Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Regression and correlation methods

Advertisements

Visual effects have come a long way since Star Wars took home the first Academy Award for Best Visual Effects in A look at every Visual Effects.

Student Quiz Grades Test Grades 1.Describe the association between Quiz Grades and Test Grades. 2.Write the.

Regression Analysis Once a linear relationship is defined, the independent variable can be used to forecast the dependent variable. Y ^ = bo + bX bo is.

Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director.

Correlation Correlation is the relationship between two quantitative variables. Correlation coefficient (r) measures the strength of the linear relationship.

What does it take to win? By: Anna Curtis Study: When it comes to the Oscars, do the chances of a movie or actor winning have anything to do with the year.

Cinematic Creativity and Aesthetics: Impact Criteria and Component Predictors.

1 More Regression Information. 2 3 On the previous slide I have an Excel regression output. The example is the pizza sales we saw before. The first thing.

Correlations. Review of Analyses n Chi-Squared –2 Qualitative Variables –Research Question: Are these variables related (Are the frequencies even) –Questions.

ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF THE REGRESSION MODEL. Assessing the Model’s Strength Although the best straight line through a set of points may have been found.

Factors Affecting Jeffry Ahlvin, Darren Doi Eric Luckwald, Charles Rabkin Micah Witt, Jong Woo, Calvin Yeung November 29, 2004.

Correlation 1. Correlation - degree to which variables are associated or covary. (Changes in the value of one tends to be associated with changes in the.

Summary of Quantitative Analysis Neuman and Robson Ch. 11

Key Successes in the British Film Industry. Objective Explain why some British films have been successful.

WARM – UP Can you accurately predict your TEST grade based on your QUIZ grade? STUDENT QUIZ TEST 1.Describe.

Lecture 15 Basics of Regression Analysis

1 Doing Statistics for Business Doing Statistics for Business Data, Inference, and Decision Making Marilyn K. Pelosi Theresa M. Sandifer Chapter 11 Regression.

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Copyright © 2013, 2009, and 2007, Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 12 Analyzing the Association Between Quantitative Variables: Regression Analysis Section.

Topic 6.1 Statistical Analysis. Lesson 1: Mean and Range.

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best in movies, honoring films released.

Regression Analysis. Scatter plots Regression analysis requires interval and ratio-level data. To see if your data fits the models of regression, it is.

You want to examine the linear dependency of the annual sales of produce stores on their size in square footage. Sample data for seven stores were obtained.

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best in movies, honoring films released.

Variables Instrumentales Econometría UDESA. Example Wooldridge The estimate for β 1 implies an almost 11% return for another year of education.

A Night at the Oscars The Oscars, awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, showcase the best movies, honoring films released.

Section 3.2 Part 1 Statistics. Correlation r The correlation measures the direction and the strength of the linear relationship between two quantitative.

Investing in Major Films MA 331 Project Show Down Created By: The Fantastic Three! Mengting Guo Yuxiao Ning Haig Shishmanian.

Steps in Regression Analysis (1) Choose the dependent and independent variables (2) Examine the scatterplots and the correlation matrix Check for any high.

MGS3100_04.ppt/Sep 29, 2015/Page 1 Georgia State University - Confidential MGS 3100 Business Analysis Regression Sep 29 and 30, 2015.

Inference for Regression Chapter 14. Linear Regression We can use least squares regression to estimate the linear relationship between two quantitative.

The setting for Slumdog Millionaire is  A. Mexico City, Mexico  B. Delhi, India  C. Dhaka, Bangladesh  D. Mumbai, India.

Lesson Multiple Regression Models. Objectives Obtain the correlation matrix Use technology to find a multiple regression equation Interpret the.

Multiple Regression BPS chapter 28 © 2006 W.H. Freeman and Company.

© Copyright McGraw-Hill Correlation and Regression CHAPTER 10.

Chapter 16 Data Analysis: Testing for Associations.

Regression Analysis Relationship with one independent variable.

Aim: Review for Exam Tomorrow. Independent VS. Dependent Variable Response Variables (DV) measures an outcome of a study Explanatory Variables (IV) explains.

STA291 Statistical Methods Lecture LINEar Association o r measures “closeness” of data to the “best” line. What line is that? And best in what terms.

