TEAP Assessment Report 2014 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s

2014 TEAP Members TEAP Co-chairs Lambert Kuijpers Bella Maranion Marta Pizano Senior Expert Members Marco González Masaaki Yamabe Shiqiu Zhang TOC Co-chairs Paul Ashford (FTOC) Mohamed Besri (MBTOC) David V. Catchpole (HTOC) Lambert Kuijpers (RTOC) Sergey Kopylov (HTOC) Keiichi Ohnishi (CTOC) Roberto de A. Peixoto (RTOC) Marta Pizano (MBTOC) Jose Pons-Pons (MTOC) Ian Porter (MBTOC) Miguel Quintero (FTOC) Helen Tope (MTOC) Daniel P. Verdonik (HTOC) Ashley Woodcock (MTOC) Jianjun Zhang (CTOC) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s

TEAP Assessment Report The TEAP 2014 Assessment Report will summarise the findings of the various TOC Assessment Reports All TOCs are working to finalise their reports Over 120 experts from over 40 countries have been involved in the development of the reports TEAP co-chairs aim to have the TEAP report ready by February 2015 TEAP co-chairs will then be involved in drafting a Synthesis Report with the other Panel co-chairs M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s 3

Chemicals TOC Process Agents The number of process agent uses has decreased, but some key uses remain (e.g., CTC for caustic soda production) Feedstock use Total production of ODSs for feedstock use, (1.1 Mt (0.5 ODP-Mt) in 2012), is increasing Emission control of ODSs from feedstock use is important Solvents Update New HFO and HCFO solvents with low GWP are emerging in the market to replace HCFCs and HFCs The solvent use of n-PB is difficulty to justify, due to its new exposure limit of 0.1 ppm set by ACGIH M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s 4

5 Foams TOC M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s An overview of the transition progress and challenging areas Stage 1 of most HPMPs is now well advanced Worst-first has put emphasis on HCFC-141b phase-out in major foam sectors Negotiations between Governments and multi-national manufacturers can impact Decision XIX/6 foam targets A quantitative update on global consumption of foam blowing agents Growing demand and production capacity for efficient insulation products XPS growth is particularly rapid in certain Asian regions Hydrocarbons remain the dominant blowing agent in many polyurethane and phenolic foam applications

6 Foams TOC (2) M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s Emerging low-GWP alternatives Three HFOs now in various stages of commercialisation (HFO-1234ze, HFO-1233zd(E) and HFO-1336mzz(Z)) – able to meet the requirements of most foam types Some uncertainties on stability to be resolved for demanding applications and final cost could lead to the adoption of blends with less expensive blowing agents Energy efficiency remains particularly encouraging Updates on bank estimates and emerging management strategies The economics of foam recovery and destruction are challenging in many regions, especially where economies of scale are difficult to achieve Consideration is being given to enhanced manual processes to optimise Recovery and Destruction Efficiency (RDE) at lowest cost

Halons TOC Civil aviation is the least prepared to deal with diminishing halon supplies, and will likely be the one to request an Essential Use nomination in the future It is disappointing that after 21 years of R&D, civil aviation has only replaced halon in lavatory fire extinguishing systems, estimated to be less than 0.5% of total halon installed on aircraft Civil aviation has yet to validate and implement technically viable solutions, that have weight and/or space penalties A multitude of alternatives exist that collectively can be used to meet the fire protection needs of all non-aviation future applications, although with technical or economic penalties M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s 7

Halons TOC (2) Generally speaking, halon is only necessary to support legacy systems and their variants in the military and oil & gas sectors HTOC is very concerned that many users are relying on halon imports for their most important uses, e.g., civil aviation, military Parties may wish to revisit the global approach to halon bank management, in order to avoid a severe supply disruption that would lead to an Essential Use Nomination M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s 8

9 Medical TOC CFC phase-out for MDIs is almost complete (last few percent), with manufacturing conversion completed by An assessment of CFC MDI alternatives is planned, including market share and environmental impacts, e.g., carbon footprint. There are very few ODS uses of medical aerosols other than MDIs. MTOC is collecting data on HFC use in these applications. Alternatives continue to replace HCFC use in sterilisation. M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s

Non-QPS consumption for non-Article 5 Parties (as CUEs) will fall to less than 1% of the baseline in Non-QPS consumption in Article 5 Parties was 15% of the baseline in 2013; three Article 5 Parties requested CUNs for The key challenge is to find alternatives for nursery plant materials and dry cure pork. QPS consumption is at least 3x greater than controlled consumption and is declining in non-Article 5 Parties and increasing in Article 5 Parties, particularly in Asia. MBTOC reiterates that 30% to 50% of QPS consumption can be replaced. QPS emissions offset the benefits from phasing out controlled MB uses. Approximately 30% of the present decrease in stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is due to reductions in MB use. Methyl Bromide TOC M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s

11 Refrigeration TOC Low and medium GWP alternatives are used in varying amounts for all applications: natural refrigerants, HFC-32 and unsaturated HFCs. By 2020, about 75% of new refrigerator production is expected to use HC-600a. In commercial stand-alone equipment, hydrocarbons (HCs) and, to a small extent, CO 2, are replacing HFC-134a and R-404A. Two-stage CO 2 systems are considered viable in countries with moderate temperatures. Transcritical CO 2 systems start to be installed in tropical countries. M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s

12 Refrigeration TOC (2) HCFC-22 is still widely used in new & existing AC equipment in Article 5 countries. Refrigerants in new AC equipment include R-410A, R-407C, HFC-32 and HC-290. Various low GWP HFC(HFO) blends are being evaluated. Heat pumps with low GWP HFC blends and HFC-32 are being commercialised. CO 2 water-heating heat pumps are used in Japan. The main refrigerants used in chillers are HFC-134a, R-410A and HCFC-123. Ammonia and hydrocarbons are increasing and water as a refrigerant is becoming a serious option. A variety of refrigerants will be used in vehicle AC in the coming years: HFC-134a is used, HFC-1234yf will continue to expand and CO 2 is anticipated around 2017 M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 6, N o v e m b e r , P a r i s