Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment,

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Presentation transcript:

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, Canadian Co-operative Assoc., CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, Pembina, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, World Future Council, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany. Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota Moving Vermont to the Top of the Class: How to Improve Vermont’s FIT Program by Paul Gipe Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewable Energy Has Come of Age Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Noordoostpolder, the Netherlands

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Montefalcone, Italy Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Galicia, Spain Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Freiburg -- Germany’s Solar City

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2009 World Wind Capacity More than 1/2 from Feed-in Tariffs

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2009 World Wind Capacity

Wind Growing Rapidly Germany: ~2,000 MW/yr 30,000 MW by 2012 Spain: ~2,000 MW/yr USA: ~6,000 MW/yr China: ~5,000 MW/yr India: ~1,500 MW/yr ~1% of World Supply Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Solar PV Growing Rapidly 20,000 MW Worldwide 7,000+ MW/yr $20+ Billion Major Markets Germany--3,000 MW/yr (2009) Spain MW/yr (2,600 MW in 2008) Japan--250 MW/yr USA--300 MW/yr California--200 MW/yr Rancho Seco, California Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Solar Photovoltaics Development Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

World Solar PV Capacity 2009 ~20,000 MW More than 2/3 from Feed-in Tariffs

Hohe Westerwald, Germany Setting the Stage Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Lackawanna, New York North Americans Have Been Dabbling Around the Edges of Renewable Energy Policy Little Recognition of the Crisis Facing the Continent Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Cowley Ridge, Alberta Profound Issues Confront North America’s Energy Future Climate Change Not Only Issue Transportation (Liquid) Fuels Very Little Public Transit Domestic Supplies Declining Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Profound Issues Confront North America’s Energy Future Our Total Dependence on Oil as a Transportation Fuel Leads to Tragic Consequences--Only Some of Which Make the News. Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Profound Issues Confront North America’s Energy Future Natural Gas Production May Have Peaked Critical for Heating Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgGoderich, Ontario

North American RE Market Growth Exciting, Yes Significant, Yes Not Nearly Enough by Any Standard Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Buffalo Ridge, Minnesota

North America Needs Massive Reconstruction of its Infrastructure Renewable Energy Development Can Reindustrialize the North American Economy Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Noordoostpolder, the Netherlands

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Friedrich-Whilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany... And Can Create a Rural Revolution Led by “Electricity Rebels” “Wind is a Local Resource. It is Our Resource. And We Want to Make Money from it.”--Wolfgang Paulsen (Stromrebelle)

Renewable Tariffs The Philosophical Context Geothermal: Colline Metallifere, Italy Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

San Gorgonio Pass, California Do We Want Renewables? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

If Yes, Then What Works Best? Who Gets Contracts Elite Few or All Who Want Them? How To Pay For Them RECs/ROCs/Green Tags Subsidies (PTC, WPPI) Advanced Renewable Tariffs --Differentiated Feed-in Tariffs Dunkerque, France Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Market Mechanism Status Quotas (RPS & Tendering) Typically Anglophone Countries Timid Targets Seldom Met Renewable Tariffs Once Only Non-Anglophone Countries Now Ontario, Great Britain, Vermont? Aggressive Targets Haverigg, Cumbria, BritainPaul Gipe, wind-works.org

Primary High Penetration of Renewables Quickly Secondary Equitably Distributed Ownership Rural Development Distributed Generation New Industry & Jobs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wieringemeerpolder, the Netherlands What are Our Goals?

Myths to Dispel Renewables are Free or Cheap But They Are Affordable & Worth It Renewables Can’t Be Added Quickly or Can’t Make a Difference Net Metering Makes a Difference Feed-in Tariffs Not Market-Based Feed-in Tariffs are Costly Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Husum, Germany

Renewables Can Be Added Quickly Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Germany Renewables: 10 Years--5% to 15 % Spain: 10 Years--0% to 10% Vermont: 5 TWh/yr

High Penetration is Possible Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2007, EWEA; Excepting California by Paul Gipe; IEA California: 2.3%.

