 MIMESIS Multi Infrastructures Map for the Evaluation of the Impact of Crisis Scenarios Vittorio Rosato Ph.D. ENEA Computing and Modeling Unit Ylichron Srl ENEA-University of British Columbia Meeting, Rome May 8°, 2009

Summary  Context  Goals  Features  Examples  Future developments

Context  Need of integrated, multi-infrastructure databases  Need of integrating real-time data from the field (network’s of intelligent sensors)  Need of a specific (possibly unsupervised) tools for the real-time risk analysis  Need of decision support systems to help managers for supporting fast mitigation of crisis effects.

Goals  Create an integrated repository of GIS data on critical infrastructures  Create a comprehensive repository of land data (both “physiological” and “pathological” data)  Integrate data with field sensor networks (geo- meteo-seismic)  Built-up a real-time risk evaluator of CI’s for land- based events (with effect’s prediction)

Workflow and extended-MIMESIS concepts Current MIMESIS

Features (Regione Lazio case study)  GIS database of Regione Lazio CIs:  Roads and motorways  Railways  Electrical transmission lines (380 kV to 120 kV)  Telco networks  Water pipelines  Oil & gas pipelines  Relevant industrial areas

Features (Regione Lazio case study)  GIS database of Regione Lazio land properties:  DEM  Waterways and water bacins  Population density  Seismic danger (max surfacial acceleration)  Landslide danger (frequency and type of events)

Features (Regione Lazio case study)  Data treated by using a commercial GIS-tools (GeoMedia by Intergraph)  Custom software for network’s analysis and risks evaluations

Features (Regione Lazio case study) GIS map of electrical and telco networks

Features (Regione Lazio case study) Regione Lazio population density

Features (Regione Lazio case study) Land exposition evaluated as a combination of seismic and landslide data.

Methods (Regione Lazio case study)  Evaluation of land exposition to  Geophysical risks (flood, seismic, landslide etc.)  Technological risks (unavailability of one or more CIs)  Evaluation of CI exposition to “land crises”  Evaluating the impact that a land crisis scenario might have on the operability of the different CIs contained in that area and the repercussions that this event might have on other CIs (also in other areas- long range perturbations)  Evaluation of crises impact

Example1 (Regione Lazio case study) Probability that a telco ending-point contained in the electrical nodes cannot be reached by a tele-control message coming from the TERNA operational centre (black circle), upon removal of all couples of telco nodes in the network. Sensitivity of electrical tele-control network to faults on telco network

Example2 (Regione Lazio case study) Probability that a telco equipment results in a fault (unsupplied) condition due to the fault of a proximal electrical node. Faults, in turn, result from the disconnection of pairs of electrical lines. Points of injection of power (from power plants) into the transmission electrical network are highlighted in cyan. Sensitivity of telco network to faults on HV electrical network

Example3 (Regione Lazio case study) Exposition parameter of the different areas of the Region as a function of their “content” and “distance” from waterways and bacins. The exposition parameter (here a linear function of content and distance from water bacins) can be further enriched with other correlation with seismic, landslide and other types of land indices. Risk exposition of CIs can be estimated as a function of the exposition parameter of the area in which they are located

Future developments ( ) Current MIMESIS D2 demonstrator ENEA expertises INGV sensor’s network Contacts with FLIWAS ENEA programs