Review of the strategic approach to the problem of poverty in Montenegro Uglješa Janković, Phd

POVERTY - DESINE Analytic review of approaches in reduction of the poverty in Montenegro. Presentation results of empirical research implemented in period 2000/2010. Statistic analyze of consequences for social situation in Montenegro. Presentation of users of social help in Montenegro. Data: MONTENEGRO – stats (MONSTAT) and SEEPS.

POVERTY The World Bank and the IMF, with the initiative of the G7 group, launched a program Poverty Reduction Strategy, a new program to support over-indebted and underdeveloped countries. As part of this program, Montenegro decided to define its strategy to decrease the poverty line. In a wide process actively participated all segments of society: Parliament, local community, social partners, International development partners, and representatives of marginalized social groups  (PRSP, 2003: 1-2)

POVERTY Period of implementation: 1. Empirical search of social polarization in Montenegro. 2. Stratedgy for reduction of the poverty in Montenegro (2003). 3. Stratedgy for reduction of the poverty and social exclusion in Montenegro (2007).

POVERTY Poverty in 2003th in Montenegrin population according Strategy, 2003. Poverty in food Absolute poverty economy troubles 4.0 9.4 36.4

Poverty In Montenegro, as a measure of absolute poverty line established by the state used consumer basket for a standard household (in 2003 amounted to 116.2euro per consumer unit), a line of economically vulnerable population is set at 50% above the poverty line, 174.3euro.

Poverty State GINNY 90/10 odnos Bosna i Hercegovina, 2001 0.26 3.3 Albanija, 2002 0.28 3.6 Mađarska, 1997 3.5 Srbija, 2002 6.7 Slovenija, 1997/98 3.7 Crna Gora, 2002 0.29 5.8 Bugarska, 2001 0.30 4.1 Hrvatska, 1998 3.9 Makedonija,2000 0.31 4.3 Estonija, 1998 0.38 5.4

Poverty Polarization Number in all population Domical people RAE people Izbjegla lica Raseljena lica Gini 0.29 0.28 0.38 0.31 0.27 Decile 7.00 6.5 15.4 7.8 5.7

Poverty Who are the poor in Montenegro? According to data from the final version of the "Strategy of development and poverty reduction" absolute poverty is especially present among the RAE population (52.2%), as well as refugees (38.8%) and internally displaced persons (38.6%), while among local population, the percentage was 12.2 (2003).

Poverty Absolute poverty in Montenegro affects a relatively small percentage of the population by 10.9%, while it ranges between 8.4 and 13.6%, where the poor are concentrated in the central and northern regions and rural areas (Strategy, 2007).  A large part of the population is vulnerable to poverty. Regardless of how many people are poor, many more are those who are subject to shocks that will make them poor (Strategy, 2007). It is clear that under the poverty line, according to the strategy, are the dominant members of the RAE population, refugees and displaced persons (Strategy, 2007). 

Poverty MONSTAT: Line of the poverty Year Frequency poverty   Year Frequency poverty Bias poverty Ginny 2006. 144,68 11,3 1,9 0,6 24,4 2007. 150,76 8,0 1,4 0,4 26,4 2008. 163,57 4,9 0,9 0,3 25,3 2009. 169,13 6,8 0,5 2010. 169,98 6,6 1,1 24,3

Dummy variable A) Dummy variable for the period 2003-07, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in the number of social assistance during the whole period from 2003 to 2007, which would could be attributed to the effectiveness of the first strategy?  (b) Dummy variable for the period 2007-11, with which we test whether there is significant changes in the number of social assistance during  the entire period since 2007 by 2011, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of other strategies?  (c) Trend variable for the period 2003-07, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in trend in the number of social aid during the period from 2003 to 2007, which could be attributed to the  effectiveness of the first strategy?  (d) Trend variable for the period 2007-11, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in trend in the number of social  assistance during the period from 2007 to 2011, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of other strategies?

Conclusion Year Users under the age of 18 Total Female Man 2000. 12.421 5.439 6.982 2001. 13.513 6.079 7.434 2002. 15.315 6.831 8.484 2003. 15.677 6.922 8.755 2004. 17.449 7.876 9.573 2005. 18.836 8.192 10.644 2006. 19.188 8.571 10.617 2007. 22.595 10.249 12.346 2008. 27.429 13.558 13.871 2009. 26.159 12.697 13462 2010. 25.213 12.400 12.813 2011. 23.639 11.466 12.173

Conclusion Year Users older than age of 18 Total Female Man 2000. 19.203 9.270 9.933 2001. 23.431 10.292 13.139 2002. 25.694 11.756 13.938 2003. 25.477 12.236 13.241 2004. 29.088 13..407 15.681 2005. 26.063 12.472 13.591 2006. 26.756 13.515 2007. 27.301 13..217 14.084 2008. 28.351 14.297 14.054 2009. 28.398 14.171 14.227 2010. 28.331 14.288 14.043 2011. 28.128 14.190