Net Metering Little Net Benefit Overall (in MW) “Feel Good” for Participants With Renewable Tariffs, Who Needs It Europeans: Net Metering? Was ist das? Qu'est-ce que c'est? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Carleton College V82, Northfield, Minnesota

Net Metering TWh Contribution Solar PV: ~10% Worldwide Wind: ~0% Worldwide Wind & Solar: ~0.01% Worldwide! Conclusion: Insignificant Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Cowley Ridge, Alberta

Ydby, Denmark Feed-in Tariffs Deliver Results >50% of Wind Worldwide >90% of Solar PV Worldwide >90% of Farm Biogas Worldwide Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewable Tariffs & Solar Photovoltaics in Germany Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Solar PV in Germany ~3,500 MW in 2009! Total 8,000 MW ~8 TWh/yr of Generation New Target: 3,000 MW/yr! ~2%Supply in Bavaria ~1+%Supply in Germany Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

German Homeowners--New Revenue ~100 MW on Home Rooftops 2009 ~4,000 MW+ Total ~4 TWh/yr ~€2 Billion/yr Revenue Anyone with a Roof Can Do Solar in Germany! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

German Farms--Solar PV Crop ~1,000 MW on Barn Rooftops in 2009 ~3,000 MW Total in 2009 (€15 Billion) ~3 TWh/yr (€1.5/yr Billion) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

German Granny Flat What’s Wrong with This Picture? Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgNear Freiburg, Germany

Schönau, Germany German Churches Protecting Creation Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

German Renewable Generation Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

German Renewables 2009 ~93 TWh (16%) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Source: BMU

Germany’s Renewable Tariffs The Results (2009) 16% of Electricity 10% of Primary Energy Jobs Wind: 90,000 Solar PV: 50,000 Biogas: 8,000 Total: 300,000 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Hohe Westerwald, Germany

Cost of German EEG (2008) ~$50/yr/household Paul Gipe, wind-works.org BMU: EEG Costs <5%, ~€0.01/kWh, 2008.

Political Price-Political Quantity Market Mechanisms Both are Market Mechanisms Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

IEA: Quota & Feed-in Tariff Cost of European Wind (2005) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org FITs: $0.04-$0.06/kWh less costly.

Ernst & Young Germany and Britain Cost of Renewables (2006) Germany: 4x more energy generated 1/5 less relative cost of GB Renewable Obligation Certificates Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Manawatu Gorge, NZ

Over Cost of French ARTs Declining Cécile Bordier, Caisse des Dépôts, Dec Overcosts, 2008: ~0 due to increase in electricity costs. Bernard Chabot, Nov

Why the European Success? #1 Community Involvement Germany & Denmark #2 Advanced Renewable Tariffs 18 EU Countries use Electricity Feed Laws Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ferndale, Ontario Aggressive Targets Require Aggressive Measures Paul Gipe, wind-works.org German Renewable Energy Targets

Advanced Renewable Tariffs What Are They? Payment for Generation (Feed-in Tariffs) Political Price, Not Political Quota How Do They Work? Price Differentiation Paying for Solar, Paying for Wind Where? Germany, France, Spain EU countries Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewable Tariff Design Simple, Comprehensible, & Transparent Priority Access & Purchase Lengths Sufficient for Profitability Prices Sufficient to Pay for Generation Fair But Not Undue Profit Through Price Differentiation Altamont Pass, California Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewable Tariff Design Price Differentiation For Different Technologies For Different Applications For Different Sizes For Different Resource Intensities For Wind (Germany & France) For Solar (France) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

San Gorgonio Pass, California Differentiated Tariffs for Wind Distributed Benefits Only Accrue From Distributed Generation Differentiated Tariffs = Distributed Wind Reduces Pressure on Windiest Sites Profitability Still Higher at Windy Sites Reduces NIMBYism By Enabling Greater Participation Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Igny, Lorraine, France French Wind Tariffs Resource Productivity Method Fair Profits at Medium Wind Sites Not “Undue” Profits at Windy Sites Profitability Index Method (Chabot) Not Discounted Cash Flow Model Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

French Wind Tariffs by Specific Yield Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Chateau de Lastours, France

Paul Gipe, wind-works.org *"Il n'est rien au monde d'aussi puissant qu'une idée dont l'heure est venue." Victor Hugo. “Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come.” -- Victor Hugo

Renewable Tariffs in North America.. Unthinkable? Yes--Just 6 years ago “You’re Absolutely Nuts!” Andy Karsner, DOE, 2006 Today? No Now Possible Growing Trend in North America & Developing World China, India, Mongolia Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgGaspé, Quebec