Applied Quantitative Analysis and Practices LECTURE#25 By Dr. Osman Sadiq Paracha.

Scatter Diagrams scatter plot scatter diagram A scatter plot is a graph that may be used to represent the relationship between two variables. Also referred.

Essential Statistics Chapter 51 Least Squares Regression Line u Regression line equation: y = a + bx ^ –x is the value of the explanatory variable –“y-hat”

Reminder Remember that both mean and standard deviation are not resistant measures so you want to take that into account when calculating the correlation.

Statistics Group 1 Elisabeth Brino Jamie Derbidge Slade Litten Kristen Kidder Jamie.

Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice- Hall, Inc. Chap 14-1 Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach 6 th Edition.

EXCEL DECISION MAKING TOOLS BASIC FORMULAE - REGRESSION - GOAL SEEK - SOLVER.

LESSON 6: REGRESSION 2/21/12 EDUC 502: Introduction to Statistics.

Regression Analysis Deterministic model No chance of an error in calculating y for a given x Probabilistic model chance of an error First order linear.

1 Forecasting/ Causal Model MGS Forecasting Quantitative Causal Model Trend Time series Stationary Trend Trend + Seasonality Qualitative Expert.

Film as Literature: A New Section April 21. Agenda Review Introduce New Section Begin Film.

Do MPAA Ratings Affect Revenues at the Box Office?

Higher Media Studies Production Unit Module 3: Development Lessons 1-3: Adaptation, Market Value & Where are we going to show this film?

MGS4020_Minitab.ppt/Jul 14, 2011/Page 1 Georgia State University - Confidential MGS 4020 Business Intelligence Regression Analysis By Using Minitab Jul.

Prediction of Box Office Gross Revenue

GS/PPAL Section N Research Methods and Information Systems

BASIC ECONOMETRICS.

Regression Analysis AGEC 784.

FILMS ARGUMENTS FOR FILMS.

Science fiction film.

YEAR 10 DRAMA CELEBRATE THE OSCARS. YEAR 10 DRAMA CELEBRATE THE OSCARS.

Regression Analysis.

Correlation and Regression

Regression Computer Print Out

Warm-up: This table shows a person’s reported income and years of education for 10 participants. The correlation is .79. State the meaning of this correlation.

Simple Linear Regression

AP Statistics Section 3.2 Part 1 AP Statistics

Oscar Nominees: Which Films Provided Studios with the Best ROI

Presentation transcript:

Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date

Summary Statistics Winning Nominees MeanMinimumMaximu m MedianStandard Deviation Revenue Budget Running Time Days released before ceremony

MeanMinimumMaximumMedianStandard Deviation Revenue Budget Running Time Days released before ceremony Losing Nominees Summary Statistics

95% Confidence. H0H0 H1H1 P Value Days from Ceremony μ w -μ L =0μ w -μ L < Does a closer release date indicate a higher chance of winning? T-Test

VariableCoefficientsP-value Intercept Adjusted Revenue E Adjusted Budget E Days from release to award Running Time Experienced Director Comedy Drama Thriller True Story Original Major Studio R-Squared.143 Significance F0.034 n143

Ŷ= 1.35E -10 x E -10 x E - 4 x x x x x x x x x 11 Our Equation X 1 =Adjusted Revenue x 2 =Adjusted Budget X 3 = Release Date X 4 = Running Time X 5 = Director Experience X 6 =Comedy X 7 = Drama X 8 = Thriller X 9 = True StoryX 10 = Original X 11 = Major Studio

Film Lost in Translation Master and Commander Mystic River Seabiscuit The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ŷ

Film Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Frost/Nixon Milk The Reader ŷ

Conclusions The strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar Winnings We showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a myth Interestingly, we found a Negative correlation between experience of director and winning. Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.

Credits Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-Pounds Assistant Excel TechnicianBryce Gerard Data CollectionGrisel Zuniga Warren Brown- Pounds Bryce Gerard Regression AnalystsWarren Brown-Pounds Bryce Gerard Data Provided By imdb.com boxofficemojo.com PowerPoint DesignBryce GerardBased on an Idea byBryce Gerard Special Thanks to: Rajat Gupta