Ph. D. Completion and Attrition: Baseline Program Data Robert Sowell CGS Annual Meeting December 7, 2007

Ph.D. Completion Project Goals: To study doctoral student completion and attrition patterns at a specifically selected set of Research and Project Partners institutions. To give deans context to lead conversations about what attrition and completion patterns actually are at their universities, and what practices could be implemented to improve these patterns. To empower graduate deans to develop interventions that are tailored to disciplines, departments, and programs at their universities. Come on heels of decade of reform Many efforts and studies – no anchor

Ph.D. Completion Project Funding provided by Pfizer Inc and the Ford Foundation 29 Research Partner institutions received grants 25 Project Partner institutions are currently participating in various project aspects (unfunded) Institutions participate in one or both project phases: Phase I (2004-2007) Phase II (2007-2010)

Data Requirements Completion and attrition data by program Aggregate demographic completion data by broad field Factor assessments for each institution and program Student Exit Surveys

Categories of Potential Interventions Selection/Matching Mentoring and Advising Financial Support and Structure Program Environments Research Experiences Curricular and Administrative Processes and Procedures Selection – Several SROP using “lab rotation” model to intro to fields and mentors Mentoring - UNC Chapel Hill adopted an orchestrated system of awards and recognitions Financial Support – UC San Diego: connecting block funding to completion and attrition goals Program Environment – Cornell developed family leave policy for grad students Research – Brown: fostering culture of competing for external grants—direct assistance centrally for funding and writing grants in STEM Administrative Processes –U Michigan “Grad Tools” allows students to share data sets and communicate with advisors. Yale initiative substantive & specific curricular modifications to 9 programs in the 2-4 Project focused on years between course completion and early dissertation work

New CGS Publication “Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D. Completion Project”

Number of Programs and Entering Students in Baseline Data # of Entering Students Engineering 54 9,496 Life Sciences 66 6,925 Math & Physical Sciences 78 15,262 Social Sciences 65 9,671 Humanities 67 7,759 All Fields Total 330 49,113

Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis A-Cohorts (10-year cohorts) Students enrolling in 1992-93; 1993-94; 1994-95 12,135 students (313 programs) B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts) Students enrolling in 1995-96; 1996-97; 1997-98 11,697 students (320 programs) C-Cohorts (4-year cohorts) Students enrolling in 1998-99; 1999-2000; 2000-01 12,125 students (323 programs) The majority of the baseline data analysis focuses on the A-Cohorts.

Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates 4.5 10.5 22.5 36.1 45.5 50.9 54.6 56.6 20 40 60 Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

Overall Ten-Year Attrition Rates 6.6 13.8 19.9 23.6 25.4 27 28.4 29.5 30.2 30.6 10 20 30 Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Broad Field 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences Humanities Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data 63.6 56.8 62.9 55.9 53.7 54.7 48.2 49.3 40.9 29.3

Ten-year Attrition Rates by Broad Field 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 Year Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences Humanities NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

By Year 10, Percentage of Continuing Students Plateaus in SEM, but Not SSH Fields 20 40 60 80 100 Cumulative Rates % STEM Fields Social Sciences & Humanities 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Note: 10-Year Cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Continuing Completion Attrition

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Mathematics & Physical Science Disciplines 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 year Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences Mathematics Physics and Astronomy Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Mathematics & Physical Science Disciplines 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Cumulative Attrition Rate 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 Year Chemistry Computer and Information Sciences Mathematics Physics and Astronomy NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type 10 20 30 40 50 60 Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year Private Public Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size 10 20 30 40 50 60 Cumulative Completion Rate 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Year Small Medium Large Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data Small: 1-7 Medium: 8-14 Large: 15+

Seven-Year Completion Rates Over Time: A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs Seven-Year Completion Rates Over Time: A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Fields 35.7 35.8 50.6 51.9 10 20 30 40 50 60 Cumulative Completion Rate SSH Fields SEM Fields NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data A-cohorts B-cohorts

Four-Year (Early) Attrition Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts 20.2 24.2 23.6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Attrition Rate NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01 Source: Council of Graduate Schools Completion and Attrition Program Data A B C

Four-Year Attrition Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Four-Year Cumulative Attrition Rates for A-, B- and C-Cohorts by Broad Fields 20

Four-Year Continuing Rates Over Time: A-, B- and C-Cohorts Overall Four-Year Cumulative Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for A-, B- and C-Cohorts 21

Trend of Decreasing Attrition and Increasing Continuing Student Rates at Four Years Overall Four-Year Cumulative Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates by Cohort Year 22

Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D. Completion Project How do completion patterns vary by ethnicity, gender and citizenship? Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers? What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations? Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data? Broad field data Exit survey Program data and broad field demographic data Broad field and program data Program data on attrition and completion

Future Ph.D. Completion Project Publications Baseline demographic data (publication expected March 2008) Student exit surveys (publication expected late fall 2008) Promising practices, policies and activities Publications based on 2007 and 2009 data submissions (2008-2010) Final “Best Practices” report (2010)