ENERGY: SUPPLY AND DEMAND Dr. Ron Lembke

US Energy “Sankey” Diagram

Hot, Flat, and Crowded  Hot: Climate Change  Flat: Technology and Bandwidth  Crowded: More people, who want to live like us

T HE DEMAND FOR ENERGY

International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy Information Admistration, eia.gov

EIA Demand Scenarios

T HE SUPPLY OF ENERGY

Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),

Causality or Correlation?

When is the Peak? 2004 data

Different Scenarios m?id=38&t=6

Fracking

EPA: 2-4 million gallons per well = 200 to 400 tanker trucks of water

Where Does it Come From?

Where does our oil come from?

US Oil Imports, US EIA

Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook ~2009

Data, US EIA, 1/29/2015

Reserves, Production, years left Data: EIA, 1/29/2015

 Strip mine for bitumen, a sandy oil solid  Liquefy with steam and caustic soda NaOH  Slurry is pumped,  2 tons of sand for 1 barrel (1/8 ton) of oil  90% recovery with centrifuges  17% more GHG than regular oil production  Phases 3 & 4: “Keystone XL”  Phase 4 goes over Ogallala Aquifer Drinking water for 2m people $20b agriculture  830,000 barrels per day  Crosses earthquake zones Tar Sands 1.June, Feb, 2011

Keystone XL  36” diameter 910mm  up to 830,000 barrels per day  Phase III – 700,000 bpd  US production 12,500,000 barrels per day

Tar Sands Photo: Forbes

4b barrels 410T cu.ft 15b barrels 32T cu.ft 3,000 b barrels?

 Government Accountability Office and private industry  Seems to be consensus that there is that much oil there  1 trillion barrels total human consumption so far  GAO: Commercial development at least 15-20years away  May require huge amounts of water  They may get one barrel of water with every barrel of oil  Traditional fracking won’t do it  Oil tightly bound to the rock – heat to FIVE THOUSAND DEGREES  “In situ”: send a heater down below  Cost $65 per barrel Green river formation 3,000 BILLION Barrels?!?

The Price of energy

Gas Prices Data:

Price of Liquids

The Price of Fuel

EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011 Death Valley, April 2012

NV Electricity Prices Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94

US Coal Reserves

Pinion Pine Power Plant  DOE Clean Coal  Air-blown Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle  $335.9m, half DOE, half SPP  New gasification method  New desulfurization method

Carbon Capture & Sequestration  Porous rock formations  Small scale tests  Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained  So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE!  There are other pollutants  What if it gets out?  Natural gas stays safely underground

Solar Resources

Geothermal Resources

Wind Resources

Renewables’ Share growing

US Energy Sources

Summary  Demand for energy is going to increase significantly  Growing populations  Rising standards of living  Supply of energy not increasing as fast  Global oil supplies are finite  Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years  Alternative energy sources

,  Feb 2, 1962 ad in Life magazine  Humble merged with Standard to become Exxon