Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research SCAR Renewal: The 3 Cs Cooperation Coordination Collaboration Colin Summerhayes Executive Director Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Formed in 1958 by ICSU; Continues coordination of Antarctic research begun in IGY ; 32 Nations plus 7 ICSU Unions; Delegates and Science Groups meet every 2 years; Executive meets annually; Secretariat housed at SPRI, Cambridge, UK; Executive Director appointed April Background

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research SCAR Strategic Plan Provides roadmap to the future model for national committees response to the Review of SCAR (2000) response to Review by ICSU (2003) advice on development of the IPY ( ) response to a new challenge: -how to understand the role of the Antarctic region in the global system? response to the advance of global science programmes into the Antarctic region (form partnerships) a plan to bring in the new funds needed to get the job done

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Mission and Remit Mission to be the leading independent organisation for facilitating and coordinating Antarctic research, and for identifying issues emerging from greater scientific understanding of the region that should be brought to the attention of policy makers Remit Antarctica, its offshore islands, and the surrounding Southern Ocean including the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Five New Objectives initiate, develop, and co-ordinate high-quality international scientific research in the Antarctic region, and on the role of the Antarctic region in the Earth System provide objective and independent scientific advice to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings and other organizations on issues of science and conservation affecting the management of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean facilitate free and unrestricted access to Antarctic scientific data and information develop scientific capacity in all SCAR Members, especially with respect to younger scientists, and promote the incorporation of Antarctic science in education at all levels communicate scientific information about the Antarctic region to the public

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Structure

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Science Organisation Umbrella provided by Standing Scientific Groups [Geosciences, Life Sciences, & Physical Sciences] 5-6 Major Research Programmes lasting 4-10 years Action Groups to address short term initiatives (2 - 4 years) Expert Groups where a longer term view is required ( years): Oceanography Joint Committee for Antarctic Data Management (JCADM). New Open Science Conference every 2 years

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Partnerships with Global Research Groups WCRP: Climate and the Cryosphere Programme; Southern Ocean Implementation Panel; International Programme for Antarctic Buoys; SCOR: SCAR-SCOR Oceanography Expert Group (with iAnZone); Space Agencies : Bi-polar Cryosphere Theme study with IGOS-Partners IGBP: GLOBEC: Southern Ocean Panel; Interdisciplinary Climate and Ecosystems Dynamics programmme JCADM (NADC) - IODE (NODC) Ocean Data and Information Network development Sloan Foundation: Circum-Antarctic Census of Marine Life IASC: exploring partnership

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Policy Partnerships COMNAP - for logistics for science; Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting and Antarctic Treaty Secretariat - to provide scientific advice; CCAMLR - to provide scientific advice on Southern Ocean biology; ACAP (Advisory Committee to the Convention on Albatrosses and Petrels) - to provide scientific advice.

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Science Programmes AGCS: Antarctica and the Global Climate System ACE: Antarctic Climate Evolution EBA: Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic ICESTAR: Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research SALE: Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Antarctica and the Global Climate System Use: deep and shallow ice cores, satellite data, global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models meteorological and oceanic data Assess: role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate; recent climate variability;; climate change over the next 100 years; how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere IPY: test models and high-low latitude climate links; carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme.

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Antarctic Peninsula Warming Annual mean temp increase 3 °C in the last 50 years the largest warming in the SH. Sea ice decrease. Precipitation increase. Strong ENSO linkages. Changes in water masses on the continental shelf. What are the contributions of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing?

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Regional change Changes in winter sea ice duration (Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34, 2002) Antarctic Peninsula region. One of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Circum-Antarctic Wave Red = warm; Blue = cool; Grey = ice edge; T = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Upper Tropospheric Height Anomalies Associated with El Nino Events Rossby Wave connection The PSA signal is less robust than the PNA because of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies The link to El Niño

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Theme 1 - Decadal Time Scale Variability Focus on mechanisms of change Time scale of years to centuries – Holocene to next 100 years - the time scale on which much of the ocean variability takes place Atmospheric analyses only extend back a few decades, so will rely on extensive ice core data Investigate variability of SO water masses

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Theme 2 - Global & Regional Signals in Ice Cores Investigate routes by which global and regional climate signals arrive at drilling sites Quantify relationships between signals in cores and measures of the global climate system Focus on the non-linearity of the system Use IPY as a Special Observing Period to investigate the high resolution spatial variability of accumulation.

