Moving To Incorporate Social Science Results into Meteorological Operations / Services A Report Back to the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Miami, Florida March 2011

 August 6, 2009, ICMSSR meeting, Action Item  “OFCM will organize an interagency exploratory meeting on the social science aspects of meteorological services and supporting research to facilitate the exchange of ideas and information.”  64 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) panel: Understanding Hurricane Response for Improved Stakeholder/User Reaction.  Key takeaway from panel: the weather community should further integrate social science research results to improve information and services. ▪ IHC participants agreed social science efforts should include all natural hazards. ▪ OFCM should organize a follow-on workshop to compile key recommendations for potential government action/implementation. 2

 Objective 1. Identify agency-specific and agency- overlapping social-science related actions and social science needs/priorities as related to meteorological operations/services.  Objective 2. Compile key recommendations for potential government actions for implementation in meteorological forecasting and warning programs in the near, intermediate, and long term.  Objective 3. Develop an Action Agenda for the further inclusion of social science research results into meteorological operations/services. 3

 Facilitators:  Dr. Brenda Phillips, Oklahoma State University  Ms. Brenda Philips, University of Massachusetts  Dr. Denise Stephenson Hawk, Former Director, Societal-Environmental Research & Education Laboratory, NCAR  Participants  Former Director, Emergency Management Agency  National Weather Service  U.S. Air Force  U.S. Navy  Federal Emergency Management Agency  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers  U.S. Geological Survey  U.S. DOE Argonne National Laboratory  U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission  U.S. Department of Transportation 4

 Social science-related work is evident in the delivery of meteorological services as the majority of the public remains safe during severe weather and technological hazard events.  Participants expressed a need to further use, disseminate and communicate meteorological information in ways that the public understands.  Risk communication, the development and dissemination of effective messages for the different sectors of the public, was consistently identified as the most important need for the agencies. 5

 More effective mechanisms should be developed for learning about, accessing, and implementing the breadth of social science research and expertise that exist in academia, professional organizations, governmental agencies and non-governmental agencies. 6

 Emergency Management (e.g., Mobile, Alabama)  Build appropriate relationships before the disaster  Partner with: ▪ Elected Officials ▪ Media ▪ National Weather Service ▪ Citizens ▪ Non-traditional partners  Closer professional relationships among response and recovery organizations in the planning process should translate into better coordination and teamwork in emergencies ▪ Collaboration is key; build a ‘culture of preparedness’ Social science-related work is evident in the delivery of meteorological services as the majority of the public remains safe during severe weather and technological hazard events. 7

 DoD (Air Force and Navy)  Warnings and advisory leadtime driven by warfighter requirements; based on time needed to take actions. ▪ For example, base commanders must make decisions to move assets (ships / aircraft) out of harms way in advance of some events (e.g., hurricanes). ▪ At least 72 hours for ship sortie (120 hours desired) and aircraft hours.  Bottom line: Air Force and Navy weather personnel work closely with leadership to meet warfighter needs. Social science-related work is evident in the delivery of meteorological services as the majority of the public remains safe during severe weather and technological hazard events. 8

 National Weather Service  Understand that the words used to communicate weather predictions are important. ▪ History ▪ Early 70s, NWS engaged social scientists to fine tune and reword warnings to ensure right message delivered to EMs, 1 st responders, and media. ▪ Developed course: Warning—A Call to Action.  Designed to communicate key factors that best motivate people to act  Inclusion of social sciences into delivery of meteorological services has a long and significant history. ▪ Work must continue as NWS partners to ensure safety of the people. Social science-related work is evident in the delivery of meteorological services as the majority of the public remains safe during severe weather and technological hazard events. 9

 Several common social science-related needs emerged during the Mini-Workshop. These needs fell into six broad thematic areas:  Knowledge transfer  Vulnerability assessment  Risk communication  End-to-end analysis  Decision support  Partnerships 10

