FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Indicators on food deprivation and income deprivation at national and sub-national levels Methodological issues SIBRIAN, Ricardo FAO Statistics Division Viale delle Terme di Caracalla Rome - Italy

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Outline 1.Need for Food Security Statistics 2.Food Access and Income Conceptual Framework 3.Purpose of Food Security Statistics 4.Levels of aggregation of Food Security Statistics 5.Concepts on household income and expenditure 6.Food deprivation: Prevalence of food deprivation 7.Income deprivation: Prevalence of critical food poverty

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? NEED FOR FOOD SECURITY STATISTICS 1. Monitoring targets on poverty and hunger reduction World Food Summit (WFS) => halving the number of people suffering from hunger The State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI:1999,…,2006) Millennium Development Goals (MDG) => halving the proportion of people suffering from poverty and hunger The MDG Report (2005, 2006, 2007) by year 2015.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? NEED FOR FOOD SECURITY STATISTICS 2. National development targets => Poverty Reduction Strategies Papers (PRSP), => Marketing Information Systems (MIS), => Rural Development Strategies (RDS), => Food Security Monitoring Systems (FSMS), => Policies with food security impact, etc.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Food Access and Income Conceptual Framework Food consumption expenditure Food receipts free Food receipts as payment Own-production (crop/livestock/ fish/hunt/indust) Food purchase Non-essential consumption expenditures Non-food consumption expenditure needs SalesIncome Non-agric production Trading (Food/ Non- Food) Employment (Food/Non- Food) Cash receipts Debts incurred Consumptio n Expenditure Food sources Sources of income Resource flows Asset accumulation (investment) and savings FAO 2007 (from WFP 2006) LIVELIHOODS Food received at work-place

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Purpose of food security statistics 1. Assess the magnitude of food deprivation and critical food poverty 3. Linkage with livelihoods Food consumption from different sources (own-production, purchases, food-aid) Food consumption from different income sources (agric- production, non-agric production, commerce, employment – agric/non-agric, services, cash-transfers and food-aid) 2. Assess the magnitude of effects of determining factors Level of nutrient consumption (energy, protein, fat and carbohydrate) Access to food (economic, physical and cultural) Minimum nutrient needs (energy, protein, fat and carbohydrates) Critical income needs

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? 4. Food security information for development of national livelihoods Purpose of food security statistics 5. Monitoring and evaluation of effects due to interventions in policies and programmes with food security implications

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? 1. N ational and Levels of aggregation of food security statistics 2. Subnational Geographical/Administrative Area: urban, semi-urban, rural, disperse Regions: rural development, agric, economic, etc. Specific groups Income level and sources Gender (head, budget decisions, etc) Education level Occupation Household size and composition Specific groups within geographical/administrative

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Concepts on household income and expenditure Expenditure Consumption Non-Consumption Food Non-Food Direct taxes (income, etc.), pension & other social contrib., insurance premiums, etc. Re-sale Feed, food industry, losses, waste, given away etc. Non-Purchased Purchased Home consumption Away from home consumption Own production Received as gift Received as payment Institutional aid Monetary value Quantity Goods, including food, for: Monetary value Quantity INCOME Saving

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Ф [ (log e MDER –μ) / σ) ] where Ф = standard normal cumulative distribution. σ = [ log e (CV ² (x) + 1) ] 0.5 and µ = log e µ(x) – σ ² / 2 FOOD DEPRIVATION: Prevalence of food deprivation µ(x) Energy intake level, CV (x) Energy intake inequality under lognormal distribution assumption and MDER Energy intake acceptable as minimum requirement

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? FOOD DEPRIVATION: Prevalence of food deprivation MDER Minimum dietary energy requirement Weighted by sex and age population structure. Energy required by persons of the same sex and age in population groups with:  minimum body weight (5 th percentile) for attained height as in the standard reference population and  minimum sedentary physical activity  allowance for physical growth in children and adolescents  as well as allowance for pregnancy and lactation.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? CV(due to income)=CV(x|v) =  (x|v) /  (x) FOOD DEPRIVATION: Prevalence of food deprivation CV(due to requirements)=CV(x|r)  0.20

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Ф [ (log e MDERcost –μ) / σ) ] where Ф = standard normal cumulative distribution σ = [ log e (CV ² (v) + 1) ] 0.5 and µ = log e µ(v) – σ ² / 2 INCOME DEPRIVATION Prevalence of critical food poverty µ(v) Income level, CV (x) Income inequality under lognormal distribution assumption and MDERcost Cost of energy intake acceptable as minimum requirement

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? INCOME DEPRIVATION: Prevalence of critical food poverty Cost of MDER (Minimum dietary energy requirement) Nutrient costs (protein, fat and carbohydrate) for balanced MDER to provide:  12.5 percent of energy from protein,  22.5 percent of energy from fat and  65 percent of energy from carbohydrate With nutrient prices in households of the lowest income quintile (lowest 20 percent of households of low income or proxy total expenditure).

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? CV(v) =  (v) /  (v) INCOME DEPRIVATION Prevalence of critical food poverty

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Food deprivation and income deprivation in households with preschool aged children: Georgia 2004 Food deprivation in urban areas is higher than in rural areas and income deprivation in rural areas is higher than in urban areas.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? Food deprivation and income deprivation: Lao PDR Food deprivation in rural areas is higher than in urban areas and income deprivation in rural areas is as high as in urban areas.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? POLICY IMPLICATIONS and TWIN-TRACK APPROACH addressing: 1. Livelihood activities to increase income and food sources for medium and log-term development in rural and urban populations 2. Non-livelihood activities to increase food (FOOD AID) or income (TRANSFER) sources or both in crisis or for short-term impact RURALURBAN Population Food deprivation Income deprivation LOWER HIGHER LOWER HH with children Georgia Food deprivation Income deprivation HIGHER HIGH LOWER HIGH National Lao PDR Food deprivation Income deprivation HIGH HIGHER HIGH LOWER Food deprivation Income deprivation HIGH LOW HIGH LOW Food deprivation Income deprivation LOWER LOW HIGHER LOW

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? CONCLUSIONS: 2. ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ARE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT 3. FOOD SECURITY STATISTICS FOR SUBNATIONAL POPULATIONS MAY PROVIDE INPUTS FOR DIFFERENTIAL POLICIES FOR REDUCING FOOD INSECURITY 1. FOOD DEPRIVATION (UNDERNOURISHMENT) AND INCOME DEPRIVATION (CRITICAL FOOD POVERTY) CO-EXIST BUT NOT AT THE SAME LEVEL OF MAGNITUDE IN RURAL AND URBAN POPULATIONS

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries?

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Statistics Division ICAS-4, Fourth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics, Beijing, China October 2007 New Domains & Dimensions – MDGs: How to better measure MDGs, poverty and hunger in developing countries? THANK YOU !