Step 2: Make a Causal Model Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL 084767 from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Step 2: Make a Causal Model Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute.

Step 2: Make a Causal Model This lecture continues from the lecture on making a list of causes

Step 2: Make a Model from Your List

Put Each Cause in a Node

Put the Effect to the Right

Connect Causes to Effect

Put in Constraints

Equivalent Probability Model

Each Node a Function of Nodes Linking to It

Combination of Multiple Causes p(Exercise | Ready to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Sleep early)= high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Sleep early)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Sleep early)= Between low and high p(Exercise | Ready to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, Ready to shower at gym, Slept late)= Between low and high p(Exercise | No plans to bike, No plans to shower at gym, Slept late)= Low

Out of Sight, Out of Mind Breakfast time

Probabilistic Dependence

Probabilistic Independence

Serial Nodes: Root Causes

Multiple Causes

Causal model Probability distribution Test against data Probabilities Can Be Tested Against Data

Lecture Continues Step 3: Thought Experiments