CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: whats the brief story? Mike Morris School of Economics, University of Cape Town and School of Development Studies, University of.

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Presentation transcript:

CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: whats the brief story? Mike Morris School of Economics, University of Cape Town and School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Situating SA Chinese imports/exports

Chinese African Trade 2005 OIL dominates imports from Africa 69.3% Also other raw materials - iron, cotton, diamonds, logs All iron ore & diamonds from SA Exports – mainly light manufacturing Clothing & Textiles, footwear, bicycles, etc

What this doesnt tell us Specificity of South Africa Indirect impacts of China on SA –In third country sector markets (need sector based research for this) –Exchange rates from Chinese activity

What Makes SA Different? Substantial Domestic Market –Size, Income Level and Sophistication –Concentration of Retail –Buyers Substantial Domestic Manufacturing –Diversified –Struggling to adopt WCM Substantial Mineral/Resource Base No Oil

IMPACT on SA? Dont know enough but ….. FDI? Clothing -Taiwanese Steel - Mittal Construction squeezed out of part of SSA Trade on Manufacturing? Substantial formal sector job losses in C&T (85,000), Furniture, Footwear decimated C&T systemic value chain competitiveness response to upgrade local manufacturing Aid? – Indirect impact through SSA

Indirect impacts: 3 rd country markets and exchange rates Two sector stories show this: Autos – 2002 work on competitiveness but at R15 = £. Now because of Dutch disease R10.88 = £ how survive??? C&T – Recent work for DFID – AGOA boost for exports but China 2 fold impact. Exports and Dutch disease affect Rand currency zone….