Real-world emissions in the EU: An overview of recent evidence and policy implications Peter Mock, Anup Bandivadekar APEC VFEL Workshop Singapore March 24, 2015

2 Everyone drives differently – but clear patterns when aggregating data

3 Real-world fuel consumption of new cars in EU is about 30+% higher than claimed by manufacturers

4 The growing gap appears to be largely attributable models being strongly optimized to the test cycle

5 A growing gap means that only part of the expected fuel consumption/CO 2 reduction may be real

6 There are many ways to optimize vehicles for the laboratory testing

7 Introduction of the new test procedure will bring some improvement 130 km/h vs. 120 km/h more dynamic driving longer test cycle NEDC (1970s / 1990s) WLTP (2014) + improved test procedure

8 In the EU (and in much of the rest of the words) there is little in-use verification Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity Manufacturer Conformity tests about 10% of vehicles EPA vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km 50,000 km Selective Enforcement Audit + Confirmatory Road Load Testing EPA In-use verification tests on random sample Manufacturer In-use surveillance random / selected sample EPA Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity Manufacturer 1

9 Additional slides on in- use NOx emissions issue

Real NO x emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars 7 times higher than allowed limit – huge differences between vehicles 10

Chen, Y., Borken-Kleefeld, J. (2014). Amospheric Environment 88 (2014) ICCT’s PEMS test results are confirmed by remote sensing results from other researchers 11

12 As a result, real-world NO x emissions of Euro 6 diesel cars are not much better than those of Euro 3-5 cars

13 Even with independent re-testing there is a need to test vehicles on the road instead of the laboratory On-road testing using PEMS Laboratory testing Source for photos: AVL / ERMES Photos not related to vehicles tested for the study

14 Policy Developments addressing the ‘gap’ On the EU light-duty diesel NO x problem: European Commission developed the Real Driving Emissions procedure: From 2015 on new vehicles to be tested laboratory + road using PEMS From 2017 laboratory NO x + real-world conformity factor Heated debate on conformity factor expected for On the EU light-duty CO 2 problem: New test procedure (WLTP) ready to be implemented in EU in 2017 Even with WLTP, still no re-testing or on-road testing for CO 2 in EU

15 Are vehicle CO 2 emissions reducing in practice?

16 Are vehicle CO 2 emissions reducing in practice?

17 Why this is not only a problem for the EU Euro standards are used widely around the world: point out shortcomings of the Euro 6 regulation and implement Euro 6 RDE as soon as possible Test results indicate that there is a similar problem for real-world diesel NO x emissions in the U.S. Preliminary (very early) data for the Japan indicate that there may be a similar problem for real-world CO 2 figures The WLTP will be adopted in many parts of the world – getting it right in EU is important