International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Session 4 The role of composite indicators in tracking the Business Cycle Geert Bruinooge.

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Presentation transcript:

International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Session 4 The role of composite indicators in tracking the Business Cycle Geert Bruinooge Statistics Netherlands

Discussion 1 Is there a need for two types of composite indicators (leading and coincidental)? Or can we use just one composite indicator ( a combination of leading, coincidental and lagging components)?

Discussion 2 Do we need a fixed set of criteria for the selection of components for all countries to enhance co-ordination and comparability?

Discussion 3 Is it possible to define a minimum set of components to be included in all Leading Indicators and Coincidental Indicators? Or are the economic situations so divers that no minimum set can be defined?

Discussion 4 Is an explicit statistical and econometric model not preferable above the use of individual models? Weighing: a model that takes into account the contributions of each component might be better.

Discussion 5 NSI’s should concentrate on monthly indicators which actually measure general economic activity instead of on CLI’s.

Discussion 6 How to improve the early detection of turning points? How to measure the robustness of growth? Dow we need to develop International Guidelines on Composite Indicators of the economic cycle?