New Zealand Society of Actuaries Financial Services Forum 27 November 2009

Do cohort mortality trends emigrate? Alison O’Connell New Zealand Society of Actuaries Financial Services Forum Auckland, 27 November 2009

Why should we be interested? The UK has a golden cohort, born , of ‘super-select’ longevity. Are migrants from this cohort a risk for NZ Super? Multi-disciplinary Actuarial Profession conference on mortality and longevity in Edinburgh, October 2009: optimism on future longevity

UK migrants to New Zealand Dominant source country historically; still significant Largest birth country of overseas-born residents (6% of total population) 13% of NZ deaths were born in UK Nearly all NZ residents born in UK of golden cohort ages have been in NZ for 30+ years; over half for 40+ years Source data from Statistics New Zealand

Basis of mortality analysis and forecasting Annual rate of change in the mortality rate = 1 - q x,t /q x,t-1 (or m x ) >0 if mortality is improving

England & Wales average annual rate of mortality improvement: The golden cohort Males Age %3.9%3.1%4.0%3.4% 50.8%4.6%2.7%6.0%1.4% 100.6%2.5%2.2%2.3%1.9% 150.3%1.3%1.0%3.1%2.7% 201.7%1.2%-0.7%1.0%2.3% 251.8%0.5%-0.5% 1.5% 301.4% -0.7%-0.8%0.9% 351.3%2.1%-0.7%0.7%0.5% 400.3%2.1%1.5%0.8%1.2% 450.0%2.1%2.4%0.9%1.2% 500.2%1.5%2.8%2.2%1.2% 551.1%0.8%3.2%2.6%2.4% 601.2% 2.4%3.1%3.0% 650.7%1.4%1.6%3.6%3.7% 700.5%1.1%1.7%2.9%4.0% 750.8%0.7%1.6%2.2%3.2% 801.0%0.3%1.3%2.1%2.6% 851.2%0.2%1.1%1.2%2.4% Source: Calculated from period q x, ONS Females %3.7%3.3%3.2%1.4% 1.1%3.8%2.0%2.5%2.1% 0.4%2.0%2.6%3.7%1.0% 0.1%1.8%1.2%1.5%2.5% 1.8%1.9%0.5%1.0%2.2% 1.6%1.2%1.7%0.0%1.4% 1.7%2.2%1.3%0.4%2.0% 1.6%2.1%1.2%0.3%1.4% 0.9%2.0%2.6%0.4%1.4% 0.0%2.0%2.3%1.2%1.0% 0.2%1.2%2.6%1.3%1.5% 0.3%0.4%2.4%2.0% 1.2%0.4%1.3%2.7%2.3% 1.5%0.7% 2.9%3.1% 1.7%1.1%1.0%2.1%3.2% 1.7%1.3% 1.5%2.4% 1.8%0.8%1.5%1.4%2.0% 1.4%0.6%1.5%0.9%1.7% Shading: Cell value exceeds average plus 1 SD for that time period (ages 20+ only)

Questions for today 1.What caused the golden cohort? 2.Did the mortality advantages of the UK’s golden cohort migrate to NZ? 3.Does NZ have a golden cohort? 4.What does this mean for future longevity in NZ?

What caused the golden cohort? Small cohorts WWII diet as children Welfare State after WWII Smoking declines early-mid life Medical improvements later life...?

Cohort life expectancies: history Source data: Cohort tables, ONS and Statistics New Zealand e0 e45 e65 Males

Courtesy The Plunket Society

Questions for today 1.What caused the golden cohort? 2.Did the mortality advantages of the UK’s golden cohort migrate to NZ? 3.Does NZ have a golden cohort? 4.What does this mean for future longevity in NZ?

UK migrants have better mortality than NZ-born Source: Calculated from Statistics New Zealand data MalesFemales New Zealand born SMR CI lower CI upper United Kingdom born SMR CI lower CI upper Other overseas born SMR CI lower CI upper SMRs to estimated resident total New Zealand population

UK migrants have better mortality at golden cohort ages Source: Calculated from Statistics New Zealand data MalesFemales Ages n/a ******** ******** * SMRs of UK born NZ residents to estimated resident total NZ population * denotes significance at 95% level n/a indicates number of deaths fewer than 100

UK golden cohort migrants have better mortality than NZ-born NM Source: Calculated from Statistics New Zealand data SMRs to estimated resident total New Zealand population, Males All Māori All non- Māori NZ born non- Māori UK born Females All Māori All non- Māori NZ born non- Māori UK born All ages ****** n/a n/a ***** ******** ****** **

Questions for today 1.What caused the golden cohort? 2.Did the mortality advantages of the UK’s golden cohort migrate to NZ? 3.Does NZ have a golden cohort? 4.What does this mean for future longevity in NZ?