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Traverses of the International Trans- Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) 240 firn cores collected 20,000 km of snow radar Numerous publications

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Theme 3 - Anthropogenic & Natural Forcing Separate and quantify natural and anthropogenic changes over recent decades Produce a series of predictions for the next century based on various greenhouse gas scenarios Use regional models One prediction of Antarctic temperature change for 2100

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Theme 4 - The Export of Antarctic Climate Signals How does Antarctic climate variability affect conditions at more northerly latitudes Focus on Antarctic Bottom Water, intermediate water and mode water Examine the effect of removal of sea ice Consider how atmospheric variability affects water mass properties

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Thermohaline Circulation links Asia Antarctica

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research AGCS: Why Now? Recent advances in analysis of ice cores give annual or sub-annual resolution Atmospheric re-analysis data sets provide excellent data on variability over the last 30 years Regional Antarctic climate models are just becoming possible with advances in computer power High degree of interest in the media regarding Antarctic climate change If we delay others will move forward in these areas

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research AGCS Deliverables World class science papers in journals Input to the next IPCC assessment Better representation of high latitude processes in climate models High visibility for SCAR science Future climate predictions for other SCAR groups (life scientists) New data sets of Antarctic ice core and Southern Ocean data Important contribution to the IPY, e.g. the high resolution array of ice cores

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Antarctic Climate Evolution Climate and glacial history of Antarctica; New ground truth data from Eocene (40Ma) to end of Pleistocene glaciation (15,000 yrs); Processes governing Antarctic climate change and links elsewhere; Rrole of polar ocean gateways in exchanges of heat and freshwater. Model past climate changes in Antarctica; Develop/test paleoclimate models: Eocene-Oligocene events; Oligocene- Miocene boundary; mid Miocene climate shift; glacial warm events. Test and improve models of: ice sheet; coupled ice-sheet/climate/ocean; and coupled ice sheet and sediment. Data sets for testing models of future change. IPY: model (i) mid-Miocene climate shift; (ii) Pleistocene warm periods; (iii) Trans-Antarctic Mountains-McMurdo region; (iv) East Antarctic Ice Sheet; use new drilling technology to drill on land (SHALDRILL) and from ice shelves (ANDRILL)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Dome C Ice Core

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Initiation of East Antarctic Glaciation DeConto and Pollard 2003 Coupled GCM-ice sheet model

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic Evolutionary history of the biota. Evolutionary adaptations to the environment. Patterns of gene flow within, into and out of the region, and their consequences for population dynamics. Patterns and diversity of organisms, ecosystems and habitats, and controlling ecological and evolutionary processes. Impact of past, current and predicted environmental change on biodiversity and the consequences for Antarctic ecosystem function. IPY: (i) Circum-Antarctic Census of Marine Life, (ii) MarBIN (Marine Biodiversity Information Network)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Atkinson et al (2004) Circumpolar distribution of krill Euphausia superba

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Declining krill population Biodiversity Change Atkinson et al, 2004 Increasing salps

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research

Temporal Take Home Messages Molecular tools are solving problems of dispersal vs. in situ survival of groups Antarctica is not as isolated as it once was On the sub-Antarctic islands the rate of species introductions is high and their impacts are substantial The forecast is not optimistic: globally the interaction between climate change and invasion is of major concern

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Spatial Take Home Messages Antarctic diversity is remarkable Much remains to be done to achieve a full, spatial catalogue of diversity Essential for information-based plans for protection of the Antarctic environment SCAR, in collaboration with COMNAP, is providing such information –Circum-Antarctic Census of Marine Life, –SCAR-MarBin –Terrestrial genomics programmes

