2002 AAPG Briefing Energy and Environment: A Partnership that Works Energy Supply Setting Pete Stark IHS Energy Group Washington, D.C. 23 September, AAPG Briefing Energy and Environment: A Partnership that Works Energy Supply Setting Pete Stark IHS Energy Group Washington, D.C. 23 September, 2002

Thesis: Public desires secure, reliable, clean, sustainable & affordable energy supplies that are available on demand. Balanced environmental and energy development policies needed to meet energy demand growth forecasts. Oil and natural gas expected to contribute dominant share of energy supplies for > 20 years.

Energy Supply Issues Confusing & conflicting information about energy supplies Challenging oil & gas demand scenarios Natural gas: the challenge & opportunity of this decade Public policy pressure for renewable resources Petroleum industry squeezed by volatile markets, financial constraints, anti-hydrocarbon pressures, regulations and limited access to prospects

Challenging Oil Demand Scenarios Challenging Oil Demand Scenarios World Oil Demand Consumption in MMbopd % % World % % U.S.A % % Source: IEA and EIA Is 2020 target attainable?

Confusing Oil Supply Predictions Campbell - Laherrère – Deffeyes School Oil ultimate recoverable: 1,694* MMMb –Produced 849 –Remaining 845 MMMb –Reserves/Production 36 Years Oil production will peak and commence decline by the end of this decade. (* 2000 data excludes heavy oil & reserves growth.)

World Oil Resources Major Non-conventional Liquid Resources In Place

World Liquids Resources

World Liquids Resources IHS Energy Group December 2001 Remaining recoverable Campbell IHSE 845 2, ,003

International Resources Discovered vs Resources Put On-stream

U.S. O&G Well Completions Wells X 1,000 Source: IHSE

U. S. Petroleum Imports vs. Production Issue: Energy Security Dependence on Oil Imports U. S. Petroleum Imports vs. Production Mb/d 1991 = 7,627Mb/d 2001 = 11,607Mb/d 1991 = 7,417Mb/d 2001 = 5,848Mb/d

Oil Supply Volatility OPEC Quotas & Production: MM Bopd Capacity (06)(11) (Dec) (04)(08) Capacity

Oil Supply & Policy Issues No near-term decline in oil supplies –Crisis policies not required. Orderly transition to alternate sources. Reduce import dependency – boost production –Access to prospective lands –Investment incentives – tax credits, royalties –Efficient regulatory processes – reduce delays & costs Supply security: –Enhance Western Hemisphere policies & alliances

World % % U.S.A % ~ % World Gas Demand Consumption in Tcf/yr World Gas Demand Consumption in Tcf/yr % % Source: EIA U.S ~ % U.S ~ % U.S September 9, % % % Sept. 6, 2002

World Natural Gas Resources Produced and Remaining Natural Gas Resources ( Including Reserves Growth and Conventional Yet-to-Find) (With Percentage Depletion at End-2001) Produced and Remaining Natural Gas Resources ( Including Reserves Growth and Conventional Yet-to-Find) (With Percentage Depletion at End-2001) Total Remaining Tcf = 11,750 Years = 124

U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2002 quadtrillion Btu © Petroleum Information/Dwights LLC d/b/a IHS Energy Group.