The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Perspective in the ESCWA Region The GA Second Committee New York- 27 October, 2009 The Economic Impacts of Climate Change Perspective in the ESCWA Region By Anhar Hegazi Director Sustainable Development and Productivity Division UN-ESCWA Tel: 961-978502, Fax: 961-1-981510 E-mail: hegazi@un.org

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region Content The Climate Change “CC” and sustainable development challenges. The Socio-Economic Impacts of CC. Regional Initiatives to Address CC Impacts The ESCWA Role and Initiative on CC Issues.

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region I. The Climate Change and SD Challenges Responding to CC should be addressed within the context of sustainable development “SD”. A. SD Challenges Rapid population growth (2.32% compared to 1.19% world average); Political instability in the region that can be enhanced by CC Impacts; Acute water scarcity, deterioration of quality, and 80% shared water resources; Unsustainable production and consumption patterns, especially for water, energy, and land resources associated with environmental impacts.

I. SD Challenges (Contd.) The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region I. SD Challenges (Contd.) Inappropriate Institutional, and Legislative Capacity to address CC adaptation and mitigation issues; Low Competitiveness of production sectors, especially regarding Small and Medium Enterprises “SMEs”; Fragmented Social Policies, and the subsequent repercussions on poor and marginalized groups; Inadequate Financial Resources to cope with the disruption in climate.

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources Despite its low contribution to GHG’s emissions, the region will highly suffer from climate change repercussions which might undermine national and regional development plans including: Temperature increase: An increase in drought spurs thus affecting groundwater quantity and quality (e.g. estimated 50% and 15% reduction in freshwater in Syria and Lebanon); A decreased agricultural productivity and an increase in the area of semi-arid lands;

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources Contd. An increase in desertification and land degradation, and the associated effects on biodiversity; 30-50% expected reduction in run off of the Euphrates and Tigris and fluctuation in the Nile of +30 to -70%; CC might affect production capacity of desalination plants. Depreciation changes over Africa from the MMD-A1B simulations. Annual mean fractional change in precipitation between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models.

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources Contd. Sea level rise: Leading to drowning of coastal areas and: Loss of agricultural lands: Qatar, Egypt, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq are estimated to lose 12-15% of their fertile Delta lands; Potential increase in the occurrence of natural disasters, “floods and hurricanes” (Hugo Hurricane in Oman); Seawater intrusion to coastal groundwater resources might pose a threat to Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Gulf States. > 1,000,000 migrant > 500,000 migrant 5,000-50,000 migrant

A. Potential Social Impacts The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region II. The Socio Economic Impacts of Climate Change A. Potential Social Impacts Increased political conflicts due to competition over varying and declining natural resources degradation, mainly water and land; Population displacement and mass immigration from flooded or drought affected regions in Egypt, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq; Increase in unemployment and decrease in wages due to agricultural lands loss, and to halting of tourism and fishing activities…etc; Effect on human security and livelihoods; Increase in poverty and health problem levels among potential natural disaster victims and poor marginalized groups. Spread of health problems

B. Potential Economic Impacts The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region B. Potential Economic Impacts Negative inputs on the major economic sectors, especially: Tourism facilities in coastal areas; Agricultural productivity and food costs; Industry and power systems; Repercussions on the Nile Delta, Shatt El Arab and the Gulf could lead to huge economic losses in: The infrastructure (roads, bridges, power and telecommunication systems); Housing and building sectors.

B. Potential Economic Impacts (cont’d) The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region B. Potential Economic Impacts (cont’d) Limitation of urban development in drought prone regions due to mass movements and reduced productivity; Increased costs associated with actions required for addressing water scarcity and quality deterioration; Difficulty in providing food and increase in food prices due to aggravated desertification and land degradation; Heavy financial losses resulting from potential disasters, floods and hurricanes.

III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region III. Regional Initiatives to address CC A- Political Will and Commitments ESCWA Member countries have expressed their political will and commitment to achieve SD and address CC through: The Arab initiative on SD (AISD), 2002; The Abu Dhabi declaration on environment and energy, (ADDEE) 2003; The Arab Declaration on CC (ADCC), 2007; The draft Arab Framework Action Plan on CC (AFAPPC).

III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The ADDEE 2003, expressed the Arab political will and commitment for: Developing national strategies to strengthen the energy sector sustainability and reduce its GHG’s emissions; Enhancing access to reliable and affordable energy services, using a mix of traditional and renewable energy resources; Promoting regional integration through electric grid interconnections and gas pipeline.

III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The Arab Declaration on CC (2007) expressed Arab commitment to join the international community in its move towards adaptation to and mitigation of CC in a way that: is equitable and consistent with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities; will not commit developing countries to specific figures for reducing emissions within a specific timeframe; ADCC also expressed Arab commitment to develop policies for: Integrating CC into national/regional SD strategies; Adopting national/regional action plans to assess the potential impact of CC; Developing programs for adaptation and mitigation of CC.

