Introduction to Foresight for Policy- and Decision-Making Retreat on Technology Foresight for High-level Decision Makers Seville, October 2008 Professor Ron Johnston Australian Centre for Innovation, Sydney & Visiting Scientist, European Commission JRC IPTS

Structure of this Presentation what is it? what are the benefits? what it can do for policy? when it is applied? what it does look at?

Foresight - what is it? Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future- intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

Locating Foresight among Future-oriented Activities Prophecy Visionary thinking (e.g. consultancy services) Forecast (extrapolation, prediction; for various purposes) Futures studies (for academic purposes) Strategic planning (various levels) Scenario planning Indicative national planning (Japan, France) Prospective analyses (for academic or business purposes) Critical/ key technologies Foresight (individual) vs. Foresight programmes

Differentiating Foresight Action-oriented [vs. ‘contemplative’ (passive)] Participatory [vs. non-participatory] Alternative futures [vs. a single future state] Probable, possible and preferred futures

Where are we now? How do we get there?Where do we want to go? How things may develop? How can we prepare? policy makers company managers citizensresearchers NGOs unionsassociations consumers panels surveys scenarios roadmaps Stakeholders debating the Future in a structured way

Examples: Biofuels - Can they make a significant contribution to overcoming the looming challenges of peak oil? What are the consequences for food and fibre availability and price? What are the implications for water demand and supply? Where will production, and consumption, be concentrated? What international agreements could oversee the operation of a biofuels industry? European manufacturing - Will there be production in Europe in 2020, or will it all have been outsourced to China? What if people start fabricating their own products? What if nanotechnology allows for manufacturing atom by atom? Will factories be run without people? How will we organise manufacturing if everybody needs to take care of children or elderly half of their time? What if zero waste becomes mandatory? What kind of research do we need now to be prepared? NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

Many other examples: 1.Irrigated agriculture 2.Implications of ageing 3.Infectious diseases 4.Political change 5.Appropriate governance 6.Water availability 7.Antarctic policy 8.Refugee impacts 9.Laws of the sea 10.Human augmentation NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future Insights About the future Insights About the future Relations With respect to future Relations With respect to future Attitudes Towards the future Attitudes Towards the future produces changes Networks Linkages Common ground Shared perspectives Joint visions Networks Linkages Common ground Shared perspectives Joint visions Long term thinking Awareness of challenges Foresight & learning culture Long term thinking Awareness of challenges Foresight & learning culture Dynamics of change New perspectives Future risks & opportunities Strategic options System capabilities Stakeholders views Dynamics of change New perspectives Future risks & opportunities Strategic options System capabilities Stakeholders views Being better prepared for the future

NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future Insights About the future Insights About the future Relations With respect to future Relations With respect to future Attitudes Towards the future Attitudes Towards the future produces changes Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and strategies Changes in society for better policy implementation Changes in policy process for better decision making Foresight Policy Benefits

Actors Policy Actors Insights Actors Better decisions Foresight Dialogue Better decision making Better implementation due to better responsiveness of actors Foresight policy benefits

Evaluation Agenda- setting FORESIGHT Policy definition Learning Implementation Understanding of changes Responsiveness of the system New ideas Legitimacy, transparency Visions Policy options New policy configurations

Typical situations of Foresight for policy support challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society need for enhancement of innovation capability NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible. NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access the slide-set place, date and event name text box beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master Do not change the size nor the position of that text box Replace the mock-up texts for the place (“Place”), the date (“dd Month YYYY”) and the event name (“Event Name”) with your own texts Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (white) Keep the original font body size (7 pt) and the text on one single line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on the banner’s lower right-hand side is automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1. Duplicate the first slide as needed Do not change the size nor the position of the slide’s text box Try not to place more text on each slide than will fit in the given text box Replace the mock-up heading text (“Joint Research Centre (JRC)”) with your own text heading Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k) Keep the original font body size (28 pt) and the heading on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the font body size if needed Replace the mock-up text (“The European Commission’s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation)”) with your own text Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original typeface – Arial Keep the original flush-left justification Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use black if you need a second colour Keep the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it if unavoidable Replace the EU-27 map mock-up illustration with your own illustration(s) Try to keep your illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom- aligned with the main text box whenever possible.

Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise Diagnosis PrognosisPrescription Understanding where we are… Exploring what could happen… Debating what we would like to happen… Deciding what should be done … Structured stakeholder dialogue