CDM and Transportation COP-9 December 2003

Mauricio Hurtado Mauricio Hurtado Climate Change, Foreign Affairs Ministry, Chile Jodi Browne Jodi Browne Climate Change & Energy, IISD Eduardo Sanhueza Eduardo Sanhueza Principle - CC&D, alternative member EB Franz Tattenbach Franz Tattenbach FUNDECOR, Costa Rica, Vice-chair of EB and Meth Panel

Transport and Climate Change The transport sector is responsible for ~ 25% of CO2 emissions worldwide, and this contribution is increasing The transport sector is responsible for ~ 25% of CO2 emissions worldwide, and this contribution is increasing  Key factors  Travel activity (vehicle kilometers traveled, ton- kilometers)  Mode split  Vehicle energy intensity (efficiency, loading)  Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)

Transport & Climate Change The rate of increase of CO2 emissions from transport is much higher in developing countries than developed countries. The rate of increase of CO2 emissions from transport is much higher in developing countries than developed countries. Developing country growth = 3.2% per year Developed country growth = 1% per year (World Energy Outlook, 2001)

CO2 Emissions From Transport Sperling & Salon, 2002

Transport & CDM Of the  80 projects currently in the CDM pipeline only 5 are transportation…of those, none address travel demand none address travel demand CDM represents a crucial opportunity to develop a sustainable transportation sector e.g. Chile CDM represents a crucial opportunity to develop a sustainable transportation sector e.g. Chile - increased funding flows - enhanced capacity - expanded technology

In Chile, transportation represents 2 nd largest source of GHG emissions in the energy sector - approximately 33% In Chile, transportation represents 2 nd largest source of GHG emissions in the energy sector - approximately 33%

Transport Emissions in Chile

Growth in Travel ‘Drives’ GHGs

Transport & CDM Project: Chile Project Partners: IISD, CCAP, CC&D, CGTS Funded by Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) Funded by Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) Explore the potential to reduce GHGs and promote transportation CDM projects in Chile Explore the potential to reduce GHGs and promote transportation CDM projects in Chile Project Goal To be of technical assistance to Chileans to reduce GHG emissions and promote involvement in the CDM, specifically in the transportation sector To be of technical assistance to Chileans to reduce GHG emissions and promote involvement in the CDM, specifically in the transportation sector Potential for replication Help establish precedent for assessing transportation CDM projects Help establish precedent for assessing transportation CDM projects

1) Area 10: Technology switch of buses within downtown area of Santiago 2) Bike Infrastructure: Developing bike lanes, storage, facilities 3) Location Efficiency: Concentrating mixed-use developments around metro stations Possible CDM projects currently being examined…

Area 10: Technology switching  Santiago: new design for public transport  Segregated routes for articulated buses (Min EURO3)  Feeding areas for buses of lower capacity (progressive switch from EURO1,2,3)  Exploring potential for CDM to implement hybrid diesel-electric buses in the feeding areas  Demonstration: Area 10 (downtown core = 34 buses)

Area 10: Technology switching Methodological questions… Methodological questions… Set baseline as current or marginal technology?Set baseline as current or marginal technology? Monitoring:Monitoring: Fuel based (sales)?...OR Distance based (calculate fuel use from VKT & efficiency)?  What to do with crediting for a program…over a number of years – incentive declines…  Because of interest to keep baseline stable…perverse incentives?

Bicycle Infrastructure  Increase non-motorized trips in Santiago  Introduction of further bicycle infrastructure (lanes)  Measure the emissions reductions from increased travel by bikes on a specific route (modeling, observation, etc.)  Quantify those reductions and develop as a CDM project develop as a CDM project

Bicycle Infrastructure – ?’s Methodological questions… Compare project to current or future projected mode split? Compare project to current or future projected mode split? What to do if data is not available for short (bike appropriate) trips? What to do if data is not available for short (bike appropriate) trips? Monitoring: Monitoring: Surveys? (determine mode choice without bikes) Counting? (what sampling frequency is sufficient?) Modeling?

Location Efficiency - background Urban form can: - Reduce number of motorized trips - Increase share of non-motorized trips - Reduce travel distances, increase vehicle occupancy rates Through: DENSITY – i.e. lot size DIVERSITY – mix of land uses & proximity DESIGN – street layout, block design, parking

Policy initiatives aimed at impacting travel demand:  Location-Efficient Mortgage (LEM)  Policy Guidance on using land use measures to improve Air Quality (US EPA)  ‘Transit-Oriented Development’ (TOD) initiatives, such as Hong Kong’s metro station concession program; US programs (WMATA, BART, etc.)  Other financial incentives, i.e., aimed at developers Location Efficiency - examples

Location Efficiency: our project Densification or “location efficient” development around metro stations… - Identify specific real estate development opportunities - Quantify the travel behavior impacts of those developments - Estimate the net impacts on transportation greenhouse gas emissions of the prospective developments - Determine how to fit this within the CDM. - Supporting existent work looking at efficient dev’t (MINVU) or “neighborhood efficiency”

Baseline and Additionality:  Where would the developments have otherwise located?  What would have been the travel characteristics and subsequent emissions of those alternative locations?  Over what time period can the emissions reductions be realistically credited?  To what degree are the reductions “additional” to business- as-usual?  How can co-benefits (i.e., local air pollution reduction, other social benefits (costs)) be calculated and effectively incorporated into the methodology? Location Efficiency - ?’s

Monitoring and verification: How can the emissions reductions be adequately monitored and verified? Could surveys be incorporated into the real estate projects to determine trip-making behavior (including all non-motorized trips)? Could public transport ridership be monitored Track VKT or mode split? Surveys? Local traffic counts? Metro boardings? Is it appropriate to use modeling results for current or projected data?

Subsidies - Urban renovation, historic preservation, low income housing  CDM could bringing additional funds to support subsidies  How/if subsidies could be modified to fit as a CDM project? Mechanisms to promote transit-oriented development; transport-efficiency subsidies (or mortgages), a fund in which a CDM investor could invest, others  How to develop these?; Who would be the “players” (Metro, Ministry of Planning, Banks, Municipalities). Location Efficiency – ?s

Transport & Carbon Price At $5/tonne CO2… removing a car from the road would be worth about $15 to $20/year At $5/tonne CO2… removing a car from the road would be worth about $15 to $20/year not sufficient incentive on its own not sufficient incentive on its own added sweetener for otherwise locally beneficial projects added sweetener for otherwise locally beneficial projects

Discussion – key questions How to compensate for impacts on own baseline? i.e. disincentives? How to compensate for impacts on own baseline? i.e. disincentives? If transportation projects are not feasible under the current CDM guidelines, is there a need for revised guidelines? If so, what type? How could these be developed and introduced? If transportation projects are not feasible under the current CDM guidelines, is there a need for revised guidelines? If so, what type? How could these be developed and introduced?

Upcoming Events UNFCCC Side Event: Wed, 10 Dec 1:00 p.m.- 3:00 p.m. “Getting there: tackling transport emissions” Multi-stakeholder, high-level event on technical and lifestyle fixes as options for reversing the transport emissions trend. Moderated by Simon Upton. ****************************************************************************** “CDM and Transportation: Challenges and Opportunities” Santiago, Chile, Sept 2004 Int’l workshop on Transport & CDM issues & presentation of the conclusions of the IISD/CCAP/CC&D work

Thank you! FOR MORE INFORMATION... Jodi Browne Climate Change & Energy, IISD Tel: +1 (613) Steve Winkelman Manager of Transportation, CCAP Tel: +1 (202) Eduardo Sanhueza Director, CC&D Tel: +56 (2)