The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region III. Regional Initiatives to address CC The ADCC also called on the international community and developed countries to provide the necessary support to the developing countries, including the Arab States, in: Assessing the potential climate change impacts; Promoting and acquiring clean technology transfer to developing countries; Financing CC relevant projects especially CDM. The draft AFAPCC contains a series of programs on CC adaptation and mitigation covering the sectors of water, land, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, industry, energy, transport, and building and construction.

1- Policies and Programmes III. Regional Initiatives to Address CC 1- Policies and Programmes Arab countries have adopted and implemented to a varying degree, policies and programmes which are linked to CC adaptation and mitigation: CNG Dispenser. On energy: Improving energy efficiency; Promoting renewable energy use; Reducing GHG emissions from transport; On water: Promoting IWRM; Preserving water quality; Building capacity on shared water resources; On land: Fighting desertification and land degradation. However, the achieved results are not sufficient and further efforts are needed.

IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC The Mandate The ESCWA 25th Ministerial Session (May 2008) has issued the resolution number 281 (XXV), requesting the Secretariat to cooperate with the LAS and UN organizations active in the region to: Prepare an assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of economic and social development in the region; and Increase awareness and promote policy dialogue on climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. Within the framework of the UN-LAS coordination, ESCWA has effectively contributed to the formulation of the ADCC and the AFAPCC.

IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC 2009 Activities ESCWA activities implemented in 2009 on CC include: On renewable energy (RE): Report on Promoting Large Scale RE Applications in the Arab Region, an Approach for CC Mitigation (2009); Field project on “Capacity building on RE technology applications for poverty alleviation in rural areas in the ESCWA region” (2009).

IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC B. 2009 Activities (Contd.) On sustainable transport: Report on Transport for Sustainable Development in the Arab Region (September 2009); EGM on progress achieved and policy measures on Transport for Sustainable Development in the Arab Region and related CC issues (29 September-1 October 2009). On SCP: The 2nd roundtable on the ten-year framework on sustainable production and consumption (27-29 September 2009).

Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources 2009 Activities (cont’d) In support of the ESCWA resolution 281 (XXV) regional coordination was formalized through the RCM’s, Thematic Working Group on CC (November 2008). It was agreed that ESCWA, UNEP/ ROWA, UNESCO and UNDP would collaborate on a "Vulnerability Assessment on Water Resources of the Region". Regional collaboration was further reinforced at the “UN-LAS” Ninth Sectoral Meeting (June 2009), which focused on CC and was chaired by ESCWA on behalf of the SG. The meeting concluded with agreement that UN and LAS specialized organizations would collaborate on the preparation of a vulnerability assessment on the impact of climate change on water and land resources.

Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Preparatory Process: ESCWA is organizing and hosting the launching of this collaborative work at an EGM Towards Assessing the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change in the Arab Region (Beirut, 26-28 October 2009); The EGM will involve government delegates as well as representatives from the LAS, WMO, World Bank, UNEP/ROWA, FAO, UNDP, ACSAD, ISESCO among other regional organizations. The meeting will discuss models, methodologies, parameters and priorities so as to define the scope and inform the process of formulating a joint work plan.

IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC C. Planned 2010-2011 Activities Report on “Energy policies and measures for promoting climate change mitigation in ESCWA countries” (2010) EGM on “Approaches for Promoting Emission Reductions from the Transport Sector in the ESCWA Region” (2011) In addition since 2002 ESCWA has initiated a regional mechanism on “Energy for sustainable development” to promote intra-regional cooperation among its MC’s in the field.

C. Planned 2010-2011 Activities (cont’d) IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC C. Planned 2010-2011 Activities (cont’d) Study on “Policies and Measures Promoting Sustainable Energy Use in the Transport Sector in the ESCWA Region” (2011) Report on the vulnerability of water sector to climate change and adaptation measures to increase resilience of ESCWA Countries EGM on Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation Measures in the ESCWA Region EGM on Promoting SMEs participation in providing services for energy efficiency/renewable energy projects Non-recurrent publication on “Adaptation Measures for Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the ESCWA Region” 22

The Message Despite its low contribution to GHG’s emissions, the region will highly suffer climate change repercussions which might undermine national and regional development plans and increases challenges through: affecting natural resources particularly water and land resources; Adding severe socio economic impacts on the region; Arab countries including ESCWA members have collectively: galvanized their political will and commitment to achieve SD and address CC; formulated action plans to address CC adaptation and mitigation supported by ESCWA, UNEP/ROWA and other UN regional agencies; ESCWA has already implemented several activities on climate change in 2009, and included climate change issues in its 2010-2011 work programme through close coordination with LAS and UN agencies in the region; Exchange of experiences among regional commissions on climate change issues is essential to enhance its capacity in serving member countries.