Ionosphere Precursors to the Dec 30, 2010 Mexicali Earthquake Rachel Thessin, CSI 763, May 11, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Ionosphere Precursors to the Dec 30, 2010 Mexicali Earthquake Rachel Thessin, CSI 763, May 11, 2010

Question  Can ionosphere precursors to the Mexicali Earthquake can be detected in TEC data?  Test 1: Does the periodogram taken over 1 day of data (at the earthquake location) vary significantly from normal in the days preceding the earthquake?  Test 2: Does the correlation between the earthquake grid cell and grid cells near and far to the earthquake vary significantly from normal in the days preceding the earthquake?

Data Overview  Earthquake:  December 30, 2009 (1848 UT), magnitude 5.8  N W  Ionosphere Data  US TEC data from the National Geophysical Data Center  Aggregated in time and space from GPS ground data  1 deg x 1 deg  15 min resolution  March 2006 – December  TEC: total electron content (integral of electron density)

Test 1, 1 of 3  Does the periodogram taken over 1 day of data (at the earthquake location) vary significantly from normal in the days preceding the earthquake?  Look for excursions outside 95% bounds

Test 1, 2 of 3  Near-field defined as <311 km due to earthquake influence

Test 1, 3 of 3  At earthquake site  Number of excursions per day is ~normal  Fewer number of excursions than typical  All excursions are in lower 2.5% tail of distribution  P(4 lower excursions in 1 day) = 3% (3 days before EQ)  P(no upper tail excursions over 10 days) = %  At other sites  Also had mostly lower excursions  Most upward: 6  1.6% chance of six or fewer upward excursions in the ten days  Conclusion: “Signal” is indicating extremely low solar activity during earthquake period, not the earthquake

Test 2, 1 of 2  Does the correlation between the earthquake grid cell and grid cells near and far to the earthquake vary significantly from normal in the days preceding the earthquake?  Nearby locations should normally be correlated, and lose correlation before the earthquake  Far locations should be less correlated, and thus less affected by any precursor signal

Test 2, 2 of 2  Low correlation values (statistically speaking) at all locations except Flagstaff  Confirmed with Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test: the data are not consistent with being drawn from the same continuous distribution as a uniformly distributed data set  Conclusion: Because far-field results and near-field results are both anomalous, we are unable to conclusively link the change in correlation to the earthquake.

Conclusion  Precursor signals cannot be conclusively found in this data set  Future tests:  Higher solar activity  One GPS station per test location  Avoid problems with aggregate data  Better spatial and temporal resolution  More test locations further from earthquake but in same time zone

Back-up: K-S Test