{ Krogh Seminar – Research Presentation Zach Kay, Matthew Quallen

 Foreign aid as a retaliatory mechanism? Research Question

 Retaliation in the Literature (Davis, Bermeo) 15-20% of Cases  “Power Hypothesis” (Guzman, Simmons) Strong states muscle out weaker ones Background

 We hypothesize states will use aid to control WTO outcomes, filings Hypothesis

 Our Data – -dichotomous indicators -Vreeland et. Al  Independent variable Lagging and leading versions  Dependent variable Odadis_USA, Ln? Delta?  Controls Baseline from Vreeland et. al; Population? Ln? Methodology

Oadis_USA, to Ln or not to Ln? Raw Data Natural Log *What effect will this have on our results?

 The effects of methodological choices on out outcomes -Population, ln? -Odadis_USA, ln? -Odadis_USA, delta? -Leading and lagging effects? Results

POPPop_ln“.” Odadis_USA+, sig, sig-, sig, ~sig-, sig, N/A Δodadis_USA+-, insig, sig+, sig, insig+, sig, N/A Ln(odadis_USA)-, sig, sig+, insig, insig+, insig, N/A Ln(Δodadis_USA)+, insig, insig-, insig, insig-, insig, N/A Results Summary

 Methodology affects both significance and sign  Evaluating our hypothesis? Conclusions