In time of recession, can organic food be a reality for the majority? Susanne Padel Institute of Biological Environmental and Rural Sciences

Outline 10 year trends of the organic sector Who is the organic consumer? Some more recent trends of the organic market Can organic food be a relality?

Organic agricultural land by region (2007)

Global organic market % of consumer demand in North America (43%) and Europe (54%). Asia, Latin America and Australasia are important producers and exporters Supply problems for fruits, vegetables, beverages, cereals, grains, seeds herbs and spices Growth at lower rate is expected to continue

UK organic certified land area since 1997

UK Organic sector development since 1997

Organic market and sales channels Source: KeyNote (2008)

Who are the organic consumers? We used to think Higher social class and education 2/3 are A,B,C1 (compared with 1/2 in population) Fewer children and older Mainly living in London, South East, South West and Wales But appeal has widened Manual and casual workers, students and pensioners now account for 50% of consumers

Why people buy organic? (% consider very important) Quality and taste (31) No GM ingredients(26) High animal welfare standards (25) Avoiding food with pesticides (25) Avoiding artificial colours & additives (23) Wanting to know where food come from (22) Fair prices and wages for farmers &workers (20) Farming methods encouraging wildlife (20) Impact of production and transport on greenhouse gases and climate change (14) (Source: Market Tools/ZOmnibus for Soil Association, January 2009)

Two broad segments of consumers Regular/committed (15%) Claim to buy more then 40% of food as organic Well educated; health aware Range of income levels Believe in organic product quality Seek other attributes Environment Animal welfare Fair trade and local Account for > 80% of spend Occasional (30%) and rarely (48%) Claim to buy between 35% and 10% as organic More price & convenience sensitive More sceptical about some claims Less knowledge Account for < 20% of spend

Knowledge and availability remains a problem ¼ of those that don’t buy regularly would like to know more. Organic products are bought unknowingly People believe to buy organic if in fact they are not (e.g. on farmers markets, natural) Limited knowledge legal status of ‘organic’ and annual inspection/certification requirements

More recent trends Market has grown by 1.7% between 2007 and 2008 (£2.1 billion) Nine out 10 households buy organic food increases in the last 5 years Broader appeal Average spending has fallen from £51.30 to £50.55

Dairy products (29.5% of sales) Above average growth (07-08) +10% milk cheese +1.5 yoghurts Now the largest sector Commitment from key players to communication campaign Comparatively low premiums

Fruit & veg(26.2 % of sales) Available in supermarkets but also box schemes, local shops, farmers markets Reductions in consumer spend during 2008 Heavy reliance on imports Despite steady increase in horticultural land area in the UK

Meat (<10%) Above average growth rates +13% for red meat and +17% for poultry Downturn in supermarket sales in late 2008 Lower value cuts and products (beef burgers) Cheaper outlets Affected by grain price increases Animal welfare important ‘Chicken out’ campaign

Difficulties balancing Quality Health Taste Animal welfare Local food Fair price Wildlife Climate change

Labelling jungle?

Expected responses to the recession... Different types of shopping Fun Source :Bord Bia Research – Feeling the Pinch

Shopping Habits will Change… Fun Source :Bord Bia Research – Feeling the Pinch Shoppers will first try to reduce cost of Vital essentials – Promotions, Own brand, Discounters And will then cut out Fun expenditure Reluctant to cut back on Lifestyle or Sanity purchases – Some affordable luxuries may actually increase!

© © MyReports Specific food purchases –environmental and ethical I have specifically bought… Source: IGD Consumer Unit, 2009

Summary and conclusions Consumers have reviewed spending on premium organic foods People continue to seek ways to make a difference Organic market largely driven by committed regulars

Can organic food be a reality for the majority? Availability remains a problem Expensive image, not always reality Checking prices Premiums vary between outlets More home cooking and less convenience food and changes in diet We need clear messages about the wider benefits of organic food

The World of Organic Agriculture th edition published by IFOAM and FiBL, in conjunction with ITC. Contributions from more than 40 authors Contents: Results of the global organic survey Special focus on Latin America Global market, standards and legislation, crops, food security, other issues

UK market by product categories in 2009

Land use in organic agriculture world- wide