Toronto, Ontario Renewable Tariffs... Developing Momentum Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

San Gorgonio Pass, California Grassroots Movement Explosion of Interest Groups Active Across US & Canada Public Out in Front Demands Aggressive Action Tipping Point Reached? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org San Gorgonio Pass, California

Renewable Tariffs Are In Play Nova Scotia to British Columbia Washington State to Florida Vermont to California US House Ferndale, Ontario Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario Moved First First Modern System of Advanced Renewable Tariffs in North America Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Montfort, Wisconsin

Goderich, Ontario Ontario “Gets It” Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Closing Coal Plants Delaying Nuclear Build Putting Renewables First Groundbreaking in North America

Ontario’s Green Energy & Green Economy Act Multi-faceted Efficiency & Conservation Renewable Energy Procure Through Feed-in Tariffs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Goderich, Ontario Ontario’s Green Energy Act The Most Progressive Renewable Energy Policy in North America in Two Three Decades Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario’s Green Energy Act Changes Public Policy on Electricity Includes Industrial & Environmental Policy Gives Renewables Priority In Utility Procurement & System Design Targets Industrial Development Targets Job Creation Goal: 50,000 Jobs in 3 Years Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs Differentiated by Size & Technology Differentiated by Application Tariffs Based on Cost of Generation Plus Reasonable Profit No Program Cap (Bring It On!) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Sarnia, Ontario

Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs First Offshore Wind Tariffs in NA First Aboriginal Bonus in NA First NA Policy for First Nations First Differentiated Solar PV Tariffs 5 Tranches or Classes Best Wind, Solar, & Biogas Tariffs in NA Competitive Internationally Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Prices Paid for Offshore Wind Energy Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Middelgrunden, Denmark Google Maps

Ontario Solar PV Tariffs 2010 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario Wind Tariffs 2010 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario BiogasTariffs 2010 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario’s Feed-in Tariffs No Subsidies or Grants Costs Borne by Consumers Not Taxpayers--More Egalitarian Community Wind Bonus Individual Farmers Qualify $0.01 CAD/kWh Bonus $0.145 CAD/kWh (€0.10/kWh) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Potential per Ontario Farm 2MW Turbine, 80 m Ø, 80 m Tower ~$5 million CAD Installed ~4 million kWh/Year (~6.5 m/s) ~$500,000 $0.145/kWh Simple Payback: ~10 Years After Payback: ~$500,000 CAD/yr Skibsted Fjord, Denmark Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Edison, California Solar PV Ontario Barn Roof 30 kW; ~$275,000 30,000 kWh/yr $21,000/yr Simple Payback ~13 years Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ontario Project Status 2,500 MW Awarded Contracts 1,500 MW to Come 460 MW Community & Aboriginal ~20% of Total 80 MW Residential Rooftop PV Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ferndale, Ontario

Ontario Project Status 650 MW PV w/ 500 MW of SOC PV ~1,000 MW PV 1,200 MW Onshore Wind 300 MW Offshore Wind Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Kingston, Ontario

Grading North American FITs 10 Criteria Program Caps Project Size Caps Contract Term Technologies Included Tariffs Based on Cost of Generation Tariffs Differentiated by Technology Tariffs Differentiated within Technology Wind Tariffs Differentiated by Resource Inflation Indexing Bonus Payments or Adders Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Grading North American FITs The Gold Standard Fuchskaute, Germany Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Grading North American FITs Historical FITs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario SOC--Good First Start for North America

Grading North American FITs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Grading North American FITs Existing FITs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Grading North American FITs Ontario & Vermont Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Grading North American FITs Proposed FITs Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

What is Community Power? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Local Responsible to the Community Locally Owned Cooperatives, First Nations, Farmers, Homeowners Fuchskaute, Germany

