OCDE Meeting 12/02/ A changing labour market for graduates in France GIRET Jean-François Céreq

2 The French context A rapid expansion of the students number during the last decades of the twentieth century A less expanding need for qualified labour A growing problem of graduate unemployment. A transition process from higher education more difficult and longer A problem of professional downgrading (or overeducation) and occupational mismatch.

3 Methods and data Normative methods to study overeducation and occupational mismatch. Over-education /professional downgrading The difference between actual qualifications held and required qualifications for the job (overeducation if positive) Affichard (1981) Occupational mismatch A non correspondence between the field of study and the job specialization Beduwé and alii (1993) Data : French Labour Force Survey National longitudinal data on French school and university leavers (Céreq)(Céreq)

Overeducation rate by educational level 3 years after leaving school (French labour force survey)

5 Over education rate evolution (longitudinal approach by generation of school leavers)

Occupational match for labour market entrants

7 The « double mismatch » First job obtained after leaving school (graduates) Only 32 % among young people see their qualification match and their job specialization match !

8 Match and mismatch, first job and five years later, (higher education graduates)

Correlation with other effects Over-education Wage effects: A wage loss (> 10%) Other effects A higher unsatisfaction rate A higher turnover No relationship with occupational training occupational mismatch Wage effects: A moderate wage loss (between 0 and 5%) Other effects No relationship with the unsatisfaction rate No relationship with the turnover No relationship with the occupational training

10 An example : the new labour market prospects for the bachelor's degree graduates The vocational bachelor degree: created in 1999 (three years of study after the baccalaureate) students must have first completed a two years of higher education either at university (Deug) or within a vocational degree (BTS or DUT). The third year is employment-oriented coherent with the three-circle framework of the Bologna Process can be followed by a master degree

11 Does a vocational bachelor tend to be really associated with specific outcomes ? An statistical evaluation students must have completed at least two years of higher education and are admitted only after the basis an interview. In other words, the admittance is based on a selection, which is not the case for general studies. statistical method based on non parametric matching estimator Idea : to choose a control group to match the participant group (vocational bachelor graduates) on as many observable attributes as possible in order to neutralize the selection effect

12 Wages and qualification mismatch 1. The wage gap between general and vocational bachelor : do the returns from a bachelor degree, which correspond to three years of study in higher education vary according to the type of programme (general or vocational) Results : a wage premium in favour of vocational bachelor graduates 1462 voc bach, 1256 gen bachelor ATT=>1462 voc bach, 1275 gen bachelor => Qualification mismatch Results : a lower level of overeducation for voc bach. 17% voc bach, 26% gen bachelor ATT=> 17% voc bach, 35% gen bachelor

13 End… Thank you

14 Overducation rate, 5 years after leaving school

15 Propensity score (probit) completing a vocational bachelors degree / an academic bachelors degree. Probability (Y=vocational bacherlor graduate) Educational background age in the first year of secondary education (non significant) final secondary education diploma (vocational and technical baccalaureate versus general scientific baccalaureate, other general baccalaureate) (significant) first course in higher education (significant) field of study during the bachelor year. (significant) Others characteristics : gender (significant) geographic area (significant) work experience during the study (significant,-) family socio-economic status…(non significant)

16 Public body under the aegis of the Ministry of National Education, Higher Education and Research and the Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion Assignments Céreq is involved in : the production of statistics, in research activity in providing support for the implementation of policies. A public pole of expertise in training and employment Advice and proposals for the training policy at regional, national or international level Resources 160-member staff, two third of them are researchers A Base in Marseilles Centre détudes et de recherches sur les Qualifications

CEREQS ORGANISATION Administrative Board Scientific Council Ministries in charge : Ministry for National Education, Higher Education and Research Ministry of Employment, Labour and Social Cohesion General Secretary Deputy Director Director International Relations National Partnerships Regional Network and Decentralisation DEVA Transition to Working Life 1 Head of Unit 14 researchers DFC Continuing Vocational Training 1 Head of Unit 13 researchers DTF Work and Training 1 Head of Unit 10 researchers DPMT Occupations and the Labour Market 1 Head of Unit 12 researchers Communication Informatics Administration, Finances & Logistics THREE SERVICES FOUR DEPARTMENTS THREE MISSIONS Associated Regional Centres A NETWORK