The World System Economic and Military Constraints

I. The World System A. Composed of states B. Characteristics 1.Number of units – More than 200 a. Increased Uncertainty b. Increased War? 2. Distribution of Power -- a. Major vs. Minor Powers – Few major, many minor b. Concentration of Power – Power projection limited to US, handful of others 3. Political Organization a. Anarchy vs. Hierarchy --

GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS UNIPOLAR WORLD GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS GREAT POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS BIPOLAR WORLD MULTIPOLAR WORLD b. Polarity and Leadership

WEAKLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD STRONGLY POLARIZED MULTIPOLAR WORLD c. Alliances and Polarization

III. How does the World System affect States?

A. Power Transition Theory: Assessing the Risk of Major War 1. Assumptions a. System Level: World is Hierarchic DOMINANT POWER MAJOR POWERS MIDDLE POWERS SMALL POWERS

Region Level: Multiple hierarchies model

b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs. Dominant Power Challenger Dominant t PowerPower Unstable Preemptive war by Dom War by Challenger to change SQ

c. State Level: What creates transitions? i. Existence of challenger: status quo evaluations ii. Rise of challenger: development curve

2. Measuring Power a. GNP  Ultimately reduces to population! b. Relative Political Capacity – Taxes

3. Evidence a. Modern System

Modern System: Summary

b. The Long, Long Run: Population and Power

4. Predictions a. Population: India Rises, EU Falls

b. Economics: China Overtakes US in 20 to 50 years

c. Effects of Population and Productivity on Economic Strength

B. Hegemonic Stability Theory: Assessing the Global Economy 1. Assumptions: Primarily Economic Theory a.International Economic Cooperation Prevents Depressions (Bonus: Also prevents world wars)

c. Public Goods Elements i.World Economy as “Public Good:” Cannot exclude countries from existing in a prosperous world ii.Problem: World economic stability costs money (currency stability, free trade/lost jobs, military intervention, international law, etc.) – but no one wants to pay since their contributions won’t make a difference! iii.Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of stable world economy without paying costs

d. Hegemony Defined When a single state… i.CAN pay the costs of world economic stability ii.MUST pay those costs or stability won’t be provided iii.is WILLING to pay those costs because the benefits to itself outweigh the costs

e. State-level change: “Law of Uneven Growth”

2. Historical Applicability Theory doesn’t apply before 18 th century, according to HST proponents Theory doesn’t apply before 18 th century, according to HST proponents Why?Why?

a. Economic Growth is Recent 0 – ,000% 11th12th13th14th15th16th Century 17th18th19th20th21st

b. Increasing Importance of Trade

3. Evidence a. Free Trade i.Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British Hegemony (Continental System) – Consistent ii : Increased Protectionism: Corn Laws, etc – Inconsistent iii.1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -- Consistent iv.1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e. Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent

v. Free Trade and US Hegemony: US leads after WW II AVERAGE US TARIFFWORLD YEARRATETARIFF %40% % %25% %17% %13% 19756% %5%

b. Economics and War: Mixed Evidence

c. US Hegemonic Decline? The End of the Cold War and Trade

III. A Clash of Civilizations? “The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” “The fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.” Samuel P. Huntington

A. Assumptions 1. Conflict over values  not power or resources! 2. Key value divide changes over time a.Colonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the Rest b.20 th Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy, Communism vs. Capitalism c.Post Cold War: Cultural Identities 3. Key actors = civilizations, not states 4. Culture Clash  Internal / External Conflict a.Religion = Indivisible Stakes b.Identity trumps other concerns

5. The Map of Civilizations

a. Religion determines some civilizational borders

b. “Identity” determines the rest West – Latin America divide: ethnicity? West – Latin America divide: ethnicity? Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc? Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc? African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizations African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizations

6. Alignments determine civilizational conflicts

7. Universalism = Conflict a. No “universal” political desires b. Modernization ≠ Westernization

B. Implication: Internal Unity = Strength 1. Don’t be multicultural a.Enemies will try to foment intra- societal conflict b.Beware immigration from other civilizations 

2. Test: Does Immigration Cause Internal Violence? a. Europe Does High % foreign- born cause more conflict?

b. Immigration by Region: Doesn’t Match “Hot Spots”

c. Areas of inter-civilizational migration: Which civilizations are “weakened?”