Knowledge Transfer  Provide an avenue for the Federal agencies to disseminate their social science efforts to a broader audience to reduce replication of federal, state and local work.  Develop a repository of ‘best practice’ warning messages and graphics, categorized by type of weather event and tailored to all sectors of the public. There is an extensive body of knowledge and research from the social sciences that can inform agency operations. New methods that go beyond journal articles and conference presentations need to be developed that can bridge the research-to- operations divide for this diverse group of government stakeholders. In addition, methods should be developed for agencies to share their own social science results. 11

Vulnerability Assessment  The demographics of communities influence the need for diverse warning messages and for a broad range of support services. Subsequently, there is a need to design messages, services and partnerships which ensure the safety of all sectors of the public.  There is a need to improve the preparedness of and support for higher risk populations that are not in emergency-ready facilities. Agencies highlighted the need to identify socially vulnerable populations that have limited capabilities to prepare for and respond to hazards and subsequently develop long term planning and risk assessment strategies, warning messages, and adjust stakeholder roles. The development of measures of economic vulnerability as a result of weather hazards also emerged as a need. 12

Risk Communication  Provide clear, concise, actionable information and diverse messages that define levels of risk and are understood by all sectors of the public.  Seek communication experts who understand the language of meteorologists, the media, and the public, to serve as ‘translators’ of multidisciplinary information. All agencies saw the need to improve risk communication, its development, dissemination, and message, to elicit a certain public response. Effective methods for communicating uncertainty (versus deterministic information), and reaching and communicating with socially vulnerable populations were two topics that recurred in the presentations. 13

Decision Support Cluster / Community Execution (e.g., emergency management, trusted agents, television/radio) Environmental Observations / Modeling Warnings / Forecasts Extreme Wx EventsTechnological Hazards SOCIETAL IMPACTS Severe Storms Tornadoes Tropical Cyclones Flooding Space Wx WMD Radiological Release General Population Businesses and Communications, including COOP Transportation Sector Infrastructure, including power grid and communications Disenfranchised (e.g., elderly, disabled, poor)

End-to-End Analysis  Perform a prototype field study, led by a team comprised of individuals (social scientists, meteorologists, K-16 educators, emergency managers, first responders, NGOs, the public, etc.) who will interface and partner directly with all communities, and document the flow of information, identifying gaps in communication, understanding and actions taken. End-to-end analysis examines how information flows among the different decision makers based on receiver characteristics, organizational structures, the message and the method of dissemination (e.g., CASA-related efforts). Agencies can determine how to use best the meteorological data to affect public response with an in-depth knowledge of the end-to-end process. 15

Decision Support  Develop visual and/or text-based products to convey probabilistic information regarding flood risk (based on post storm analyses) required for preparedness and response by non-NOAA audiences.  Package weather information with the needs of responders, such as emergency and road managers and in mind as well as other end-users and ensure that weather-related products and messages are consistent. A common theme was the need to better communicate scientific information to emergency managers to facilitate their decision making given their varying levels of training, access to technology and diverse responsibilities during a hazard event. 16

Partnering  Build bridges across agencies to raise awareness, educate and address the needs of key communities, particularly, State Departments of Transportation and NWS.  FHWA seeks enhanced partnerships to meet the need for tailored weather products / services for surface transportation. Effective methods of partnering with a wide array of stakeholders were also indicated in the presentations and discussions as an area of concern and need. 17

AF Weather Nat. Weather Svc Navy METOC USACE USGS DOT/FHWA FEMA NRC NOAA DODOthers Decision Support Cluster / Community Execution (e.g., emergency management, trusted agents, television/radio) Incorporating Social Science Results into Meteorological Services DOE (Man-made Hazards) (Natural Hazards) Others FEMA

 Develop a repository of ‘best practice’ warning messages and graphics, categorized by type of weather event, which is tailored to various sectors of the public.  Can especially aid in improving services to new and emerging hazards (e.g.., space weather, technological hazards, transportation sector).  Of particular importance for populations that remain at higher risk. 19

 Explore partnerships to address the weather needs of the traveling public.  Perform a prototype field study, led by an interdisciplinary team to document the flow of weather information, identify gaps in communication, how people understand weather information and actions taken.  Identify a regular and realistic means to engage agencies— with social scientists, emergency managers and others—on issues related on ways to safeguard the public. 20 Recommended Actions Possible Ways Forward

QUESTIONS? 21