Past and future impacts on the landscape and drainage of the Yorkshire Dales (Part 3) Dr Aidan Foley CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change ~ 10,000 years (Holocene)

Radiative forcings

Climate Change ~ 2000 years

Climate Change ~ 1000 years with forcings Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change, Chapter 6, Palaeoclimate, Figure 6.14.

Instrumental temperature record IPCC, 2007

25 year temperature record

Global temperature trends

Global & continental temperature change

Other issues: River water temperature Gosling, R (2011) The impact of climate change on water temperature and ecological health in Scottish rivers. Scottish Environment Protection Agency

Climate change in Europe “Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean.” “Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe.” “Extremes of daily precipitation are very likely to increase in northern Europe.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4 th Assessment Report (2007). pg. 872

Projected warming

Precipitation trends

Modelled estimates of UK monthly precipitation changes Maps of central estimates of monthly precipitation changes (in percent) derived from the sampled UKCP09 probabilistic changes over river-basin regions Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424– 425 (2012) 48–67

Modelled estimates of UK monthly potential evapotranspiration changes Maps of central estimates of monthly potential evapotranspiration changes (in percent) derived from the sampled UKCP09 probabilistic changes over river-basin regions Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424– 425 (2012) 48–67

Predicted changes in PPT & PET for the River Ribble at Arnford Annual cycle of changes in precipitation (top row) and PET (bottom row) for the Left: 20-member sampled subset of UKCP09 changes; middle:changes from the six individual UKWIR06 projections; right: changes from the 11-member ensemble of bias-corrected regional projections. Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67

Forecast changes in flow of the River Ribble at Arnford on the basis of three UK climate scenarios Climate & River Flows B.v. Christierson et al. / Journal of Hydrology 424–425 (2012) 48–67

Factors influencing river temperature

Riparian shading

Fish live in trees! - Trees and large woody debris – Shelter from high velocity flows – Feeding sites (provision of habitat for lower organisms) – Spawning sites (up to 50% of all sites) – Nursery sites – Territorial markers – Refuge from predators – Reduction in sediment inputs from overland flow – Increase bank stability – Reduce eutrophication (cut out sunlight)

Habitat Types, Cam Beck. Unit Length Average Wet width Average Active Channel Width Average Depth Maximum/Mean Depth Percentage Riparian Shade on Left and Right Bank individually Percentage of wetted area with ‘cover’ for juvenile fish Percentage composition of substrate

Extremely Simple Management Solutions #1 TREES!

The role of groundwater

Baseflow

Role of groundwater in mitigating climate change More variable river discharge and soil moisture The former exacerbates intra-annual freshwater shortages and the risk of flooding whereas the latter threatens food security through reduced crop yields Projected changes in the spatial distribution of mean rainfall are substantial but remain highly uncertain for most of the world Strategies to adapt to more variable freshwater resources will, in many environments, increase dependence upon groundwater Few climate impact models explicitly consider, however, how climate variability and change affect groundwater recharge and the sustainable development of groundwater despite its central role in enabling adaptation in domestic and agricultural water sectors International Association of Hydrogeologists

Acknowledgements & References Caves & Karst of the Yorkshire Dales (Tony Waltham & David Lowe) Climate History and the Modern World (H.H. Lamb) The Geomorphology of the British Isles – Northern England (Cuchlaine M. King) Glacial & Periglacial Geomorphology (Clifford Embleton & Cuchlaine M. King) North West Geodiversity Partnership Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change