Livelihood, Early Assessment, Protection LEAP – Ethiopia LEAP Training 21 to 23 April 2010, Addis Ababa

LEAP objective and purpose Based on 2006 Ethiopia Drought Index project experience Based on 2006 Ethiopia Drought Index project experience GFDRR Project that links drought and flood monitoring and early warning with the GoE managed risk management framework GFDRR Project that links drought and flood monitoring and early warning with the GoE managed risk management framework Software platform to calculate weather based indices: Software platform to calculate weather based indices: Monitoring of drought and other risksMonitoring of drought and other risks Guide to disbursements for a PSNP scale-upGuide to disbursements for a PSNP scale-up Integral part of the Ethiopia Risk Management Framework Integral part of the Ethiopia Risk Management Framework Ex-ante risk management tool Ex-ante risk management tool

Ethiopia Risk Management Framework Early Warning System with reliable baseline and trigger points Contingency Planning for appropriate and timely response Ex-Ante Financing of contingency plans Capacity Building for effective plan implementation II. Develop budgeted contingency plans IV. Establish timely emergency financing through use of contingency financing I. IMPROVE INDEX: LEAP III. Build planning and implementation capacity at regional level

LEAP products WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index and 19 related parameters (PET, water excess etc.) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index and 19 related parameters (PET, water excess etc.) Yield reduction estimates Yield reduction estimates Livelihood parameters (number of beneficiaries, cost for livelihood protection at Woreda level) Livelihood parameters (number of beneficiaries, cost for livelihood protection at Woreda level) Moisture index (rainfall/evapotranspiration comparison) Moisture index (rainfall/evapotranspiration comparison)

WRSI Index = intermediate product Crop and Weather Information Water Balance Calculation WRSI Index Number of Beneficiaries LPCI Crop Yields Crop baskets Rangeland Yields Shocks in Livelihood Studies Prices of Food

WHAT DO WE WANT FROM LIVELIHOOD PROTECTION COST INDEX? Represent cost of intervening early to protect vulnerable livelihoods Represent cost of intervening early to protect vulnerable livelihoods Signal amount of financial resources needed for regions to protect vulnerable livelihoods before harvest Signal amount of financial resources needed for regions to protect vulnerable livelihoods before harvest Trusted by GoE and donors to trigger timely resources Trusted by GoE and donors to trigger timely resources Provide early warning of livelihood stress levels Provide early warning of livelihood stress levels Crop and pasture monitoring tool Crop and pasture monitoring tool Easily customizable according to new purposes Easily customizable according to new purposes Open source and available for free Open source and available for free

Costs (Livelihood Protection Cost Index LPCI) Number of Beneficiaries for Livelihood Protection Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for Crops + Rangelands Weather data Crop + soil coefficients Yield reduction in %“hot spot” monitoring Target group: vulnerable population Target group: vulnerable population 80 to 90% of Rural Livelihoods directly or indirectly depend on rainfed agriculture 80 to 90% of Rural Livelihoods directly or indirectly depend on rainfed agriculture Developing the LPCI

CONTINGENCY PLANNING LPCI Livelihoods Appropriate and timely response Contingent Financing protects triggers activates implement Contingency Plans Livelihood Analysis e.g. SNNPR Risk Profiling Drought Risk Assessment Drought Impact Assessment Drought Scenarios  Types of intervention needed  Timing of intervention  Target population  Costs Implementing partners

Current LEAP phase Capacity building – LEAP training and study tours Capacity building – LEAP training and study tours Development of flood and pastoralist indices Development of flood and pastoralist indices Verification of LEAP drought index, stakeholder support Verification of LEAP drought index, stakeholder support Complete hand over to GoE Complete hand over to GoE

LEAP is being developed by WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk financing (Niels Balzer, Ulrich Hess – Vanessa Cardamone, Giuditta De Simone) WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk financing (Niels Balzer, Ulrich Hess – Vanessa Cardamone, Giuditta De Simone) MoARD intents to make LEAP corner stone of food security warning system (Mattewos Hunde) MoARD intents to make LEAP corner stone of food security warning system (Mattewos Hunde) Local Consultants (Addisu and Girma; crop and needs data) Local Consultants (Addisu and Girma; crop and needs data) NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback. NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback. CSA and MoARD provide data CSA and MoARD provide data Several government bodies provide feedback Several government bodies provide feedback International Consultants (Sandro Calmanti and Peter Hoefsloot) International Consultants (Sandro Calmanti and Peter Hoefsloot) WFP/VAM Addis, overall guidance, data delivery and feedback from the field (Elliot Vhurumuku – Teshome Erkineh and Dr Muktar Reshid ) WFP/VAM Addis, overall guidance, data delivery and feedback from the field (Elliot Vhurumuku – Teshome Erkineh and Dr Muktar Reshid ) World Bank finances through GFDRR Grant (Will Wiseman – Wout Soer) World Bank finances through GFDRR Grant (Will Wiseman – Wout Soer)

