Part III Course materials Teaching Modules 7 & 8

Statistical Inference 2

Module 7-10 Overview 3

7.1 Distribution of Sample Proportions 4 Activity – create a sampling distribution Simulation – examine effect of sample size

7.1 Distribution of Sample Proportions 5 Activity – create a sampling distribution Simulation – examine effect of sample size

7.1 Distribution of Sample Proportions Central Limit Theorem – Explore through simulation – Calculate probability of occurrence of certain sample statistics – Foreshadowing inference 6

7.1 Distribution of Sample Proportions Central Limit Theorem – Explore through simulation – Calculate probability of occurrence of certain sample statistics – Foreshadowing inference 7

7.2 Introduction to Statistical Inference 8 Present point estimates, interval estimates, and margin of error from polls Confidence Intervals – concept based on variability of sample statistics – based on Empirical Rule Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

7.2 Introduction to Statistical Inference Activity – foreshadow logic of p- value Use sampling distributions to reason about claims on a population proportion 9

8.1 Confidence Intervals for Proportions Logical development Calculation: – Normality assumption – Finding critical values Interpretation Impact of sample size and confidence level on margin of error Contexts: college student characteristics – UFOs, coffee drinking habits, etc. 10

8.2 Hypothesis Testing - conceptual understanding Introduction to idea of testing claims about parameters based on statistics – Mean – Proportion – Two proportions – Two means MyStatway: revisit research hypotheses from Mod 1 Explore steps in process 11 Examine logic of Process – Interpret p-values – Draw conclusions Define, interpret – Significance level – Type I and Type II Errors Contexts: – Obama support, cell phones and brain cancer, college GPA, voting among college students, ESP

8.3 Hypothesis Testing - Calculations Calculate using table or technology – technology instructions in MyStatway – Testing conditions – one-sided, two-sided Contexts: – college students voting for Obama, 2008 and now – Bullying in schools – Youth asthma rates – Global warming – Health insurance coverage – Internet access – Financial aid – Drinking among college students 12 Emphasis – Writing conclusions in context Interpreting errors Understanding importance of random, representative samples

Wrap-Up, Checkpoints, Reflections 13

Professional Development This presentation was for teachers preparing to teach the second semester. After the presentation, the teams from each school worked together on the following tasks …. 14

Next Steps… Mapping of MyStatway and Lessons – What would this look like? Create a template or sample. Additional Practice Problems – How many? What types? Solutions? Create or outline a set. Cultivating Productive Struggle – Practice implementing, Discuss strategies for use Practice Using Simulations – Review existing simulations and practice using in class Plan Lessons with Your Team 15

Record & Report Out Capturing your work is vital, so that we can Learn from each other and build upon each others work Establish a network-wide design and implementation strategy Send notes to Karon We’ll also want to report out here from our tables. Tell us: A key insight in your work What you’ve accomplished Next steps 16