ฤาประเทศไทยจะเกิดวิกฤติอาหารใน อนาคต : มุมมองของนักวิชาการ ดร. สาโรช อังสุมาลิน คณบดีคณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์

World Oil Demand, Supply and Prices

World demand for oil

World oil production

Price of gasoline in Thailand

 Food security concern with the expansion of bio-fuels in Thailand Both agricultural commodity and energy prices have increased significantly in recent years. Land is increasingly needed for bio-energy production The replacement of food crops to bio-fuel revolution lead to supply shortages and putting millions at risk of starvation. The shift by farmers from traditional staples to alternative energy crops has helped push commodities prices up and touched off a global debate about food security. Growing bio-fuel feedstocks could improve the income of rural folks and thus contribute to better food access.

Empirical Evidences in Thailand

Relative price of rice/cassava

Relative price of rice/sugarcane

Relative price of rice/maize

Relative price of palm oil/rubber

Conclusion

 Food security concern with the expansion of bio-fuels in Thailand Land is increasingly needed for bio-energy production –Correct, especially if the government strongly implements the bio-fuel policy. –Planting areas of cassava, sugarcane and palm oil are expected to increase. –Maize is increasingly strong. (The United States uses maize to produce ethanol which causes the rising price of maize in the world market recently.)

The replacement of food crops to bio-fuel revolution lead to supply shortages and putting millions at risk of starvation. –Incorrect, especially in the case of Thailand. –Land to grow food crop (rice) is different from land to grow cassava and sugarcane. –Rice is grown in “low” land while cassava and sugarcane are grown in up-land. –The above relative price analysis indicates that the price of rice increases relative to prices of cassava and sugarcane. It can, then, be forecasted that there should no conversion of land from the cultivation of rice to the other two crops. –Evidences in the past also support the above statement. Rice production kept on increasing gradually in 1970s and 1980s.

–There will be no problem of staple food security (rice) in Thailand. –The contribution of Thailand to the world staple food (rice) security would not be in doubt either as Thai rice export has been increasing over the years.

Growing bio-fuel feedstocks could improve the income of rural folks and thus contribute to better food access –Correct

The shift by farmers from traditional staples to alternative energy crops –May be –There will be a competition among up-land crops. –Planting areas of cassava may reduce while those of sugarcane and maize may increase. –There is a theoretical tendency that palm oil is going to invade cassava and sugarcane growing areas. –Palm oil cannot compete with rubber.

–I think another important problem would arise: As cassava and maize are converted to produce bio-fuel, there will be less supply of raw materials for animal feeds. We can expect that prices of poultries, pigs, beef and diary products would go up. These will hurt everyone.

Poor people spend a much bigger share of their budgets on food than they do on energy. –Correct, especially landless farmers and poor people in town.

It can be concluded also that weather or global warming may be the important factor affecting food production and security in the future.