Volcanological supersite in Iceland : Importance of the FUTUREVOLC project at European and global level Sue Loughlin, BGS and FUTUREVOLC partners

EU/Supersite community European Supersites GEO/GEOSS EU FP7 projects (e.g. MIA-VITA, VUELCO…) EU FP7 / GMES / Copernicus (e.g. EVOSS) EPOS CEOS WEZARD (meteorology community) Other Supersites (e.g. Hawaii)

Cost of aviation disruption 2010 UK loss £466 million Total global GDP impact $5 billion 100,000 flights cancelled 7 million passengers affected

How will FUTUREVOLC help? Accessible infrastructure Monitoring and analysis – multidisciplinary, timely, uncertainties Research into operations (source parameters, validation) Communication : within the project in Iceland trans-boundary Key end-users are within the project

Monitoring and analysis

Effective monitoring and analysis Ground, Air, Space-based Real-time and near real-time multi-parametric data acquisition and analysis Better understanding of physical processes Operational scientific decision-making Sigrun Hreinsdottir MODIS

1. Monitoring capacity Multiparametric monitoring Data management Web system Improved monitoring Timely recognition of precursors Short-term forecasting

2: The First Model Run Source parameters for historical eruptions Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson

3. Alerts and Early Warning

4: Model source parameters Mass eruption rate Grain size distribution Atmospheric interaction Gas composition Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson

5: Validation / data assimilation Validation of EO data Algorithm development Improved measurements and sampling Data assimilation for models 7 May 2010 (Simon Carn, OMI)

Research into operations

Building on what works… Aviation colour codes VONA Near real-time data Website reports … and others Icelandic community National and international media IAVW ICAO

Aviation colour codes / VONA

Research into operations FUTUREVOLC advisory group? Access to data and analysis Challenges of real-time source parameters Data assimilation FUTUREVOLC team comprises operational ‘End-users’

End-users forensic analysis (communication) 2010, 2011 Civil Protection Aviation sector Airlines Met Services (including VAACs) Scientists Geological Surveys Government departments

Communication

Questionnaire to key end-users Forensic analysis Best practice in trans-border communication

Planning and preparation Iceland, Europe, the rest of the world have different needs, handled at national level Airborne hazards Volcanic ash (and other aerosols such as sulphates, PM 2.5, PM 10 ), gas Risks to various sectors Impacts to aviation, human and animal health, agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems etc Planning and preparation under uncertainty Communication and early warning critical

UK operations and preparedness Higher Education Institutes

UK and Iceland Communication – first 24 hrs FAAM ARSF Atmospheric operations The scientific expertise The decision- makers Higher Education Institutes Courtesy: NCAS

From Stromboli online Eruption scenarios Iceland can produce eruptions of different: scales styles eruptive products durations Hazards include: Volcanic ash Other aerosol (e.g. Sulphate) Volcanic gases Glacier floods (jokulhlaups) Lahars Lava flows Pyroclastic density currents

Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruptuion Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS, 108 (38), Laki-type eruption

National contingency planning

Aviation risk reduction (reduced losses) Risk factors: Hazard likelihood Monitoring capacity (real-time and near real- time) ‘First model run’ source term parameters ‘Source term’ model parameters Early warning (effective system) Communication (research-IMO-VAAC-Aviation)

Volcano Observatory Best Practice workshops 80+ volcano observatories 2011 Short term forecasting 2013 Communication

Global Volcano Model A growing international network that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. It will provide systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on global, regional and local scales. It will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

FUTUREVOLC in Montserrat NERC : Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA)

Summary Research into operations Trans-border hazards and risks Risk reduction Increased resilience Best practice in data accessibility/multiparametric monitoring Best practice in communication Responding to stakeholder needs A unique opportunity…

FUTUREVOLC Thor Thordarson