(314) How Planning for Success Can Open the Door to Failure Bill Schoening Aug 31, 2005 – St. Louis, MO

Failure Comes in Many Forms Massive cost overruns Huge schedule delays Products that customers do not like Show-cause letters Cancellation Every failure is an embarrassment for Boeing – and for us as employees How does this happen?

Todays Topics What do we do that leads to failure? How can we recognize potential failures? What can we do to avoid failure?

Excitement of the Win

Then We Plan for Success

Doom & Gloom Doubters Not Welcome Risk Management: Address what we can handle Ignore the rest

Ignoring High Risk = Accepting High Risk

How We React without a Plan Panic Failure Press on with what we know – even if it is wrong Hope with untried approaches Overwhelmed R. I. P.

Solved Problems Reoccur Underlying causes –Long lag between decision and effect –Months, maybe even weeks, are too long for humans to perceive Solutions –Charge someone with stepping back and looking for recurring problems on a regular basis

Impossible Objectives Underlying causes –Requirements viewed as untouchable –Solution is just around the corner –Rarely teach Learning to suspect something is impossible Learning to show something is impossible Solutions –Teach how to demonstrate that something is impossible

length beam length beam constant Turret Diameter Ship Weight Demonstrating Why Not Max

Unknown User Needs Underlying causes –Focus on written requirements rather than users –Important user needs discovered late in development Solutions –Validate early and often –Primary objective is discovery, not showing –Requires real users, not surrogates

Verification and Validation Verification – process for demonstrating that a product satisfies written specifications. Validation – process for discovering unmet needs ? ? So this doesnt happen

Frequent Surprises Underlying causes –Managing things rather than intellectual content –Questions imply unknowns –Questions that go unanswered too long represent significant risks –Plans focus on deliverables and not on answering questions Solutions –Keep a running list of significant unanswered questions with due dates –Making answering questions part of the plan

Insufficient Time & Resources Underlying causes –Do not understand tasks –Staff before inputs are ready –Defer difficult tasks too often Done Defer Done Defer Solutions –Understand the necessary steps leading to SRR and SFR –Match staffing to plan –Hold NAR on feasibility of plan execution before starting

Quick Fixes Fail Underlying causes –Denial of risk –Lack of mitigation plans –Or even contingency plans –Quick, easy fix looks good, but has unknown consequences Solutions –Preplan courses of action –Pre-examine consequences of actions

Not Asking for Help Underlying causes –Loss of self esteem when asking for help –Non-advocate reviews come too late –Failure to consider possibility of catastrophic failure Solutions –Gate reviews address plans for when things go very wrong –Pay attention to symptoms of potential failure

In Conclusion Programs will fail if we are not prepared for really bad occurrences Risk Management is not enough Must teach and institutionalize –How to look –Not to be afraid to look –Looking frequently Do we need a new process? Discover Potential Catastrophes!