging infectuous diseases (ERIDs) Disease + destitution destroys development Environmental decline spreads disease Health is fundamental to regional security

® 22 Environmental Security Presents desperate need for inter-agency coordination and information sharing, the looming catastrophic problems with rain forests, seabed resources, and inland water scarcity, ending with the urgent need for a national security "game plan that takes long view.

® 23 You Are What You Eat Obesity reduces national people power Fast food chains are killing family farms and exploiting poorest class of laborers What McDonalds does overseas in our name is dangerous

® 24 Closing of the American Mind The real community of man…is the community of those who seek the truth… Trained ignorance, bad thought, ideological opinions are shutting out the real world….

® 25 Soros on Capitalism Open society is endangered Market without regulation & restraint causes mass instability Must restore morality and community as part of the economic equation

® 26 Hate & Ignorance They hate hamburger virus and US foreign policy, not US or Americans per se The real lesson here is that Americans have lost touch with reality US is a global abuser but public unwitting