Final First Round Scenario Analysis Results David Ory Metropolitan Transportation Commission March 23, 2011 Presentation for Regional Modeling Working Group

2 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

3 Year 2005 (version 0.0). Year 2020, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0). Year 2020, Initial Vision (v 0.0). Year 2035, Current Regional Plans (v 0.0). Year 2035, Initial Vision (v 0.0).

4 Which scenarios. GHG first. From air basin to nine counties. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

percent ARB Target Initial Vision with T Initial Vision percent-11.6 percent Current Regional Plans percent

6 ARB Target -8.8 percent Current Regional Plans -7.0 percent 2020 Initial Vision percent

7 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

8 Population Synthesizer

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12 Price Quantity Roadway & Transit Supply

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15 Image source: sedonakathy.wordpress.com Automobile Ownership

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17 Image source: flickr.com/sbisson Scheduling

CRP

IVS

21 Image source: flickr.com/bigtimes Activity Locations/ Travel Distance

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24 Image sources: sedonakathy.wordpress.com; greencar.com Travel Mode Choice

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CRP

IVS

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30 Image source: flickr.com/SpokkerJones Transit Utilization

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32 Image source: flickr.com/cookieevans5 Roadway Utilization

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39 Year 2005 VMT by Household Location: Year 2035 Current Regional Plans VMT by Household Location:

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41 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets  See Planning Cmte Packet. Next steps. Questions.

42 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.

43 Find & Fix Bugs Continue sensitivity tests (HOT & gas prices) Update runs using model version 0.1 Find & Fix Bugs Continue RTP analytical work

44 Which scenarios. GHG first. Travel model results. Other targets. Next steps. Questions.