Why Community Power Participation ~Greater Acceptance Distributed ~Greater Resiliency Clean & Green (Mostly) Human Scale Local Ownership Creates New Cash Crop For Farmers, Homeowners, & First Nations Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Lynetten Co-op København 7 x 600 kW 4 Owned by Co-op 3 Owned by Municipal Utility Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Middelgrunden Co-op København 20 x 2 MW Off-shore 1/2 Owned by Co-op 1/2 Owned by Utility 8,500 Investors €570 per Share Visible from Christiansborg Palace ©Bonus a/s Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Co-Op & Farmer-Owned Wind Source: Dave Toke, University of Birmingham, 2005, 2008 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Community Power is About People and Opportunity Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Stromrebellen (Electricity Rebels) Democratizing Generation Creating Local Investment Creating Local Jobs Creating Opportunity--and Hope Denmark, Germany, and France, Minnesota, Ontario and... Vermont? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

Anton Bro Thyborøn-Harboøre Vindmøllelaug Near Offshore Share Cooperative 4 x 2 MW 35 Million kWh/yr All Information Public on the Web Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Josef Pesch, Fesa 45 MW 60 million kWh/yr Just One of Many Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Ursula Sladek, EWS (Elektrizitätswerke Schönau) 31,000 Customers Hydro, Solar, & Wind

Heinrich Bartelt, Dardesheim 62 MW Wind 380 kW Solar PV 5% Royalties 1% for Nearby Villages 2% for Landowners with Turbines 2% for Landowners without Turbines Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

François Pélissier, Erélia Le Haut des Ailes, Lorraine 32 MW Objectives New Jobs Locally New Opportunity Locally Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Phil Littler Shafer Systems Iowa 500,000 kWh/yr Local Landmark One Person Can Make a Difference Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Local People Helping Local People Hans-Heinrich Andresen Manages 16 Wind Farms in 16 Villages All Locally Owned 15 Owners in Smallest 400 Owners in Largest Now Planning Their Own Transmission Line! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Local Entrepreneurs Building Local Projects 2.6 MW Locally Owned Solar Plant Locally Developed, Locally Built, Locally Owned Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Nico Petersen, Solar Park Rodenäs

The Farmers of Nordfriesland Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany 1/12 Size of Vermont 2,000 km2 560 MW of Wind Community-Owned <1% of Land Area 1.3 TWh/yr 1/4 Vermont Yankee €100 million ($130 million)/yr

The Farmers of Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog 25 Farms, 160 Residents 1990 First Locally-Owned Wind Farm 2009 Each Added kW Solar PV Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

Never Underestimate the Ingenuity of Farmers When the Barn Doesn’t Face South Build a Rack That Will! Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgFriedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

Community Power is also about Faith in Yourself and in Your Community Yes, You Can Do This You Don’t Have to be Danish, German, or French Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Vermont--A Little Ontario? Ontario 30X Vermont Consumption ~ MW Vermont Equivalent ~15 MW Vermont Community Power ~5-10 MW Residential Rooftop PV Offshore? Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgSolar Park Rodenäs

The Country Needs Vermont Vermont a Beacon in USA The First to Act in USA Not California! Now the First to Get it Right? Time to Move to the Head of the Class Remember Fort Ticonderoga! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

What Vermont Needs Now Triple Program Cap to 150 MW No Cap with Anti-speculation Criteria Raise Project Cap to MW Micro FIT <10 kW 5-10 MW Set-Aside Differentiated Solar PV Tariffs 3-5 Tranches Differentiated Biogas Tariffs 3-5 Tranches Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

What Vermont Needs Now Differentiated Wind Tariffs Bonus or Adders for Farmer or Community Ownership Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Friedrich-Wilhelm-Lübke-Koog, Germany

Feed-in Tariffs “Turn farms, homes, and businesses into entrepreneurs” --Terry Tamminen, Former Chief Policy Advisor to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Goderich, Ontario Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Move From A Culture of Consumption to A Culture of Conservation Paul Gipe, wind-works.org --Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty Montfort, Wisconsin

Move From A Nation of Consumers to A Nation of Producers Paul Gipe, wind-works.orgLackawanna, New York

No Time for Half-Measures No Time to Lose Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec

We Need A Lot More Wind... Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Matane, Quebec

... A Lot More Solar Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Hinesburg, Vermont

Making the Green Mountains Greener More Wind More PV More Small Hydro More Biogas More Cow Power! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Searsburg, Vermont

... A Lot More Renewable Energy Technology for Life* *from N.F.S. Grundtvig, Danish Theologian Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewables... When You Look Closely Worth Every Cent Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Renewable Energy The Revolution Has Begun! Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand