11 Methodology of CEPIIs Database on Trade in services Isabelle Rabaud, Research fellow at CEPII and lecturer at University of Orléans OECD-Eurotat Meeting of Experts on TIS April 2004

12 Purposes of CHELEM-Database CHELEM-Database provides coherent long term time series on: –International Trade, –GDP, –Balance of Payments. In the version of CHELEM-BOP of summer 2004, data from 1967 to 2002 will be available

13 TIS in CHELEM-BOP 13 items of Trade in services 4 aggregates : –Transportation services, –Other services, –Commercial services, –Total services. Data are in current dollars.

14 SOURCES Balance of Payments database of the IMF is the primary source of information Completed by national data for Taiwan, for instance For Hong Kong, data on early years, prior to 1998 are repatriated from the old CHELEM-BOP database.

15 Method to insure coherence of the data First, inconsistencies between each aggregate (transport and Other services and the sum of its components are corrected. Second, missing data for the latter years or inter- period of less than four years ahead are estimated. Third, for the beginning of period, data registered in BPM4 nomenclature, including memorandum items, have been reallocated to the new classification recommended by BPM5.

16 Consistency of the aggregates (1) usual causes If all components are null, the aggregate is reallocated to a residual item: –233: Transport, n.i.e or – 982: Services not included elsewhere, If gap=(Aggregate - components) < 0 for credit, the aggregate is recalculated as the sum of components. If gap = ± component, the aggregate is recalculated as the sum of components. If components < aggregate, residual item = initial value + gap.

17 Consistency of the aggregates (2) causes specific to transport Decomposition by mode seldom available before mid 1980s or 1990s Breakdown by mode is estimated in 3 steps: –Broad geographic areas are defined as in DOTS with distinction of enclosed and non-enclosed countries, –For a given country, for each missing year, the product of the aggregate by the average share of the mode of the area to which it belongs is reallocated to each mode. –For early years, the average shares of some areas are not available; then the aggregate is entirely reallocated to the residual item.

18 Consistency of the aggregates (3) causes specific to services No reallocation is made for other services. For total services: –From 1985 to 1990, for Japan, each service is estimated by the product of the aggregate and the average share during 1991 to –For Korea, the average share from 1999 to 2001 estimates –For Vietnam, the average share of each service in Asia is used.

19 Estimation of missing data Missing data for the latter years or inter- period of less than four years ahead are estimated: –For each item and each year, the share of each country in global transactions is calculated; –For each item, each missing value is then calculated as the share of the country in global operations during the preceding year.

110 Matching BPM4 and BPM5 classification ITEMBPM5 CBPM5 DBPM4 CBPM4 D Transportation Communications Q1DMA WQ1DMB W Construction Q1DM3A XQ1DM3B X Insurance Q1DM3A 7Q1DM3B 7 Financial services Q1DM3A TQ1DM3B T Royalties and licence fees Other business services Q1DM3A 4Q1DM3B 4 Government services