Panel on Technology and Economic Development European Foundation Centre 4 June 2002 ROBERT HORVITZ Manager for Central & Eastern Europe GLOBAL INTERNET POLICY INITIATIVE (GIPI)

What is the need for the development of ICT infrastructure in developing countries? What are the constraints to ICT development? How can foundations and other donor organisations overcome these constraints and provide effective assistance?

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SECTORAL OVERVIEW Telephony Internet Computing

THE GOOD NEWS (1) Telecom market liberalization is proliferating and it works. –rapid increase in teledensity, lower prices, and better service –important pressure for change from EU and mobile phone companies Incumbent telecom operators fully or partly privatized in 113 countries

Encouragingly, the fastest growing nations recently have been the least developed countries (LDCs). They surpassed the psychological threshold of one telephone user per 100 inhabitants during This is an unmistakable sign that the digital divide is being reduced, albeit at too slow a pace. ---World Telecommunication Development Report 2002: Reinventing Telecoms (ITU)

TOP 10 IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH, Cambodia = * Viet Nam = +4200% China = +2967% Philippines = +1240% Botswana = +1026% El Salvador = +908% Morocco = +831% Paraguay = +767% Jamaica = +758% Cape Verde = +717% * Cambodia had zero teledensity in 1991

BOTTOM 10 IN TELEDENSITY GROWTH, Liberia = -50% Iraq = - 25% Tajikistan = -20% Angola = -12% Armenia = -6% Uzbekistan = 0% Kyrgyzstan = +10% North Korea = +21% Comoros = +25% Turkmenistan = +40%

THE GOOD NEWS (2) Wireless mobile telephony may solve the problem of universal access –Penetration not initially dependent on GDP! In 22 of 49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) there are more mobile than fixed phone subscribers

PHONES: MOBILE NOW OVERTAKING FIXED-LINES Data: ITU (2001) Significant economic benefit: Mobile phones enable more efficient & productive use of time

COUNTRIES WITH MORE MOBILE THAN FIXED-LINE SUBSCRIBERS Map: ITU (2002)

THE GOOD NEWS (3) Internet gateways in 214 countries now –access monopoly in only 14 countries The proportion of Internet users in developing countries increased from 2% to 23% of the total user population during the past decade - even as the total user population grew 11,477%!!

COUNTRIES WITH INTERNET HOSTS Data: ITU, 2001

COUNTRIES WITH NO INTERNET HOSTS CAN STILL HAVE INTERNET USERS Djibouti (1,000) Equatorial Guinea (600) Haiti (6,000) Iraq (12,500) North Korea (?) Sudan (28,000) Syria (32,000) Zaire (?) … and 7 remote island nations: Maldives (6,000), Reunion (10,000), etc. Data: Internet Software Consortium, NUA

COUNTRIES WITH <0.1% INTERNET PENETRATION Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equitorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Papua- New Guinea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zaire Data: ITU (2001)

INTERNET USAGE MOST BELOW NORMAL FOR THEIR TELEDENSITY Luxembourg (!) St. Kitts & Nevis Martinique Guadeloupe Guam Barbados Virgin Islands Greece Cyprus Bahamas Ukraine Granada

INTER-REGIONAL INTERNET BACKBONE 357 Mb/s 19,716 Mb/s Asia- Pacific Latin America & Caribbean 2,638 Mb/s 127 Mb/s Arab States, Africa 468 Mb/s 171 Mb/s Europe USA & Canada 56,241 Mb/s Data: ITU (2001)

IN ICTs GENERALLY... The gap between Developed and Emerging countries is narrowing... But the gap between Emerging and Least Developed countries is widening… LDC progress is significant but spotty

THE BAD NEWS (1) 50-fold improvement in PC hardware produced only a modest lowering of the price of an entry-level machine. –Improvement mostly absorbed by operating system bloat Near-future Internet growth could be limited by PC penetration

WILL THE SLOWER GROWTH IN PC OWNERSHIP LIMIT INTERNET GROWTH?

THE GOOD NEWS (4)

WHAT TO SUPPORT? Academic networks and computers in schools PC networks for parliamentarians and their staff Training (especially for civil servants, teachers and judges)

WHAT TO SUPPORT? Creation and maintainance of locally relevant content Open-source software for public administration Program-related investment in international connectivity

WHAT TO SUPPORT? Trade associations for Internet cafes and ISPs Online freedom of expression and Internet users privacy rights Legal treatment of the Internet as speech, rather than as broadcasting

To build sustainable networks, you've got to have local hands cultivating local expertise. ---Steve Huter Network Startup Resource Center

ROBERT HORVITZ

Global Internet Policy Initiative (GIPI) Founded December 2000 –Partnership between Internews and the Center for Democracy and Technology Administrative Center in Paris, France Policy Center in Washington, DC

GIPI offices in: Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bulgaria Georgia India Indonesia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Nigeria Romania Russia Serbia Tajikistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

GIPI offices soon in: Bosnia-Herzegovina Vietnam anywhere else that the development of the Internet is hindered by public policies.

How GIPI works (1) Hire qualified local people - usually a lawyer, activist or ISP. Give them backup and support from Internet policy experts in other countries, plus access to shared resources within GIPI.

How GIPI Works (2) Identify the main local problems in Internet development, possible solutions and opportunities for reform. Join or create working groups with key stakeholders (businesses, service providers, government officials & NGOs) to develop consensus for policy changes.

ROBERT HORVITZ