Sexual Networks in Contemporary Western Societies Fredrik Liljeros Karolinska institutet Stockholm University (Supported by the Swedish Institute for Public.

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Presentation transcript:

Sexual Networks in Contemporary Western Societies Fredrik Liljeros Karolinska institutet Stockholm University (Supported by the Swedish Institute for Public Health) S-GEM

How is it possible for Sexually transmitted Infections (STIs) to reproduce themselves when the average reported life number of contacts are as low as 6-12 in western societies? Why do we have STIs at all? S-GEM

Data sources National surveys + Representative -Validity? -Low Response rate -Only ego network data Clinical data + Network data -Validity? -Representative? Local networks + Network data -Validity? Representative? Online networks + Network data -Validity? Representative S-GEM

Representative Sample Population S-GEM

Network data vs ego network data Male Female ? ? ? ? ? ? S-GEM

Validity Women report twice as few partners on average than men do Find at least five explanations! Low response rate S-GEM

Data sources National surveys + Representative -Validity? -Low Response rate -Only ego network data Clinical data + Network data -Validity? -Representative? Local networks + Network data -Validity? Representative? Online networks + Network data -Validity? Representative S-GEM

Triangulation S-GEM

Basic epidemiology S-GEM

Reproduction Rate, R Average number of contacts * probability for transmission * duration of infectiousness Low for STIs ! S-GEM

Basic Reproduction Rate, R 0 Gottland S-GEM

Reported HIV infected in Sweden S-GEM

Reported Chlamydia infected in Sweden S-GEM

Explanations for the current situation Probably no single explanation! S-GEM

On average, your partners have more partners than you ! Newman Social Networks (2003) May and Anderson Nature (1987) S-GEM

The Core-Group Theory

Scale free distribution of partners Liljeros et al Nature (2001) National survey data S-GEM

Gay men attending a STI clinic in London Colgate et al PNAS (1989) S-GEM

Internet contact site data Holme, Edling and Liljeros Social networks 2004

Prefferential attachent? S-GEM

Concurrency A B C D E AC AB DC DE 2b. Contact network Line graph Morris and Kretzchmar Social Networks (1995 ) S-GEM

Concurrency A B C D E Contact network Line graph Kretzchmar and Morris Social Networks (1995 ) ? S-GEM

Concurrency A B C D E A B C D E AC BC DC EC 2a. AC AB DC DE 2b. Contact network Line graph Kretzchmar and Morris Social Networks (1995 ) S-GEM

Assortative interaction Newman PRL 2002 Liljeros Edling and Amaral (2003) S-GEM

Bearman, Moodey and Stovel Forthcoming in AJS (With permission from P. Bearman) Local network motifs S-GEM

Australia Thailand USA Holland Norway Spain England Greece Switzerland 231 cases Örebro Austria Falk et al STI (2003) Örebro hospital: Local of infection with Chlamydia S-GEM

Conclusions Standard deviation is of high importance Contact tracing are likely to be effective Targeted interventions Further reading…. Liljeros F, Edling CR, Amaral LAN Sexual networks: implications for the transmission of sexually transmitted infections MICROBES INFECT 5 (2): FEB 2003 S-GEM

Take home message Your partners have more partners than you have yourself! S-GEM