AN INTEGRATED ASSESSENT OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREAS AND COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Juan M. Pulhin Ekawati S. Wahyuni

Objectives of the Presentation To briefly discuss:  Overview of the research project  Analytical and methodological gaps before the workshop  Proposed analytical and methodological tools to address gaps and influence decision makers being targeted by the project

Overview Watersheds and their importance in the Philippines  critical to economic development and environmental protection  More than 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds  421 principal river basins, 18 of which are major basins with drainage areas of more than 140,000 ha

 > 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands derive irrigation water from watersheds  Hydropower major energy source  18-20M people living in uplands

Project objectives  Assess the impacts of climate change to water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems of the watersheds;  Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems in the watershed areas;  Develop adaptation strategies for natural water resources, forests ecosystems and social systems;  Promote stakeholder participation in the research process;  Contribute to peer reviewed literature; and  Help build capacity of local scientists to conduct integrated assessment studies.

Research Methods  Study will focus on a watershed each in the Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang Bawang Watershed).  Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of the research process  Local communities will also be able to participate in impact assessment and adaptation planning

GMC Climate Scenario National Climate Scenario Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water, forests and communities Adaptation Assessment Vulnerability Assessment General Conceptual framework of the study (Original)

Research Framework at the Watershed Level Climate change scenario Biophysical factors THE WATERSHED SYSTEM Forest/carbon budget Water Budget Land use and land cover change Socio-economic political factors Local communities

Expected Outcomes  results will be useful to national policy makers as well as watershed planners in SE Asian countries  enable local communities in watershed areas to adapt to climate change

ANALYTICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL GAPS BEFORE THE WORKSHOP  Balancing “top-down” with “bottom-up” analysis to make assessment more robust  Engaging the stakeholders’ participation in the research process  Promoting the use of the research outputs by decision makers

ADDRESSING ANALYTICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL GAPS Balancing top-down with bottom-up approach  Revised research framework to incorporate current coping strategies and vulnerability assessment  Methods: Assessment of current vulnerability and adaptation strategies of relevant stakeholders  Tools: Stakeholder/Institutional Analysis, PRA techniques (time lines, focus group discussions, seasonal calendar, wealth ranking, in-depth interviews)

GMC Climate Scenario National Climate Scenario Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water, forests and communities Future Vulnerability Assessment Future Adaptation Assessment Climate Variability/ Extremes and Current Coping Mechanisms Current Vulnerability Assessment General Conceptual framework of the study (Revised)

ADDRESSING ANALYTICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL GAPS Engaging the stakeholders’ participation in the research process  Method: Multi-spatial, Multi-level Stakeholder Analysis/Involvement from on-site and downstream communities and institutions to the regional and national agencies/groups, to the policy makers at the various stages of the research process (Scenario building, present and future vulnerability and adaptation assessment/planning)  Tools: Various tools on SA and Participation, Multisectoral consultation, Facilitation Methods

ADDRESSING ANALYTICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL GAPS Promoting the use of research outputs by decision makers  Wide range of decision makers involved in the project: from the de facto resource users to the policy makers  Challenge: build awareness and interest on climate change in different sectors in the process of conducting the research  Approach: Move from a “laboratory-oriented” to a more stakeholder-oriented”, advocacy type of research

ADDRESSING ANALYTICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL GAPS Promoting the use of research outputs by decision makers  Tools: Various tools on SA and Participation, Multi-sectoral consultation, IEC tools  Specifics (other than those mentioned already): Development of IEC materials such as posters, website, etc. Presentation of project concepts/outputs in local and national seminars/for a/symposia, etc. Incorporation of climate change topics in existing university courses or development of new courses and student researches Use of spatial analysis (GIS) to better communicate research results Bringing research results in the halls of the Congress.

CONCLUSION  Both the research process and outputs are important to influence decision makers  If stakeholders are aware and involved, the likelihood that they will use the research outputs/results increases  In climate change assessment, the challenge is to put more human dimension and local perspectives into the modeler’s equation

Thank you!