CLIMATE CHANGE IS DUE TO OCEAN VARIATIONS – NOT CO 2 William M. Gray Department of Atmospheric Science July 2014

There is no scientific justification for the CO 2 global warming hypothesis.

FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE STUDY (1979) (The Charney Report) Doubling CO 2 will lead to global ∆T of ° C (~3 ° C) Due to positive water-vapor feedback ∆T ∆ moisture reduced global OLR (IR) ∆CO 2 RH const. 1°C 2°C = 3°C WARMING - grossly unrealistic

REALITY GCMs IR 0 0 AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP CONVECTION INCREASE ENHANCED SUPPRESSED

PRESSURE (mb) q s 10 2 q s 10 5 q s 10x x x x 8 Rain 165 Cb RH = 75/240 = 31% Rain Eff. = 165/240 = 69% 75 vapor subsidence 8 q s Net 240 Condensation More IR ALTITUDE (km) 1/4 1/16 10 km UPPER TROPOSPHERE

Lapse-Rate Wm -2 water- vapor T = 243 o K T = 241 o K ht 241 o 243 o 24 IR 0.2 g/cm Wm g/cm 2 IR DRY WET COLDWARM Wm -2 Temp. HOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE CONTROLS UPPER MOISTURE CONTROLS THE EMISSION LEVEL AND IR FLUX TO SPACE Moist Dry MORE LESS

0 Vertical Motion (ω) GRID SPACE – ω– ω – ωωdωd – ω u IR = 2 RH = High IR = 4 RH = 60% RH = 100% GCM grid ω Sub-grid up & down motion concentration MOIST DRYER

ΔqΔqΔRH Change in specific humidity (%)Change in relative humidity (%) Pressure (hPa) HANSEN – early model + 6%+ 50% Changes for a doubling of CO 2 WAY TOO MUCH VAPOR

Top of Atmos. Sfc. 2 X CO 2 Restriction Sen. Heat 0.5 Evap. 2.5 IR Equilibrium Response 3.7 Double CO 2 = IR 3.7 ΔT = °C3% ↑ 342 Solar 342 IR + Albedo

GCMs Projected Reality Net Global Warming Direct CO 2 Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback Warming Net Global Warming Direct CO 2 Warming w/Rainfall ∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative Feedback 1oC1oC 2oC2oC 3oC3oC 0.5 o C -0.2 o C 0.3 o C DOUBLING CO 2 SURFACE VALUES

DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES FROM SALINITY VARIATIONS

S. PoleN. Pole Ocean Mean +3 o C CURRENT Poles and Ocean Cold mixing S. PoleN. Pole CRETACEOUS PERIOD Poles and Ocean Warm mixing Ocean Mean +17 o C

THC (or AMO) STRONG THC (or AMO) WEAK

12 3 H H Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

SAS THC

~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = -25 ~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = -35 ~~~~~~~~~~ Solar +25 MOC = Mixed Layer Thermocline Mixed Layer SPNP SPNP SPNP MEAN ∆E = 0 ∆E = - 10 ∆E = + 10 THC STRONG THC WEAK COOLING + More Rain more upwelling WARMING - Less Rain less upwelling Steady State

MORE UPWELLING COOLING LESS UPWELLING COOLING More Rain Less Rain GLOBAL COOLING GLOBAL WARMING

extrapolated

Multi-Century Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century Multi-Century TEMP 0 THC ? mean neg. ? Multi-century + decadal THC+ THC-

19 TH Century20 TH Century Globe CoolerGlobe Warmer

21st NOAA Climate Workshop, Huntsville, AL (1996) FORECAST OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT YEARS William M. Gray (written in 1996) We expect that these changing Ocean (or MOC) patterns will lead to a small global surface temperature cooling. The mean global surface temperature change in the next years will be more driven by nature than by anthropogenic influences and be one of weak cooling, not warming.

The Ocean, not CO 2 increase is the primary driver for climate change. CO 2 increases are beneficial. Climate research must become free of political domination.

Wm. M. Gray climate change papers for Heartland Conferences: ICCC3 – 2009 (NY) ICCC4 – 2010 (NY) ICCC7 – 2012 (Chicago) ICCC (Las Vegas)