World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 2: Natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education The role of the WMO in natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education; Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

Potential role of Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services within more comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration 2 1 3

Monitoring and Evaluation of national practices Identification and Documentation of Good Practices and learning Lessons Development of Guidelines based on Lessons Learnt National and Regional Projects Implementation of projects, Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects Training, Institutional Capacities Building, sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects

Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated Standardization of Hazard Data, metadata and analysis tools –Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway

Initiatives underway for standardization of hazard information for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards FLOOD 1.Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway) 2.Drought assessment and mapping (underway) 3.Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway) 4.Other meteorological hazards data and mapping guidelines (initiated (March 2009) Severe Weather, Heat waves, Tropical Cyclones 5.Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …(next step)

First Implementation of Flood and Drought Hazard Mapping underway in South Eastern Europe (with UNDP, World Bank, ISDR)) Partnership Development Projects with other UN Agencies

Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction

Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES feedback Community Preparedness warnings National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms warnings feedback What is an Effective EWS? warnings preventive actions

Synthesis & guidelines developed from four good practices Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation and NMHSs first document of a series of guidelines that the WMO is developing in the field of Early Warning Systems.

Systematic documentation of good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems Four good practices in Multi-Hazard EWS Documented Cuba, France, China/Shanghai, Bangladesh Guidelines on Capacity Development in Multi- Hazard EWS with focus on Institutional Coordination and NMHS, nearly finalized Training package being published (Springer Verlag 2010)

Focus: Institutional cooperation and coordination Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management and National Metrological and Hydrological Services Programme: Training on good practices in EWS Training in guidelines on « Capacity development in Multi- Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation Interactive discussions to assess participating countries capacities, gaps and needs Opportunities for regional cooperation Outcomes are linked to development projects Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems ( )

South East Europe Southern and Eastern Africa Central America and the Carribeans South East Asia

Risk TransferRisk Identification Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Risk Reduction Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives: Information (data and forecasts): –Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data –Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) –Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) –Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts (portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis) –Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy) Technical support and Service delivery Meteorological Services Perspectives: Need for awareness raising among Met services Resources, ability and priorities to deliver Commercial,Security and Turf Issues associated with data accessibility Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters

Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated Training Materials to support financial risk transfer markets WMO/World Bank/WFP will be developing joint report on lessons learnt from pilots Information Service delivery: Experiences of National Meteorological Services for provision of data and information to this market will be documented ( )

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility UK Flood CAT Bond CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Pacific Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk European Agricultural Risk Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) Heating Degree Day Contracts

Developing Tools and Training on Climate Forecasting and Analysis tools Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate. Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

Impact of climate on sectors are linked to…. Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes –Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of meteorological and hydrological conditions from normal –Variations and changes in the onset of seasons, changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc.

Emerging Technologies (Weather and Climate Time Scales) Short- to Medium-Range Weather Seasonal Forecasts Short-Term Climate Long-Term Climate 0-14 days months to seasonsdecades to century Forward looking risk analysis for improved planning and risk managment Utilization in the financial risk transfer markets

IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007 Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically (IPCC, 2007) Trends in heavy rainfall Droughts Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts: Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors –Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers –to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers Strengthen observation networks More targeted climate research

Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers Washington Montreal Exeter ECMWF Toulouse Moscow Pretoria Melbourne Beijing Seoul Tokyo Lead Centre for SVSLRF Lead Centre for LRFMME SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WCAS

Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners –National: NMHS, sectors representatives –International/Regional: World Bank, –Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 21 World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel Fax Thank You