New Zealand average annual rate of mortality improvement: A golden cohort? Males Age %2.9%2.6%4.6%3.2% 51.6%2.7% 5.1%3.7% 101.5%3.4%-0.1%3.3%2.2% %1.2%0.3%3.5%4.4% %-0.8%-0.9%5.0%3.7% 250.2%-0.9%-0.3%2.3%3.5% 300.2%1.1%0.0%1.2%3.0% %2.4%-0.1%2.4%1.0% %2.1%2.2%1.9%0.6% 450.0%1.5%2.7%2.9%1.9% %2.0%2.3%3.6%3.0% %1.5%2.7%3.9%3.8% %1.5%2.8%3.5%4.1% %1.2%2.5%3.3%4.1% %1.0%2.1%2.8%3.8% %0.9%2.0%2.5%3.2% %0.9%1.3%2.4%2.8% 850.2%0.8%1.8%1.0%1.8% Source: Calculated from period q x, Statistics New Zealand Females %2.5%5.3%1.6%2.2% 1.4%3.9%0.5%3.7%3.3% 0.9%2.6%3.3%0.9%3.7% -1.5%-0.4%2.0%3.8%2.9% -0.3%-1.3%1.8%2.8%4.1% 0.9%0.7%1.1%1.4%4.9% 0.7%2.0%1.1%2.0%1.5% 0.7%2.7%1.3%2.9%1.1% -0.5%2.1% 3.0%1.0% -0.6%0.6%2.9%3.3%2.1% -0.2%1.3%1.2%3.6%3.3% 0.4%0.6%1.8%2.8%3.5% 0.5%1.2%1.7%2.1%3.2% 0.3%0.7%2.4%2.2%2.9% 0.7%1.3%1.9%2.6% 0.9%1.9% 2.1%2.5% 0.9%1.8%1.5%2.1% 0.4%2.4%1.3% 1.5% Shading: Cell value exceeds average plus 1 SD for that time period (ages 20+ only)

New Zealand average annual rate of mortality improvement: A golden cohort? Males Age %2.9%2.6%4.6%3.2% 51.6%2.7% 5.1%3.7% 101.5%3.4%-0.1%3.3%2.2% %1.2%0.3%3.5%4.4% %-0.8%-0.9%5.0%3.7% 250.2%-0.9%-0.3%2.3%3.5% 300.2%1.1%0.0%1.2%3.0% %2.4%-0.1%2.4%1.0% %2.1%2.2%1.9%0.6% 450.0%1.5%2.7%2.9%1.9% %2.0%2.3%3.6%3.0% %1.5%2.7%3.9%3.8% %1.5%2.8%3.5%4.1% %1.2%2.5%3.3%4.1% %1.0%2.1%2.8%3.8% %0.9%2.0%2.5%3.2% %0.9%1.3%2.4%2.8% 850.2%0.8%1.8%1.0%1.8% Source: Calculated from period q x, Statistics New Zealand Females %2.5%5.3%1.6%2.2% 1.4%3.9%0.5%3.7%3.3% 0.9%2.6%3.3%0.9%3.7% -1.5%-0.4%2.0%3.8%2.9% -0.3%-1.3%1.8%2.8%4.1% 0.9%0.7%1.1%1.4%4.9% 0.7%2.0%1.1%2.0%1.5% 0.7%2.7%1.3%2.9%1.1% -0.5%2.1% 3.0%1.0% -0.6%0.6%2.9%3.3%2.1% -0.2%1.3%1.2%3.6%3.3% 0.4%0.6%1.8%2.8%3.5% 0.5%1.2%1.7%2.1%3.2% 0.3%0.7%2.4%2.2%2.9% 0.7%1.3%1.9%2.6% 0.9%1.9% 2.1%2.5% 0.9%1.8%1.5%2.1% 0.4%2.4%1.3% 1.5% Shading: Cell value exceeds average plus 1 SD for that time period (ages 20+ only)

Questions for today 1.What caused the golden cohort? 2.Did the mortality advantages of the UK’s golden cohort migrate to NZ? 3.Does NZ have a golden cohort? 4.What does this mean for future longevity in NZ?

Recent rate of mortality improvement: mostly higher in NZ, Males Females AgeNZE&WNZE&W 03.2%3.4%2.2%1.4% 53.7%1.4%3.3%2.1% 102.2%1.9%3.7%1.0% 154.4%2.7%2.9%2.5% 203.7%2.3%4.1%2.2% 253.5%1.5%4.9%1.4% 303.0%0.9%1.5%2.0% 351.0%0.5%1.1%1.4% 400.6%1.2%1.0%1.4% 451.9%1.2%2.1%1.0% 503.0%1.2%3.3%1.5% 553.8%2.4%3.5%2.0% 604.1%3.0%3.2%2.3% 654.1%3.7%2.9%3.1% 703.8%4.0%2.6%3.2% 753.2% 2.5%2.4% 802.8%2.6%2.1%2.0% 851.8%2.4%1.5%1.7% Source: Calculated from period q x, ONS and Statistics New Zealand

Average annual rate of all-ages mortality improvement: males Source: Calculated from period q x, ONS and Statistics New Zealand

e x NZ as ratio to E&W Source: Period life tables , ONS and Statistics New Zealand Period e 0, MaleFemale E&W NZ

q x NZ as ratio to E&W Source: Period life tables , ONS and Statistics New Zealand

Assumptions in national projections, medium scenario Annual mortality improvement rate England & Wales 2006 & 2008-based Varies by age; averages to 2.1% 1% except golden cohort up to 2.5% New Zealand 2006-based 1.6% for all ages0.6% for all ages Source: ONS and Statistics New Zealand New Zealand 2009-base Varies by age; averages to 1.6% (m) 1.7% (f) Varies by age; averages to 1.6% (m) 2.0% (f)

Mutually consistent projections? Source: ONS 2008-based projections, Statistics New Zealand 2009-base projections Period e0, female, 2060/1, by mortality scenario

Some answers, and more questions 1.What caused the golden cohort? This data consistent with ante-natal and early life explanation. 2.Did the mortality advantages of the UK’s golden cohort migrate to NZ? Possibly. Effect may be masked by NZ healthier environment at middle to older ages. 3.Does NZ have a golden cohort? Yes (sort of), and age-related mortality improvement trends.

Some answers, and more questions 4.What does this mean for future longevity in NZ? Address high accident mortality at young ages. Should super planning allow for a super- select cohort? Mortality is improving faster in NZ than UK: why? Are UK and NZ projections mutually consistent?

New Zealand Society of Actuaries Financial Services Forum 27 November 2009