The Strategic Direction of the Second National Development Plan (2015/ /20) NPA

Presentation Outline  Background to the Strategic Direction  What informs the NDPII Strategic Direction  NDPII Strategic Direction  Theme  Objectives  Strategies  Development Priorities  Preliminary Macroeconomic strategy

1.0 Background to the strategic Direction  In 2007, the Government of Uganda adopted the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF)  It embodies long, medium and short term development planning at various levels of national administration.  To operationalise CNDPF, Uganda Vision 2040 was produced with an aim of transforming Uganda from a peasant and low-income country to a competitive upper middle –income country by 2040

Background Cont’d  Conceptually, The Uganda Vision 2040 revolves around strengthening the fundamentals(Infrastructure, Human Capital etc) so as to harness the abundant opportunities(Agriculture, Tourism, minerals etc).  To achieve the Vision aspirations, NDPI (2010/ /15) has been implemented and is ending in this FY.  NDPII is under formulation

What informs the NDPII Strategic Direction?

2.What informs NDPII strategic Direction?  The Uganda Vision 2040  The NDPI Mid-Term Review  Regional and International Development Contexts  EAC Monetary Union Protocols  Africa Agenda 2063  The Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda

2.1NDPII Prioritization Framework

2.2 STRATEGIC DIRECTION: Theme and Objectives  Theme “Strengthening Uganda’s competitiveness for Sustainable Wealth creation, employment and inclusive growth”.  Objectives 1.Increase sustainable production, productivity and value addition in key primary growth drivers 2.Increase the stock and quality of strategic infrastructure to accelerate the country’s competitiveness 3.Enhance human capital development 4.Strengthen mechanisms for quality, effective and efficient service delivery

2.3 NDPII Strategies  Increase competiveness and positioning the country to benefit from regional and global integration  Value addition for increased export earnings and employment.  Strengthen the private sector with strong local participation in the quasi-market approach.  Investment in Infrastructure through fiscal expansion.  Fast tracking of skills development through reforms in education and training curricular.  Strengthening institutions/ institutional framework (especially accountability) to increase efficiency in resource utilisation.

2.4 Development Priorities  Agriculture  The largely subsistence nature of agriculture requires urgent need to invest in increased commercial production and productivity enhancement.  Prioritized enterprises: Cotton, Coffee, Tea, Maize, Rice, Cassava, Beans, Fish, Beef, Milk, Citrus and Bananas.  Uganda’s Agricultural Value Chain  Focuses on; Production, Transportation, Storage, Processing and Marketing and Distribution

Development Priorities Cont’d  Tourism  Justification  Tourism Value Chain  Focuses on; pre-visit activities, international and local transportation, information and reception services, hospitality industry, excursions, as well as, tourists’ attractions and amenities.

Development Priorities Cont’d  Mineral Development  Justification  Mineral Development Value Chain  Focuses on; exploration, mining, mineral processing, smelting and refining, as well as, value addition

Development Priorities Cont’d  Infrastructure  Transport  Standard Gauge Railway  Strategic roads  Water Transport  Energy  solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower, so as to increase power generation

Development Priorities  Oil and Gas  Refinery  Pipeline  Water for Production  ICT

Development Priorities  Human Capital Development  Twin-track approach - long-term and short-term Long-term focus:  Increasing quality and quantity of basic education (primary to secondary).  Provision of appropriate skills development as needed in the economy.  Reducing fertility (to attain a more favourable age structure),  Reducing maternal and infant mortality, thereby raising the life expectancy  Increasing the mean years of schooling (to keep pupils, particularly girls, in school for fertility reduction);  Improvement of nutrition outcomes especially for women of reproductive age and children below 5-years

Development Priorities Cont’d  Human Capital Development  Short-term focus:  Provision of technical and specialized skills especially for the youth who have either completed tertiary training or dropped out of primary and secondary education.  Increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate  Reduction in the number of maternal deaths  Reduction in number of cases and deaths due to malaria especially among children and pregnant mothers; and

2.5 Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy  Growth will be driven by export growth oriented productivity changes and public investment, at a conservative average rate of about 8 percent.  Infrastructure spending will be the major driver for the fiscal deficit peaking at 9% of GDP by 2017/18  Domestic resource mobilization will be a corner stone for the next NDP, particularly focusing on raising corporation tax revenues, widening the VAT coverage and improving efficiency of tax collection  Oil revenues are expected to initially be about 0.5% of GDP in 2018/19 and gradually increase over the years.

Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy Cont’d  Expenditures are expected to peak to 23-24% of GDP owing to infrastructure expenditure in the critical years of the NDP; Based on the MTR findings, NDPII will sequence spending priorities  Monetary policy will be guided by the desire to keep macroeconomic stability by maintaining inflation between 5-10%.  External concessional and semi-concessional financing will remain the key sources for borrowing over the medium-term

For God and my Country Thursday, September 17,