Volunteer Angler Data Collection and Methods of Inference Kristen Olson University of Nebraska-Lincoln February 2,

Two perspectives on survey statistics Survey quality framework (Biemer and Lyberg, 2003) – Adopted by many national statistical organizations around the world Total survey error framework (Groves, 1989) – Focus on one part of the survey quality framework 2

Survey Quality Accessibility – Availability of survey results to those who need them and are interpretable Timeliness – Results are available when needed Coherence – Related statistics can be combined Completeness – Statistics are available for all needed domains Accuracy – Difference between ‘truth’ and the estimate; measured by variance and bias of estimates or mean square error 3

Survey Quality (2) Dimensions combined should yield “fitness for use” – Assure quality through processes, as each dimension may be difficult to measure directly Accuracy is one dimension of quality – But it is the “cornerstone” – With inaccurate data, many would argue (e.g., Biemer & Lyberg, 2003, p. 24) that the other quality dimensions don’t matter 4

5 Construct Measurement Response Edited Response Target Population Sampling Frame Sample Respondents Postsurvey Adjustments Survey Statistic MeasurementRepresentation Groves, et al. 2004, Survey Methodology Figure 2.5 Validity Measurement Error Processing Error Adjustment Error Nonresponse Error Sampling Error Coverage Error

TSE in notation 6

Coverage Error Gap between the – Target population - who/what you want to make inference to, including definitions of time and space - and – The sampling frame – list or set of methods and procedures used to construct a sample; want to be as complete as possible Example: – Target population = All possible anglers at all possible sites for all possible species during the week containing June 1, 2012 in the state of Maryland – Sampling frame = List of marinas, docks and shore fishing sites; method to generate phone numbers for households; list of names and phone numbers of known anglers 7

Coverage Error – Volunteer Surveys Who is the target population? – Often the same as for probability-based surveys What is the sampling frame? – May be difficult to define – If website and , then can conceptualize loosely as persons who (1) have internet access, (2) log on to website or open , (3) visit the part of the website that contains information about the volunteer angler program – If in-store flyers, then can conceptualize loosely as persons who (1) visit the store and (2) see the flyer 8

Coverage Error – Why does it matter? Potential source for bias in survey statistics 9 What you want Coverage rate = Proportion of target population missing from frame Difference between those who are on frame and those who are not on frame on statistic of interest

TSE in notation 10

Sampling Error Gap between – The sampling frame - list or set of methods and procedures used to construct a sample - and – The sample – the set of units (persons, households, businesses, etc.) that are contacted for data collection Example: – Frame: List of known anglers – Sample: Subgroup of list of known anglers, selected with known probability 11

Principles of Survey Samples Realism – Sample reflects an actual population with real population parameters Randomization – Chance mechanisms are used to select units, not personal judgment Representation – Mirror or miniature of the population 12

Two approaches to survey sampling Chance based approach – Probability sampling – Dominates current survey practice Purposive selection – Non-probability sampling – Purely purposive selection has very limited use for making statements about a population from the sample (inference). 13

14 Two approaches to survey sampling (2) Probability samples – All units on the frame have a known probability of selection. – The method for selecting units from the frame involves randomness or chance. – Any unit’s chance of selection is determined randomly using mechanical rules – Examples: Simple random samples, cluster samples, stratified random samples, probability proportionate to size samples Non-probability samples – Units on the frame have unknown probabilities of selection. – The method for selecting units from the frame involves judgment. – Any unit’s chance of selection is determined by a personal (researcher or participant) decision. – Examples: Snowball samples, Quota samples, Convenience samples, Volunteer samples

Sampling Error – Volunteer Surveys What is the sampling frame? – May be difficult to define What is the sampling mechanism? – Out of the control of the researchers / management organization – Probability of being selected into the sample is unknown – Unclear what the link is between the sample and the frame 15

Sampling Error – Why does it matter? With probability samples, there are no biasing (systematic) errors – That is, the sample estimates won’t be consistently too high or too low due to sampling error, although that does not rule out other error sources The variable errors, known as ‘standard errors,’ have known and well-defined formulas and properties to link the sample back to the frame – They can be used define a range of plausible values in which the ‘true value’ is likely to fall, known as a ‘confidence interval’ 16

Sampling Error – Why does it matter? (2) There is no uniformly accepted scientific method for linking a non-probability sample back to the sample frame Many approaches have been tried, all using statistical models to try to make the non-probability method ‘look like’ the full population Can make the non-probability sample align with the frame on certain characteristics that are used in the model, but no guarantee for other characteristics – Yeager, et al. (2011, POQ) compared adjusted estimates from 7 non-probability samples and 2 probability samples to a variety of benchmark criteria. The adjusted non- probability samples always had substantially higher error rates than the probability samples. 17

TSE in notation 18

Nonresponse Error Gap between the – Sample – the people, households, businesses, or other units selected for data collection – and the – Respondents – the people, households, businesses or other units who actually participated in the data collection Example: – Sample: Selected anglers randomly selected from a list of known anglers – Respondents: Anglers who actually completed the logbooks and other questions asked 19

Nonresponse Error – Volunteer Surveys Who is the sample? Who are the respondents? – Difficult to define these two groups separately, as the mechanism for selecting persons to participate is their own self-selection into the data collection effort 20

Nonresponse Error – Why does it matter? Potential source for bias in survey statistics 21 What you want Nonresponse rate = Proportion of frame population missing from respondents Difference between those who responded and those who did not respondent on statistic of interest

Nonresponse Error – Why does it matter? (2) Potential source for bias in survey statistics 22 Nonresponse bias of the respondent mean Covariance between probability of participating and the survey variable of interest Average probability of participating (similar to the response rate)

Volunteer Surveys from a Survey Quality Framework Accessibility – Easily accomplished for volunteer surveys Timeliness – If collected by agency who needs the information, results can be accessed at any time. Question is whether the information is ‘complete’ Coherence – May be difficult to compare volunteer data with official statistics Completeness – May be limited, depending on characteristics of volunteers Accuracy – Unknown, difficult to assess without external benchmarks – No assurance that the sample is linked to the population through a probability mechanism 23