C. Implication: Pushing Democracy and Capitalism = Civilizational Conflict 1. Democracy is Western value system: Separation of church and state, rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualism 2. Market capitalism is Western: Competition, property rights

3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”? a. World Values Survey – Questions about democracy, human rights, politics, religion, etc. Key Dimensions Democratic Performance: Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order Democratic Ideals: Democracy may have its problems but it is better than any other form of government I approve of having a democratic political system

b. Results (Islam) – i. Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!

ii. Other surveys reveal… Important differences do exist within Islamic civilization Important differences do exist within Islamic civilization

c. Results (Asia) i. “Asian Values” and Democracy

ii. “Asian Values” and Capitalism

iii. Summary: Support for Free Market Democracy

D. Implication: “Fault Lines” = Conflict (Fits Early 90s well, Not Before/After)

1. Counter-examples: Civilizational Unity? Many Wars Within Civilizations: Many Wars Within Civilizations: Orthodox Christians (Georgia), Latin Americans (Ecuador-Peru), Muslims (Iran, Iraqi Kurds, Iran-Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc), Buddhists (Burma), Hindus (Nepal, JVP in Sri Lanka), Africans (Rwanda, DRC) etc.Orthodox Christians (Georgia), Latin Americans (Ecuador-Peru), Muslims (Iran, Iraqi Kurds, Iran-Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc), Buddhists (Burma), Hindus (Nepal, JVP in Sri Lanka), Africans (Rwanda, DRC) etc. Which difference matters most? Which difference matters most?

2. “Islam Has Bloody Borders”

3. Internal Military Disputes: Is Islam Prone to Intra-Civilization Violence? Table reveals: West = more internal peace Sinic = less internal peace Buddhist = less internal peace Others, including Islam, unrelated to rate of intra-civilization disputes

4. Demographics of Islam What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? About 90%About 90% What percentage of Muslims are Arab? What percentage of Muslims are Arab? About 20%About 20% The largest Muslim country is… The largest Muslim country is… IndonesiaIndonesia Where do Muslims live? Where do Muslims live? Only 33% live in the Middle EastOnly 33% live in the Middle East 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa

5. Which civilizations fight the most? Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts…. …but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!

6. Tests: Statistical evidence on “Fault Lines” a. Little evidence of cultural wars b. Post-1989: i. States of different civilizations LESS likely to fight than states of same civilizations Controls for contiguity, power, democracy Controls for contiguity, power, democracy ii. Ethnic diversity ≠ civil war Controls for economic growth Controls for economic growth iii. Islam has not precluded democracy (rights)

c. Did end of Cold War increase conflict? i. No -- Large Decrease in conflicts

ii. No change in ratio of civilizational to non-civilizational conflicts

iii. No change in ratio of civilizational to non-civilizational state failures

d. Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?

E. Implication: Power Shift a. West will decline: Demographics and Development (recall Power Transition predictions) b. Beware an Islamic-Sinic alliance

F. Do people in different civilizations have important value differences? Important: Value differences mean democracy may produce foreign policy differences!

1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality = Division, Not Religious Leadership!

2. Gender: West vs. the Rest

3. Categorizing major values a. Tradition vs. Secularism and Survival vs. Self-Expression

b. Regional value differences exist

c. …But Country Trumps Religion!

d. Simplest explanation: Income!

IV. Treaties and Trade: Ties That Bind? A. Alliances: Limited Influence Allies much more likely to intervene, but probability still low (1 in 4 chance)Allies much more likely to intervene, but probability still low (1 in 4 chance) War occurs… Allied Not Allied Intervene, YES 25%2% Intervene, NO 75%98%

B. Trade Blocs: Constraints or Tools?

US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy? YearCountry % US Exports % US Imports 1985Israel Canada Mexico (NAFTA) Jordantrivialtrivial 2003Chile < Singapore Moroccotrivialtrivial 2005Australia ?Bahraintrivialtrivial 2006? Central America (DR-CAFTA) 21