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Subglacial Antarctic Lake Exploration genetic diversity in the water columns and benthic sediments; geochemical and isotopic composition of lake water constituents; biological processes and water column stability; age of lake water; tectonic and ice sheet setting of lakes; relation between ice sheet processes and lake water circulation; lake and ice sheet histories; IPY (I) address technological challenges and environmental stewardship issues including environmental concerns and safeguards; (ii) initial exploration of selected lake(s) e.g small Lake Ellsworth (2007), larger Lake Concordia (2008))

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Under-Ice Lakes

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Interhemispheric Conjugacy Effects in Solar-Terrestrial and Aeronomy Research Coordinate bipolar research in solar-terrestrial physics and polar aeronomy Share experimental data from arrays of geophysical instruments. Use emerging Grid technology (computers linked via Internet) to share data and converge data and models Fill gaps in understanding of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction, and of the dynamics of the Earths magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms and coronal mass ejections. Learn how solar forcing affects the upper atmosphere at high latitudes Create a data portal linking geophysical databases to provide a systems view of the polar upper atmosphere, and encourage collaboration IPY Develop the appropriate observatories (e.g. complete coverage with radars) for observing geospace

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Action And Expert Groups Geosciences: Neotectonics; Digital Magnetic Anomaly; Southern Ocean bathymetry; Permafrost; Geodetic Infrastructure; Geographic Information; Marine Survey; Communication, Life Sciences: Birds; Seals; Human Biology and Medicine; Best Practices for Conservation; Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA); Biological Monitoring Physical Sciences: Plateau Astronomy Site Testing; Middle Atmosphere Dynamics and Electron Precipitation; Antarctic Peninsula Tropospheric-Ionospheric Coupling; Oceanography; Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research; Modelling and Observational Studies of Katabatic Winds; Tropospheric Aerosols and their Role in Climate; Solar-Terrestrial Processes and Space Weather; Astronomy and Astrophysics; Operational Meteorology; Ice Sheet Mass Balance and Sea level; International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition; Sea-Ice Processes and Climate; Ice-drilling technology; King George Island

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research New Strategic Elements Capacity building and education (SCAR Fellowship Programme: $40,000/year); Communication (web, newsletter, poster, brochures, articles, conference); Expand JCADM remit for data and Information management; Increase income Involve SCAR in the IPY

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research SCAR Involvement with IPY SCAR Executive Director is on the ICSU/WMO Joint Committee on the IPY (which steers the process); The Committee includes one current SCAR Vice President, one past SCAR Vice President, and several SCAR scientists; SCARs 5 major research programmes have been selected to lead IPY research clusters; Several other SCAR groups are playing a prominent role in IPY proposals; SCAR is in a good position to influence the way in which the IPY develops.

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research SCAR goals for the IPY Legacy A data and information management plan providing easy access to data A benchmark series of geological, geophysical and bathymetric maps A network of autonomous geophysical observatories to investigate pan- Antarctic phenomena. An integrated Southern Ocean observing system Improved coordination of cryospheric observations Understanding of major geological features for which no plate tectonic explanation exists (Gamburtsev Mountains)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Southern Ocean CO 2 (red = sink)

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Southern Ocean Circulation

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Southern Ocean Observing System Hydrographic Sections Rintoul et al CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR SO Implementation Panel

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Progress in Deploying Argo Floats

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Under-Ice Observing System HAFOS (Fahrbach) Moorings Surface Drifters Under-Ice Floats

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Engaging All Members To be fully inclusive, SCAR needs more Asian involvement: e.g.nominations for: SCAR Fellowships Membership of SCAR Action and Expert Groups Membership of the steering groups or subgroups of the 5 SCAR SRPs Officers of 3 SCAR SSGs SCAR-led IPY projects Speakers and attendees at the Open Science Conference in Hobart Serving time in the SCAR Office Most countries are already members of JCADM, but we need more national contributions to pan-Antarctic SCAR databases

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Thank you