Tinker, 2008 Scott W. Tinker President American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Workforce Observations AAPG International Conference and Exhibition Cape Town, South Africa October, 2008

Tinker, 2008 Demographics Demographics Cycles Cycles Balance and Bridges Balance and Bridges ObservationsObservations

Tinker, 2008 Age Demographics Developing Nations Age Demographics Developing Nations Source: UN Website Brazil '03 Saudi '04 India '01 Mexico '03

Tinker, Population (mm) Russia '04 Age Demographics Developed Nations Age Demographics Developed Nations Source: UN Website Age France/UK '04 China '00 US '04

Tinker, 2008 Age Demographics Source: UN Website Population (mm) Age Developed nations are older Developed Developing

Tinker, 2008 Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007 Geopolitical Shift 407 Q Young Old

Tinker, 2008 Demographics Demographics Cycles Cycles Balance and Bridges Balance and Bridges ObservationsObservations

Tinker, ,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000, Global Annual Production (mbo) World Oil Production (Thousand Barrels) Global Oil Source: Energy Information Administration As of January 2008 ( ), OPEC ( $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 $ Oil Price ($2007) Oil Price Average in $/bbl Inflation Adjusted 2007

Tinker, Oil and Economy Year GDP Growth (% points at annual rates) GDP Growth (Percentage points at annual rates) Data: BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of Commerce Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2007) Crude Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2000)

Tinker, 2008 Energy-Economy Cycles Global oil demand/supply (D/S) is tight Currencies are strong or weak Speculators hedge against currencies by buying oil Tight D/S and speculation drive up the price of oil High price dampens energy demand Lower D/S, excess production capacity (short term), weak economy drive oil price down Global interdependence impacts global markets Lower oil prices help stabilize the economy and…

Tinker, 2008 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 Oil Price 2000 $ Department of Geosciences,University of Texas Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Masters Department of Geosciences,University of Texas Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Masters

Tinker, 2008 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 Oil Price 2000 $ Department of Geosciences,University of Texas Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Ph.D.s Department of Geosciences,University of Texas Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Ph.D.s

Tinker, 2008 US Upstream R&D 2004 Dollars CERA Compound Cycles Year Data: BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of Commerce mm 1.7 mm 0.7 mm Employees Large O&G Co US Undergrad Enrollments in Geoscience (1000) Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2007)

Tinker, 2008 Demographics Demographics Cycles Cycles Balance and Bridges Balance and Bridges ObservationsObservations

Tinker, 2008 No problems at all Very difficult or impossible Difficult but possible All Percent HOW EASY IS IT TO MANAGE DUAL CAREERS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY? All All Age group QAd6422 From Chadud, N., Tealdi, L., Howe, S., and Sprunt, E., 2007, How companies attract and retain talented engineers whose spouses have careers, in Talent & Technology, v. 1, no. 4, p. 5–10.

Tinker, 2008 Goal: Reverse the trend of decreasing women in energy sciences throughout a full career Maintaining a science edge in the part time years Separating what we want to do from what we are willing to do Reverse discrimination Precedent setting and consistency of policies Avoiding flexibility dysfunction Dual Career Challenges

Tinker, 2008 Complex global issues pose technological and social challenges requiring an integrated approach Each sector has different time scales for decision making, and are motivated by different opportunities Science, policy and commercialization are critical partners for the future Bridge across the canyons and peaks Industry, Government, Academe Academe Bridge

Tinker, 2008 Summary: It Takes a Team! Student! Industry! Policy Maker!

Tinker, 2008 Fossil fuels are essential for many decades Fossil fuels are essential for many decades Price volatility is likely; must enjoy change Price volatility is likely; must enjoy change Global demographics are evolving Global demographics are evolving Talent is the fundamental priority Talent is the fundamental priority Summary Concepts Government/industry/academe must work together to bridge across the cycles in order to create a stable environment that attracts and retains the best talent in the world.

Tinker, 2008 A career in the energy industry is exciting, challenging, rewarding and at times terrifying! You cannot find a more meaningful issue on which to work for the coming century than global energy. Period. Get after it! A career in the energy industry is exciting, challenging, rewarding and at times terrifying! You cannot find a more meaningful issue on which to work for the coming century than global energy. Period. Get after it!