Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2013 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. Rating insurers in challenging times Victor Nikolskiy Associate Director 2 July 2015

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Standard & Poor’s Ratings Leadership 4 Global Analytical Capability by NRSROs 3 NRSROs Credit Analysts Credit Analyst SupervisorsTotal Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services1, ,681 Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.1, ,272 Fitch, Inc ,092 A.M. Best Company, Inc DBRS Ltd Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd Morningstar Kroll Bond Ratings22628 Egan-Jones Rating Company235 Credit Ratings Outstanding Globally 1 1. Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) filing 2013 (Exhibit 8). Note: Morningstar and Kroll — 2012 filing, 2013 N/A. 2. Others include A.M. Best Company, Inc; DBRS Ltd.; Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd.; Morningstar; Kroll Bond Ratings; Egan-Jones Rating Company. 3. NRSRO filing 2013 (Item 7). Note: Morningstar and Kroll — 2012 filing, 2013 N/A. S&P: More Than 1.1 Million Ratings Outstanding Globally

What It Is Forward-looking opinions about relative credit risk, i.e., the creditworthiness of an entity or its securities that: Strive to be globally comparable across sectors Incorporate views on relative likelihood of default that: Refer to the timely payment of interest and principal and, Are applied to entities and securities And What It Is Not Absolute measures of default probability Investment advice, a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold securities, or a comment as to market price or suitability for an investor A measure of liquidity or market value A way of defining “good” or “bad” companies, or a direct assessment of corporate governance An audit of the company or its auditors A guarantee of credit quality or of future credit risk 5 What A Credit Rating Is And What It Is Not

6 An insurer financial strength rating is a forward-looking opinion about the financial security characteristics of an insurance organization with respect to its ability to pay under its insurance policies and contracts in accordance with their terms.. What Is An Insurer Financial Strength Rating?

Global Economic Outlook 7 1.Ongoing geopolitical concerns 2.Eurozone stagnation and its potential dip back into recession 3.The Fed's tighter monetary policy in China's financial system vulnerabilities 5.Grexit. 1.The US recovery is bank on track. North American credit conditions will remain mostly stable in The U.S. economic recovery is strengthening, and we expect this trend to continue through 2015, boosted by growing momentum in the labor and housing markets. 2.Risks to Europe's growth outlook are tilted to the downside. The Eurozone economy is entering 2015 with weak tailwinds. Geopolitical factors could hurt growth. 3.Asia Pacific: Slower growth momentum. After a strong start, the pace of activity in China and Japan has been slowing late in And growth in the smaller, more trade-dependent economies never really got off the ground due to the delay in the U.S. recovery. Global Economic Outlook Real GDP Top Global Risks

Regional Economic Outlook 8 1.Limited or no GDP growth in 2015 with uncertain recovery in Concentrated economy, dependent on commodities, vulnerable to price shocks 3.Geopolitical risks remain very high 4.Local currencies fluctuations are massive Regional Economic Outlook Real GDPHydrocarbon Sector as share of GDP

Sovereign Foreign-Currency Ratings Institutional and Governance Effectiveness Economic Structure and Growth External Liquidity and International investment Position Fiscal Flexibility and Performance Government Debt Burden Monetary Flexibility AzerbaijanBBB-/Negative/A-3WeaknessNeutralStrength Weakness GeorgiaBB-/Stable/B NeutralWeakness NeutralStrengthWeakness KazakhstanBBB/Negative/A-2 WeaknessNeutral Strength Neutral BelarusB-/Stable/B WeaknessNeutralWeaknessNeutral Weakness RussiaBB+/Negative/B Weakness Neutral StrengthNeutral TurkeyBB+/Negative/B Neutral WeaknessStrengthNeutral UkraineCC/Negative/C Weakness Regional Sovereign Ratings Score Snapshot

Holistic Analysis Determining the Ratings – Key Steps BUSINESS RISK PROFILE Industry And Country Risk Competitive Position FINANCIAL RISK PROFILE Capital And Earnings Risk Position Financial Flexibility MODIFIERS Enterprise Risk Management Management And Governance CAPS Liquidity Sovereign Risk SUPPORT Group Government SACP: Stand Alone Credit Profile GCP: Group Credit Profile ICR: Issuer Credit Rating FSR: Financial Strength Rating

Determining the Ratings – Key Steps N/A--Not applicable. Anchor Business risk profile Financial risk profile Extremely strong Very strong Strong Moderately strong Upper adequate Lower adequate Less than adequate Weak Very weak Extremely weak Excellentaa+aaaa-a+aa-bbb+bbb-N/A Very Strongaaaa-aa- or a+a+ or aaa-bbbbb+bb N/A Stronga+a+ or aa or a-a- bbb+bbbbb+bb-b+ Satisfactorya or a-a- bbb+ bbbbbb-bbbb-b Fairbbb+ bbb+ or bbb bbb bbb-bb+bbb+b Vulnerablebbb- bb+ bbbb-bb Highly vulnerablebb- b+bbb- or lower

Insurers’ ratings distribution in the region Data as of 1 July 2015, Standard and Poor’s

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