Data providers National Met Agency (rainfall and et0) National Met Agency (rainfall and et0) University of Reading (rainfall) University of Reading (rainfall) NOAA (rainfall estimates) NOAA (rainfall estimates) LEWS project (Livestock Early Warning System): Forage Maps LEWS project (Livestock Early Warning System): Forage Maps MoARD (crop and production data) MoARD (crop and production data) CSA (crop and needs data) CSA (crop and needs data) USGS (NDVI) USGS (NDVI) EUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVI EUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVI Almost all provide data for free -> enhances sustainability Almost all provide data for free -> enhances sustainability

What has been done so far First steps to LEAP three years ago First steps to LEAP three years ago Now version 2.20 Now version 2.20 Software will be updated regularly (next year floods and rangeland) Software will be updated regularly (next year floods and rangeland) 100 page manual and 40-page tutorial included 100 page manual and 40-page tutorial included LEAP website : LEAP website : Training has been provided in 6 workshops to over 75 Ethiopian professionals. Training has been provided in 6 workshops to over 75 Ethiopian professionals. Users: WFP, World Bank consultants, MoARD, NMA, and YOU! Users: WFP, World Bank consultants, MoARD, NMA, and YOU!

Recent LEAP developments NMA provides real-time rainfall through Dr. Muktar Reshid NMA provides real-time rainfall through Dr. Muktar Reshid ITHACA (Fabio Giulio Tonolo, Franca Disabato): methodology based on MODIS to detect floods ITHACA (Fabio Giulio Tonolo, Franca Disabato): methodology based on MODIS to detect floods ENEA (Sandro Calmanti) works on rangeland production estimates linked to needs ENEA (Sandro Calmanti) works on rangeland production estimates linked to needs Servers in Addis will be installed at DRMFSS and NMA (Mattewos Hunde and Teshome Erkineh) Servers in Addis will be installed at DRMFSS and NMA (Mattewos Hunde and Teshome Erkineh) Peter Hoefsloot integrates all above in LEAP Peter Hoefsloot integrates all above in LEAP

Continuously running LEAP activities Providing new data to the LEAP community through internet download and mail: Providing new data to the LEAP community through internet download and mail: rainfall estimates (also through mail)rainfall estimates (also through mail) NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall)NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall) NDVI (vegetation greenness)NDVI (vegetation greenness) Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping season Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping season Technical support through mail Technical support through mail

LEAP bulletins Monthly in Belg and Meher cropping seasons Monthly in Belg and Meher cropping seasons Maps Maps Highlights Highlights

Still to do Emphasis on making LEAP operational Emphasis on making LEAP operational Introduce improved needs and beneficiary algorithms into LEAP (based on work by Sandro Calmanti) Introduce improved needs and beneficiary algorithms into LEAP (based on work by Sandro Calmanti) Training trainers and software developers Training trainers and software developers Ensure continuous records - some datasets have gaps Ensure continuous records - some datasets have gaps

LEAP is free! Download from LEAP page (program + data = 76MB) (program + data = 76MB) If you need data by mail rather than internet update, please send an to

Drought Index Verification Correlation against historical production/yield and beneficiary data Correlation against historical production/yield and beneficiary data FAO/WFP natl cereal crop production,  87%FAO/WFP natl cereal crop production,  87% MoARD natl cereal crop yields,  75%MoARD natl cereal crop yields,  75% WFP beneficiary numbers,  81%WFP beneficiary numbers,  81% DPPA % of drought affected pop  80%DPPA % of drought affected pop  80%

Field verification Field verification Purpose: (1) Verify accuracy of drought index for rigor in capturing actual performance of dominant staple crops on ground; (2) Generate baseline date for further validation of indexPurpose: (1) Verify accuracy of drought index for rigor in capturing actual performance of dominant staple crops on ground; (2) Generate baseline date for further validation of index 13 woredas associated with 10 selected weather stations visited13 woredas associated with 10 selected weather stations visited Minor differences emanated from identified gaps in model but comparison against modelled estimates reveal that index fairly captured conditions in most woredasMinor differences emanated from identified gaps in model but comparison against modelled estimates reveal that index fairly captured conditions in most woredas Recommendation: Improved agro-met data inputs; further improvement and pilot testingRecommendation: Improved agro-met data inputs; further improvement and pilot testing Drought Index Verification II

A water balance model drives the index Index based on just rainfall too crude. Index based on just rainfall too crude. Water balance model: bookkeeping on crop water use Water balance model: bookkeeping on crop water use